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How USC Can Win The Pac-12 South Realistically

Jeremy Bergman |
November 4, 2013 | 12:40 p.m. PST

Senior Sports Editor

USC is getting hot at the right time with the Pac-12 South title in sight. (Kevin Tsukii/Neon Tommy)
USC is getting hot at the right time with the Pac-12 South title in sight. (Kevin Tsukii/Neon Tommy)
This week, all the talk around the Pac-12 will be angled towards Thursday’s division-defining matchup between #3 Oregon and #5 Stanford. The winner of this most recent “Game of the Century” will have the inside track to the Pac-12 North title and a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 7th.

But who will the meet the victor in the Championship? As hyped as Thursday’s game has become on a national scale, the battle for the Pac-12 South is the more intriguing and complicated storyline.

Following last week’s slate of games, #22 Arizona State (4-1) leads a tight race over #22 UCLA (3-2), Arizona (3-2) and USC (3-2). Every team has four games remaining, at least two of which will be played against a fellow South Division competitor. This last third of the season - or the last half of conference play - is set to be a battle of attrition, in which every week, every game and every play matters and any team - any team - can come out on top. 

Even USC.

That’s right, Trojan fans. After the humiliating loss at home to Wazzu, the Kiffin exorcism after the Arizona State debacle and a still-growing wrath of injuries, USC still has a shot - a realistic, legitimate shot - to win the Pac-12 South. I’ve dug up the tiebreakers and analyzed the schedules and there is a way that USC can realistically take the division, even if they fall to Stanford on Homecoming.

Week 11

USC travels up to Berkeley for the Weekender and destroys the hapless Cal Bears, whose only win this year has come against Portland St. - at least they’ve beaten one team from Oregon.

Arizona State thumps Utah in Salt Lake, proving that the Utes’ upset over Stanford was an aberration.

As the Bruins have in past weeks, UCLA starts off cold against Arizona, but Brett Hundley rallies the troops and tops the Wildcats, whose most impressive win has come at UNLV.

Arizona State 5-1

UCLA 4-2

USC 4-2

Arizona 3-3

Week 12

A loss to Stanford wouldn't knock the Trojans out of the picture. (Jerry Ting/Neon Tommy)
A loss to Stanford wouldn't knock the Trojans out of the picture. (Jerry Ting/Neon Tommy)
On a Friday night at the Rose Bowl, UCLA defeats underachieving Washington in a statement game. The Huskies have struggled against the top tier of Pac-12 talent, especially away from home.

The next day, Arizona overcomes Washington State in a desert shootout and the rival Sun Devils put down the slumping Oregon State Beavers.

In the biggest game of USC’s long season, the Trojans fall to Stanford in a tight, low-scoring matchup. Cody Kessler struggles against the top defense in the Pac-12, while Ty Montgomery goes off on the Trojan secondary. After this defeat, all will seem lost…

Arizona State 6-1

UCLA 5-2

USC 4-3

Arizona 4-3

Week 13

Intradivision play heats up in the second-to-last week of conference play. While USC obliterates the Colorado Buffaloes in Boulder and Arizona surrenders basketball-like points to Oregon, all eyes will be on Pasadena. 

In the defining matchup of the Pac-12 South, Arizona State will take on UCLA - both ranked and in control of their own destiny. Shockingly, USC fans will want to root for the crosstown rival Bruins in this matchup. A UCLA win keeps the Trojans just one game behind the division lead and sets up an all-important win-and-you’re-in scenario for UCLA the following week in the Coliseum; for that Thanksgiving matchup, the Trojans will, at the very least, relish the spoiler role.

So, for the sake of this article, the Bruins and Sun Devils pile on the points in Pasadena, rendering the game a pick'em. Tie goes to the home team. The Bruins win in overtime and set up a wild rivalry week.

Arizona State 6-2

UCLA 6-2

USC 5-3

Arizona 4-4

Week 14

Oh how sweet it would be to take the Pac-12 South with a victory over the rival Bruins. (James Santelli/Neon Tommy)
Oh how sweet it would be to take the Pac-12 South with a victory over the rival Bruins. (James Santelli/Neon Tommy)
If you bleed cardinal and gold, then you’ve been eyeing the late November matchup with UCLA for twelve months. As the Bruins were after USC’s 50-0 drubbing in 2011, the Trojans will be hungry, if not starving, for revenge over the boys from Westwood. The fans want it; the players want it; the coaches want it. Hell, I bet even Lane Kiffin wants it. 

Under the lights in front of a packed Coliseum crowd of 90,000-plus, USC’s swarming front seven, led by Leonard Williams and a finally-healthy Morgan Breslin, stuff Brett Hundley, putting pressure on the dopey-eyed sophomore and forcing errant throws. Led by a four-back attack, the Trojans’ diversified offense throws UCLA for a loss and grinds out long scoring drives en route to a 10-point victory.

But a satisfying win over the Bruins won’t get it done for USC. Arizona State also must lose.

Lucky for the Trojans, the Sun Devils play Arizona, their hated in-state rival. With the season already lost for the Wildcats, Rich Rod will pull out all the stops on offense, lighting up the scoreboard and turning this rivalry game into another old school desert shootout. A feat of competitive randomness, the Wildcats shock ASU behind a monstrous game for Ka’deem Carey.

Arizona State 6-3

UCLA 6-3

USC 6-3

Arizona 5-4

A three-way tie in the Pac-12 merits a different type of tiebreaker than would a two-way tie. If USC and Arizona State had been tied alone at the top - at 6-3 or even 7-2, if USC had beaten Stanford - then USC would lose in a head-to-head matchup because of its 62-41 loss in Tempe. 

Though a three-way tie also calls for a head-to-head, the matchup is between the three teams. Therefore, USC’s victory over UCLA raises its head-to-head to 1-1, which meets ASU’s and UCLA’s in this situation.

The next tiebreaker is a team’s Pac-12 South division record, and this is where USC wins out. In this universe, USC has lost only to Arizona State in the division, earning a 4-1 record. UCLA also boasts a 4-1 division record, its sole loss coming in the last week of the season at the Coli. Arizona State is not so lucky; with losses to UCLA and Arizona, the Sun Devils are kicked out of the tiebreaker with a 3-2 division record.

This sets up a head-to-head matchup between USC and UCLA, and a victorious one for the Trojans.

In short, with a little help from the randomness of rivalry games and a little help from math, USC can lose to Stanford, as projected, and still make the Pac-12 Championship game. And once the fated Trojans are there, all bets are off.

Call me crazy, but it’s starting to smell like roses.

Reach Senior Sports Editor Jeremy Bergman here.

Follow him on Twitter @JABergman.



 

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