As everyone who watches the nightly news has undoubtedly heard by now, protests have been staged in Hong Kong over the mainland Chinese government’s perceived actions in tampering with the democratic election in 2017. Obviously, these protests pose a threat to the communist party’s agenda.

But, they could also present exactly the opportunity Xi Jinping needs to exert his newfound authority over the Chinese state.

READ MORE: Hong Kong Protest Stories On Social Media

Hong Kong has been a democratic state during the entirety of its existence. In 1997, it was handed over to China to govern after having been a British colony for centuries, and since 1997 it has been agreed that China would rule Hong Kong using a “one country, two systems” attitude--meaning that Hong Kong would remain democratic and maintain a great amount of autonomy while being a member of the Chinese state. As part of this system, the Chinese government has promised that Hong Kong will be allowed to choose the head of its state in 2017, but from a Beijing-approved list of candidates.

Out of the proposal from Beijing regarding the pre-approved list sprang a movement, Occupy Central, that has been around since March 2013. It was started by Dr. Benny Tai Yiu-Ting, a professor of law at the University of Hong Kong, when he published a paper calling for a great act of civil disobedience in response to Beijing’s meddling in Hong Kong’s election. The movement was started as peaceful and remained so until September 29, when 41 people, both protesters and police officers, were injured, and tear gas was used on Hong Kong for the first time since the 2005 World Trade Organization Summit.

The movement's most tangible goal, at least currently, is to push out the chief executive of Hong Kong, CY Leung, because he is seen by the protesters as too close to Beijing, and they fear that he will move the region closer to the mainland party. As of Thursday, the protests have not moved Leung, despite the ultimatum that if Leung does not resign by midnight on Thursday, demonstrators will begin to occupy government buildings. During a press conference, he stated outright that he will not resign despite public pressure, but that the government would be willing to hold talks with the protesters. He also warned the protesters, however, that their actions are illegal and that any attempt to occupy government buildings would result in police action.

READ MORE: Hong Kong: CY Leung Refuses To Quit As Leader

Police chief Steve Hui told reporters that, should the protesters attempt to enter government buildings, "the police will not stand by and watch. We will decisively uphold the law." 

Despite the government in Hong Kong extending an olive branch in the form of talks with the protesters, tensions are still high, and it remains to be seen what will happen if the protesters keep their word and attempt to enter the government buildings. 

All of this unrest in Hong Kong is not being taken lightly in the mainland.

Beijing has never looked kindly upon the protests in Hong Kong, or protests in general, but recently they have been increasing the volatility of their rhetoric. During a visit to Washington, D.C., Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke out against “illegal” protests in Hong Kong. Additionally, an editorial in People’s Daily, the main state-run newspaper in China, wrote that there would be “unimaginable consequences” should the protests continue, and State TV and Radio stations called for support for Hong Kong police in their attempts to restore order “as soon as possible.”

Moreover, Wang called the protests in Hong Kong an “internal affair.”

“All countries should respect China’s sovereignty,” Wang said. “For any country, for any society, no one will allow these illegal acts that violate public order.”

The interest in the protests in Beijing could stem from the shift in leadership style and the goals of the new party leader, Xi Jinping. 

Since the end of the Mao Zedong era in the 1970s, China, despite being technically communist and having a party leader, has been ruled under the system that a group of party elites make decisions, and that the leader must not have any gravitas or personality. The party had been, for decades, engrossed with the idea of “collective leadership.” All of that is changing under Xi.

Mandated to fight political corruption in the party after his 2013 election as president, Xi has taken his chance for power and is beginning to dominate the uppermost echelon of the party--shrinking his council from 9 to 7, consolidating positions of domestic security and usurping control of government reform, finance, overhaul of the armed forces and cyber security. Moreover, his campaign against corruption within the party is the most sweeping in decades, through which he has indicted countless party members as high up as second-in-command of the People’s Liberation Army. He has even targeted the retired chief of China’s security regime--the most senior member of the party targeted since Mao took control of the country.

In addition to political reforms, Xi has reformed the way the country views its leader. He is the leader most concerned with public image since Mao, and he even has a team to build his own public image--the first in Chinese history. He operates more like a democratically elected leader would, reaching out to the people, appearing on buses and at restaurants, using his wife in more of a first lady kind of role, and more. He wants to be viewed as a man of the people; he wants their trust.

In order to gain that trust, however, he must also stabilize the Chinese economy and expand their power around the world--and he’s already been acting on those areas as well. Xi has introduced his idea of a “China Dream” to rival the “American Dream,” and has been working to sure up the middle class. Additionally, he has been very active in pursuing Chinese interests abroad, as evidenced by his pursuit of the “Maritime Silk Road,” a trade route passing through the South China Sea and into the Indian Ocean with China-friendly ports all along the way. His interest in the infrastructure of Sri Lanka is part of this initiative.

READ MORE: Global Turning Points: A New Cold War In The South Pacific

So, the People’s Republic now has a more powerful leader who is only seeking to gain more power. This is where Hong Kong (and, to a lesser extent currently but not in the grand scheme of Asian politics, Taiwan) fit back into the equation. 

A separatist movement in Hong Kong, even if it is only a peaceful student protest, presents a real threat to the perceived power of Beijing, both nationally and internationally. If the party seems weak in any way in dealing with these protesters, or if Hong Kong continues to push itself away from the rest of mainland China, that presents a major roadblock to Xi’s attempts to make both China and himself more powerful. As such, do not be surprised to see swift retaliatory action on the part of Beijing.

Beijing clearly feels threatened by the protests occurring right now in Hong Kong; otherwise they would not be issuing such stern warnings in the (international) public sphere. So, given the combination of a power-hungry, increasingly monopolistic leader and a separatist group that threatens to undermine said leader’s authority, it is not too much of an intellectual leap to predict that, unless the protests are quelled by Hong Kong police, the authorities in Beijing will step in and be ruthless in their treatment of the protests. 

With an increased influence over Hong Kong, whether that comes through force in response to protests or the original agreement that allows Beijing to choose a short list for the leader of Hong Kong, the communist party has an increased influence over the business and finance sector of Hong Kong, one of the most vibrant in the world, that as of now acts as a connection between mainland China and the rest of the globe as far as business is concerned. One can only hope that any Chinese intervention in the area does not affect business as well, or that could spell trouble for global markets.

A possible conflict between mainland China and pro-democracy protesters scares business interests so much that HSBC and Standard Chartered have both pulled millions of dollars of advertising from pro-democracy newspapers in Hong Kong, and the Big 4 accounting firms have all co-signed a statement against Occupy Central.

Taiwan should be watching the events unfolding in Hong Kong carefully as well. Both territories have the same wishes of a democratic state, but should the ostensibly power-hungry Xi crack down on what he views as unrest in Hong Kong, it would follow that he would be more than capable of doing the same in Taiwan. 

In all, the current clashes between Chinese interest and Hong Kong’s desires could very easily spill over into civil strife. The ingredients are all present for a massive crackdown in one of the world’s most influential business districts--and the protesters should be wary about pushing Xi Jinping too far, for the sake of preserving what little semblance of democracy remains in the nation.

"Global Turning Points" is a new NT column on the critical international issues you might have overlooked. Check back Thursdays or read more here.

Reach Columnist Steve Helmeci here.