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Next Generation Console War Predictions: Sony's PlayStation 4

Andy Gause |
November 17, 2013 | 11:32 p.m. PST

Contributor

Sony has made all the right moves, now can it cash in? (Wikimedia/Carlitosmedina)
Sony has made all the right moves, now can it cash in? (Wikimedia/Carlitosmedina)
The next generation is here!  

With last week's launch of Sony's PlayStation 4 the fight for the hearts and minds of gamers has begun.   Although the Nintendo faithful may claim the eighth generation begin last year with the release of the Wii U.   Either way, there is a lot at stake for the big three gaming companies as they launch their new consoles and for consumers wondering which expensive system to plunk their cash down for.  

In this series, I will focus on each next-generation machine's strength and weaknesses, both from a financial and consumer perspective, and what each company can do to address the lingering issues.

First up is Sony with its PlayStation 4.  

More than any other company in the past few years, Sony has been attune to the needs and wants of the hardcore gamer.  This is incredibly important in the early stages of the console generation as hardcore gamers are often times the early-adopters for a console.   Not only will these hardcore gamers buy the console at launch, they also convince their friends to buy the hardware so they can all game together online.  

SEE ALSO: Thousands Line Up At Midnight For Sony's PS4

In the previous generation, the Xbox 360 was generally the system of choice for online gaming.  PSN may not be free anymore, but if Sony can steal some of Xbox Live's online gamers, they will enjoy the sustainable revenue from online subscriptions that Microsoft has seen in recent years.

Last generation, Sony cultivated a wide array of talented developers creating AAA title exclusively for its machine. Many forget that the PS3 was pronounced dead-on-arrival when it released alongside the Wii in 2006.   The lack of good games, bizarre marketing campaign, difficult cell processing technology, and high five hundred and ninety nine dollar price-tag made Sony seem behind the times.  

However, as the last generation wore on, developers like Naughty Dog with its Uncharted series, Sucker Punch with its Infamous series, and Santa Monica Studios with its God of War series, along with copious price cuts, helped resurrect Sony's ailing machine.  According to NPD numbers, the PS3 is still third in the last generation console "war" with only 76 million units sold, compared to Xbox 360's 78 million and Wii's 100 million.

SEE ALSO: Everything You Should Know About Next-Gen Gaming

Historically, Sony has always had a strong sales base in both Europe and Japan, with Xbox 360 controlling the American market.   But if Internet chatter and pre-order numbers are to be believed, Sony is poised to take back the gaming throne in America.  With Wii U sales projected to be WAY below the Wii's sale figures (more on that in upcoming days), Sony may be able to capitalize and dominate the Japanese, European, and American markets.

The reality is that PlayStation 4 is more powerful than the Xbox One, but their specs are similar enough that it won't make much of a difference to the average consumer.  However, the online controversy over Call of Duty: Ghosts running at 720p on the Xbox One and 1080p on the PS4 has pushed the hot debate over pixels into the mainstream.  This may not seem like a big deal months from now, but it matters in the eyes of hardcore gamers.  However, fanboy encampments on both sides rightfully agree that graphics do not sell consoles - games and software do.


The more promising trend for Sony is the wave of smaller, independently developed games coming to the console.  Last generation, the most successful downloadable games - such as Shadow Complex, Limbo, and Braid - were Xbox Live Arcade exclusives at one point.  Sony has made it priority to cultivate a strong cache of indie developers. This is most evident by the fact Jonathan Blow's newest game, The Witness, will be coming exclusively to the PS4.  

Blow, whose thought-provoking platformer Braid was a best-seller on the Xbox 360, has stated in tweets and interviews that he was disillusioned by Microsoft's stringent policies.   Microsoft has since changed their policies for updating downloadable games and has worked diligently to repair its relationship with independent developers.   But its clear from Sony's 2012 E3 press conference, where the company spoke extensively about indies and the long list of smaller downloadable exclusives coming to PSN, that they are forging a strong connection with the ever-growing indie community.

SEE ALSO:  Sony's PS4 A Hit With Indies

However, not everything is coming up roses for Sony.  

As surprising as it may seem, Sony is actually behind the exclusives curb at launch. Sure, Sony has Knack, Killzone: Shadow Fall and (in just a few months) Infamous: Second Son, but none of these seem like true system-sellers.  On the other hand, Microsoft has Ryse: Son of Rome, Dead Rising 3 and Killer Instinct. In the spring, Respawn Entertainment (the team headed by Call of Duty co-creators Vince Zampella and Jason West) will be bringing its futuristic mech shooter, Titanfall, exclusively to the Xbox One and PC. The early buzz behind Titanfall is that it could move units.

PlayStation fans can rest easy knowing that down the line Sony's slew of internal developers will deliver AAA exclusives throughout the system's lifecycle. It has done so before and it will do so again. However, during this first wave of games, Microsoft appears to have the more attention-grabbing exclusives.

There's also a problem with Sony's long-term strategy.

Unlike the either Nintendo or Microsoft, there seems to be a lack of innovation from Sony. It can be argued that Sony's early praise and hype in this generation has been more a case of not doing anything wrong than actually doing something unique.

SEE ALSO: Xbox One Acknowledges Feedback

In the past, Sony has always been willing to follow other's breakthroughs rather than forge their own path. Many remember the dismay sales of the Move, a blatant Wii motion control rip-off, or many of the social media features added to PlayStation Network following their success on Xbox Live. Nintendo has experimented with hardware and Microsoft with online functionality, but innovative new advancements have not really been Sony's forte in recent years.

Sony also has an identity crisis when it comes to the company's image. Nintendo has Mario, Microsoft has Master Chief (of Halo lore), but Sony?  

You can argue that Kratos, Sack Boy, and Sony's fake PR manager Kevin Butler are possible mascots, but are these characters popular enough to head the company's brand?  I believe Sony would be wise to push Uncharted's Nathan Drake as the company's spokeman this generation.   He could help brand Sony as the sophisticated, charming, and mature alternative to Nintendo's chubby Italian stereotype and Microsoft's faceless green space marine.

Even with these minor quibbles, Sony currently has the attention of both investors and, more importantly, gamers.   This can be attributed to all of the things I've listed, but more than anything else, the biggest factor to Sony's current success is price.   With the current hundred dollar price difference between the PS4 and the Xbox One, it seems hard to imagine Sony losing this console generation.

I believe that if Sony sticks to their plan of bringing as many exclusives to their console as possible, they will be the huge winners in this next generation.   Sony probably won't sell as many units as the PS2's historic 155 million units sold, because Microsoft seems like a worth competitor.   But if this console generation lasts six years and Sony maintains this early momentum, they could easily sell as many as 100 million PS4's.

Next week, I'll take a look at Microsoft's prospects as the launch of their polarizing Xbox One approaches.

Reach contributor Andy Gause at here.  Follow him on Twitter here     



 

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