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Should Kentucky Be Favorites Come March?

Max Holm |
January 16, 2015 | 12:11 p.m. PST

Staff Reporter

SEC play in college basketball is well underway and the Kentucky Wildcats sit firmly on their mountainous perch at 16-0, with impressive wins over North Carolina, Texas, Kansas (a 32-point blowout) and rivals Louisville. Their 16-0 record is a display of the third toughest strength of schedule to date, and is one of two unbeaten runs in college basketball, the other being Virginia in the death star that is the ACC. With Louisville, Notre Dame, UNC, Duke, Miami and much more, it's unlikely the Cavaliers will run the table during the regular season, meaning Kentucky is the only viable option to go unbeaten through SEC play and enter the tournament unbeaten.

Now, after stellar wins over several top 10 teams prior to conference play, most college basketball experts saw Kentucky staying unbeaten until March and possibly bringing another championship back to Lexington. However, SEC play came and surprised us all, especially Kentucky. I mean, how could these kids not get cocky, even under John Calipari's wing, after killing so many giant programs? How could they not, when the SEC powerhouse of old, Billy Donovan's Florida Gators, weren't going to be relevant. But there the Wildcats were, struggling in the SEC in their home opener against Ole Miss. At HOME. In LEXINGTON. The Rebels took the game to OT, but Kentucky prevailed. 

At that point, it was assumed to be an anamoly, an outlier. But then the next game happened. At Texas A&M, it took not one, but two overtimes for Kentucky to avoid humiliation. Three days later, hope was restored with a 49-point beat down of Missouri in Kentucky.

So now what? Are the Wildcats back on track or is there more to those close games? Before exploring the dynamic of this team and its prospects for March, it's important to note the importance for this young team to play in a few overtime games so early in the campaign; it will serve the Wildcats when the SEC and NCAA tourneys roll around.

Now onto the players that make up this team because naturally they are the ones that will determine this team's success. It was another top recruiting class in Lexington led by Karl Towns and Trey Lyles. Those players came along with promising point guard Tyler Ulis and shooting guard Devin Booker. Towns and Lyles were both in the top nine in recruiting and Ulis and Booker were both top 25. But this team is hardly reminiscent of the Fab Five-esque team Kentucky had in 2012 with Anthony Davis. Unlike Davis's team that bolted for the NBA, the Wildcats reclaimed the promising Harrison twins, Willie Cauley-Stein, Dakari Johnson and Alex Poythress (who unfortrunately is out for the season) for last year. Poythress will be dearly missed, not for his on the court skills but for the intangibles he brought as the team's leader and one of its eldest players.

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With such a blend of new and old players Calipari had one major glaring issue: playing time. It's hard to imagine any of these top 25 recruits being told they wouldn't play and Coach Cal couldn't just abandon the development of last year's team (well he could but that wouldn't be conducive to the longevity of his program). So naturally, as he always does, Calipari whizzed up a new idea to befit all of his depth in talent: a platoon system.

Yes, Kentucky's basketball team was taking hockey shifts. The lineups have changed throughout the year as Cal has better understood his team's strengths and weaknesses and who plays well together (not to mention how Poythress' injury forced his hand a bit as well). While Calipari has actually gone away from the platoon at times, it's believed he will be returning to it in their game Saturday against Alabama.

With the return of the platoon, it's hard to criticize its pros. Everyone plays and everyone can play as hard as possible because of the shifts. It also puts an emphasis on effort and defense for a team that is going to be one of the most ferocious teams on the defensive end come March with all their length, which includes three seven-footers and the 6'10" Lyles. He and the freshman class have been heavy contributors on both ends of the floor. All four freshman are lagging 20 minutes a game and have each found a few games to make some huge plays. 

Meanwhile the Harrison twins have been struggling, which could hurt their draft stock, but we know they have the experience to excel and lead come March. Still, with Ulis outplaying them on most nights, Calipari may need to scratch the platoon and find his best five guys to be on the court in crunch time. Kentucky is another animal with Ulis running the show. The Harrison twins are averaging four more minutes a game than Ulis, which can't happen when he outplays them. The offensive struggles of Kentucky cannot go unnoticed as their season average of just over 76 points per game has dropped to 60.5 against elite defensive teams (Louisville and Texas).

In the tournament, Kentucky won't have a cupcake road to the Final Four and teams won't let the Wildcats into the paint where they thrive with all their studly big men. Kentucky is a modest 34% three-point shooting team with Booker and Ulis as their only real threats.

Another potential stumbling block will be free throw shooting. Kentucky is great at getting to the line, about 25 times a game, which is as much as Duke (very impressive). However they only knock down 68% of those. Being average at three's and poor at the line don't bode well for the Cats given how hard every tournament game is to win.

So without outstanding shooting from the line or beyond the arc, you'd think Kentucky would be beasts in the paint, which is partially true. However, their team FG% is 83rd in the nation. And while they've played well at times, they've also struggled against average and below average defenses.

This team is very young and learning every single day, so it should be much better two months from now. It's not all doom and gloom with the Cats ranked 20th in assists per game and 46th in turnovers, two categories that are also vital in March. But we really need to acknowledge this team's offensive deficiencies, especially in regards to the platoon system before we label Kentucky the favorites to win a National title.

The national title talk is of course prevalent because of the Cats' play on the defensive end which almost makes up completely for their offensive play. Coming into the season and from it's earliest days, it was very obvious Kentucky would be elite defensively and didn't take them long to live up to the hype.

This team is dangerous and, while in college basketball, every team is going to have major flaws, Coach Cal has showed us time and time again he is always aware of his team's issues and knows how to get a talented group to get it right by March.

Reach Staff Reporter Max Holm here. Follow him on Twitter @MaxSHHolm.



 

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