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USC-Utah State Betting Preview

Max Meyer |
September 17, 2013 | 10:40 a.m. PDT

Senior Sports Editor

 

Can Cody Kessler and the USC offense outscore Utah State this weekend? (Neon Tommy)
Can Cody Kessler and the USC offense outscore Utah State this weekend? (Neon Tommy)
USC Trojans 2-1 (1-2 ATS) vs. Utah State Aggies 2-1 (2-1 ATS)

Saturday September 21st at 12:30 p.m. PST on ABC 

Latest Odds: USC -6.5 and Over/Under 50.5

Even though USC clobbered Boston College 35-7 this past weekend, they do not have a lot of time to celebrate. That's because the Trojans have to deal with by far their toughest challenge yet this Saturday, against Utah State and their star quarterback Chuckie Keeton.

Utah State, despite being on the road, has challenged national powers in each of the past four seasons. Last season, they played a tight one in Madison, losing 16-14 to Wisconsin. Against Auburn in 2011, Utah State lost a shootout 42-38. The Aggies also lost on the road 31-24 to Oklahoma in 2010 and 38-30 against Texas A&M. 

USC has played Utah State four times previously, and has won those four games by a combined score of 213-29. However, this Utah State team should make them nervous, as they are eighth in the country in scoring, averaging 49.3 points per game. The Aggies in their last 10 games are 8-2 against the spread, including beating the spread in five of their last six road games. 

Keeton has led the way in Utah State's three games this season, throwing for 923 yards and 12 touchdowns while completing over 78 percent of his passes. He's only thrown one interception, and is even the team's leading rusher with 187 yards. 

The scary part for USC is that Utah State and Keeton run a read-option offense, an offense which the Trojans struggled mightily defending last season.

The three quarterbacks USC could not stop last year all ran the read-option: Arizona's Matt Scott, Oregon's Marcus Mariota and UCLA's Brett Hundley. The three quarterbacks combined to average over 300 yards passing, 70 yards rushing and almost four touchdowns. 

This is USC's first encounter with a read-option offense this season, and it will be interesting to see the adjustments that new defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast will make. 

Utah State has a surplus of skill players too. They have four players who have at least 20 carries, compared to just two for USC. Additionally, Keeton likes to spread the wealth, as eight Aggies have at least five catches. USC has only four players that have caught five passes over their first three games. 

Yet, Utah State's offensive numbers are inflated.

MORE: USC-Boston College Betting Preview

They've played against Utah, Air Force and Weber State last season. After scoring 26 and losing to Utah, Utah State has put up 52 and 70 against Air Force and Weber State respectively. Other teams have scored against those two defenses though. Boise State scored 42 points against Air Force last weekend, and Weber State's defense has given up 110 points in their other two games. 

Utah is the toughest defense Keeton and Utah State has faced so far, and the numbers show it. Against Air Force and Weber State, Keeton averaged nine and 10 yards per attempt respectively. That number creeped down to 7.9 against Utah. The rushing attack only averaged 4.4 yards per carry against the Utes as well, and will have a much tougher time this weekend. 

Utah State certainly has an explosive offense, but they have not faced a defense as good as USC's. USC's defense is a top-10 unit in total defense (212.3 yards per game), run defense (43.5 yards per game), scoring defense (10 points per game) and interceptions (six). The first-team defense has only allowed six points in USC's three contests. 

Cody Kessler and the offense proved to me against Boston College that they can sustain long drives and put up points when needed. The dynamic duo of Tre Madden and Justin Davis will be tough for a Utah State run defense which has given up over 100 yards in each of their first three games. Additionally, with Lane Kiffin opening up the playbook, Utah State will have trouble defending Marqise Lee and Nelson Agholor, arguably the most talented wide receivers the Aggies will see this season. 

Based on Utah State's offense and the fact that USC's offensive weapons will give the Aggies a lot of trouble, I'm taking the OVER in a USC game for the first time this season.

This game will definitely be close, but USC's defense will make impact plays that will ultimately be the difference in this game. USC knows that it can't take Utah State lightly, especially after the Washington State debacle, and the Trojans will prevail for the second time this season against a Mountain West Conference foe. 

Final Score Prediction: USC 28, Utah State 24

My Best Bet: Utah State +6.5

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Reach Senior Sports Editor Max Meyer by email.

 

 



 

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