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Decision Day As Scotland Votes On Independence

David Hodari |
September 17, 2014 | 5:06 p.m. PDT

Staff Reporter

Ian Skone-Rees, President of the St. Andrew's Society of Los Angeles (David Hodari/Neon Tommy)
Ian Skone-Rees, President of the St. Andrew's Society of Los Angeles (David Hodari/Neon Tommy)

After 307 years of union, the United Kingdom and Scotland could be heading for divorce. 

One of the last polls before Thursday’s referendum indicated there was just a two point gap between those who said they would vote for Scottish independence and those who believed that the Union was "Better Together." 

The Ipsos MORI poll showed that 51 percent of respondents said they would vote against independence, while 49 percent wish to separate from the U.K. The poll is the latest of several which have demonstrated just how tightly contested Thursday’s vote will be.

READ MOREScotland Votes Against Independence

“When the Union went through, Saint Giles’ Cathedral in Edinburgh played the song 'Why Should I Be So Sad on My Wedding Day?'” said Lindsay O’Neill, an assistant teacher in the University of Southern California Dornsife history department.

O’Neill noted the 1707 marriage between Scotland and the rest of the U.K. originally resulted from the political needs of England (it was running out of royalty), and the economic needs of Scotland (it was running out of money). 

The prospect of a break-up is causing passions to run high in the U.K. After months of the election being seen as a foregone conclusion, the "Yes" campaign caught up to "Better Together" in the polls last week forcing a breathtaking U-turn in the tactics of the political establishment.

All three major party leaders—David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg—made their way up to Scotland to avoid political embarrassment. There are calls for David Cameron to resign if Scotland wins independence. The past week has seen a wide range of British cultural figures, from David Beckham to Daniel Radcliffe, coming out against Scottish independence. 

“I think it would be heartbreaking if Scotland were to become an independent and foreign nation,” said Ian Skone-Rees, President of the St. Andrew’s Society, Los Angeles, who used similar rhetoric to that of the British Prime Minister, David Cameron.

READ MORE: Scottish Independence Spells Trouble For The Rest Of Us

“For a lot of people, it’s emotional,” Skone-Rees said. The Saint Andrew’s Society has 225 members in the Southern California area all claiming some form of Scottish heritage, some “from the mists of time,” according to Skone-Rees. Amongst the members, he said, the split is roughly 70-30 in favor of staying together, although officially, the society is an apolitical one.

SEE ALSO: Scotland Sets To Vote On Its Independence

As smaller ethnic groups across Europe, such as Latvia and Estonia, have gained independence in the past decades, USC’s Vice Dean for Academic Programs Steven Lamy said that the Scottish push for separatism is part of a worldwide trend.

The motivation, said Lamy, whose Ph.D. is in International Relations, is one of “fragmegration” or “the desire to fragment to get closer to your ethnicity.” 

The main driving force behind the Scottish independence movement, Lamy continued, is now and always has been a financial one.

Looking as far back as the 1970s, Lamy said, “the rallying cry of the S.N.P. (Scottish National Party) was 'it’s our oil.'”

In this, Lamy touches upon one of the major economic arguments of the "Yes" campaign. The campaign argues that there is over £1trillion of oil in the Scottish North Sea. “I don’t think those resources are going to be there for a while,” Lamy said.

Professor Steven Lamy (David Hodari/Neon Tommy)
Professor Steven Lamy (David Hodari/Neon Tommy)

Ian Skone-Rees said that the promise of bringing oil wealth to Scotland is typical of the tactics of Alex Salmond, the Scottish First Minister. Salmond, Skone-Rees said, “is a very clever politician. He has not been honest with the electorate—there are so many issues which he does not have clear-cut answers to.”

One of those issues is currency. One of the major matters over which the campaign has been fought is that of Scotland’s use of the British pound. While threats have been made about Scotland no longer being allowed to use the pound, Alex Salmond has argued that no one can stop Scotland from doing so.

Steven Lamy pointed out the irony that Scotland, in behaving “like a teenager,” wants flexibility and independence. If Scotland left the union but kept the pound, it would no longer have a say in the direction of its currency, giving even more of its financial power to London.

Nicky Curry, a regular at the Robin Hood British pub in Sherman Oaks agrees. “[The "Yes" vote] is more of a financial thing.” Originally from Kensington, London, Curry continued, saying that if a vote for independence were financially harmful to Scotland, “they might regret it but they'd never admit it.”

Nicky Curry (David Hodari/Neon Tommy)
Nicky Curry (David Hodari/Neon Tommy)

British governmental sources do not give the impression that they believe that a "Yes" vote is likely. A press officer at the Ministry of Defence said that there were no British government contingency plans for the event of Scots voting yes. 

SEE ALSO: Scotland Tries To Secede From Britain

This mirrored the line from Jeremy Hodges of the Foreign and Common Wealth Office. “The rest of the U.K. as the continuing state would be largely unaffected,” he said.

When asked about the United Kingdom’s commitment of troops in the Middle East, Hodges said that “the continuing U.K. would continue to belong to the same international organizations and to exercise the U.K.’s current international rights and obligations.”

The same, said Steven Lamy, goes for Britain’s relations with the U.S. “I don’t think it's going to have any affect at all.”

British bookmakers, Paddy Power, are offering 1/5 odds of a "No" vote, and 7/2 odds of Scottish independence. It seems as though Britain and Scotland may yet work on a more perfect union.

You can reach Staff Reporter David Hodari here and follow him on Twitter here.



 

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