In the daylight hours the darkened rooms of Roll-A-Rama skating rink in Huntington, West Virginia are a sad sight of a once-booming business that started in 1962. At night, however, the rooms are filled with the sound of music and roller skates. Owner Levi Hogan often sees regulars in the crowd.

In its heyday, 100 kids came to the rink every day, but now only 30 come twice a week. The dwindling numbers are not due to lack of love from his customers, Hogan believes, but rather because of the struggling West Virginia coal mines that once supported thousands of jobs in the Huntington area. Hogan blames President Obama’s policies for economic issues.

“Families I’ve known for years are apologizing and telling me they can’t afford to skate,” Hogan says, “It’s because of the government. Officials above the local level don’t know anything about us and our needs.”

The reality is more complex, Dr. Marybeth Beller, director of Public Policy at Marshall University, says. The mechanization of miners’ jobs as well as high cost to retrieve coal and the low demand for coal are the real reason for the coal industry’s struggles. Nevertheless, the dissatisfaction with government action might tilt the race for West Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District, which includes Huntington, in Republican’s favor. 

The republican challenger, West Virginia Senator Evan Jenkins, spent $1.4 million in campaign ads attacking democrat incumbent Rep. Nick Rahall according to the Washington Post,. The National Democratic Campaign Committee named Rahall as one of the most vulnerable Democrats—if Rahall loses his seat, all three of West Virginia’s House Representatives will be Republicans.

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Like other close congressional races, the 3rd District seat proves to be more complex than a simple run between an incumbent and a challenger, and it begins with understanding the candidates’ backgrounds. 

Both Jenkins and Rahall were born in the 3rd District and are well-known in their communities. Rahall is particularly recognized because his family lived in the state for many years, according to Beller, and his constituents trusted him enough to let him represent them for over 20 years.

Jenkins, on the other hand, began his political career as a Republican before serving as a Democrat in the West Virginia Senate. He announced his return to the GOP when it was apparent that there wouldn’t be any other Republican to run against him for Rahall’s seat. Jenkins said that West Virginia is “under attack” from Obama and Democrats, according to a Politico article. 

“Jenkins is a really good thing for Republicans,” Beller says, “He’s well-known in Huntington, he’s a popular senator and he’s nice to look at on a billboard.”

The candidates are similar in their commitment to looking out for West Virginia’s coal interests and being accessible to their constituents, yet Rahall’s previous endorsement of Obama is hurting his campaign, according to Beller. When Obama promised to improve coal industry regulations in 2012, Rahall supported him. Recently passed environment-protection laws, however, increased dissatisfaction with Obama. Despite Rahall’s displeasure with the policies, the Jenkins campaign is capitalizing on the endorsement by linking Rahall to Obama, one ad saying, “For generations, coal kept the lights on, but then Nick Rahall pulled the switch.”

Although the Democratic Party is losing political traction in in West Virginia, many voters within the state identify as conservative Democrats, Beller explains. Since Bill and Hillary Clinton remain popular in West Virginia, Beller believes that racism also causes Obama’s unpopularity.

“Rahall [and other Democrats] never had trouble winning up until 2008,” Beller says, “But once Obama started running, we began to see more people voting for Republican candidates.”

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When it comes to determining who is best suited for the 3rd District, Beller believes that the candidate would have to be able to stabilize jobs in West Virginia.

“The people in West Virginia are and will be very, very hungry to have a stable economy,” Beller says of an economy that has been struggling since the 1960s.

In a race where the candidates are very similar, the winner might ultimately be determined not on what stances the candidates take on the issues, but rather on who comes out to the polls. 

The percentage of West Virginians older than 65 is around 17%, compared to the country’s 14%, according to the Census Bureau. This is significant, Beller says, because older, more conservative West Virginians tend to vote more than younger ones, and it’s likely that Jenkins will win the conservative vote.

But getting more people to the polls might be harder than can be expected. Some who feel passionate about issues in the district, like Hogan, are also disillusioned by government ineffectiveness.

“We need someone who’s going to do more than say, ‘Let’s get off our lazy butts and get something done,’” Hogan says, “I highly doubt anyone in Congress is going to actually do that.”