LIVE BLOG: 2012 Iowa Caucus
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11:35 p.m. PT: Mitt Romney has been declared the winner. With 100% of the precincts reporting, Romney won by just 8 votes.
10:40 p.m. PT: And now Santorum leads Romney by 4 votes. CNN says the Iowa Republican Party is still counting the votes from two of the precincts.
10:35 p.m. PT: With 99% of the precincts reporting, Mitt Romney leads Rick Santorum by - get this -one vote! Incredible!
10:25 p.m. PT: According to CNN, the Iowa Republican Party is still waiting for two precincts to report their results.
10:10 p.m. PT: CNN is reporting that Santorum is leading Romney by 18 votes, but votes are still being counted.
9:40 p.m. PT: Santorum has just finished speaking, and now it is Romney's turn at the podium. "We don't know what the final vote tally is going to be," said Romney, congratulating Santorum and saying he thought they were both winners.
9:30 p.m. PT: Latest results show Santorum beating Romney by 5 votes. 99% of the precincts have reported their results.
9:20 p.m. PT: Santorum is currently addressing supporters, proclaims "Game on!"
9:10 p.m. PT: With 97% of the precincts reporting, Santorum holds a slight lead over Romney. The two candidates are separated by about 30 votes.
9:00 p.m. PT: Rick Perry just gave a speech to supporters, where he said he is heading back to Texas to "reassess" his campaign.
8:45 p.m. PT: Santorum continues to hold on to his narrow lead over Romney with 96% of the precincts now reporting their results. A few thousand votes are still expected to come in.
8:35 p.m. PT: With 93% of the precincts reporting, Rick Santorum is ahead of Mitt Romney 24.7% to 24.6%.
8:30 p.m. PT: Fox News reports that, per Iowa Republican Party Chairman Matt Strawn, a winner will be announced tonight.
8:20 p.m. PT: With 92% of the precincts reporting, Romney leads Santorum by just 13 votes.
8:20 p.m. PT: Fourth place finisher Newt Gingrich is now addressing his supporters in Iowa, tells them goal is "to replace Barack Obama and get America back on track."
8:15 p.m. PT: The New York Times has a rundown of where the candidates are headed next: Romney, Paul, Gingrich and Santorum are headed to New Hampshire, while Perry and Bachmann will head to South Carolina.
8:10 p.m. PT: With 89% of the precincts reporting, Mitt Romney has a narrow leads Santorum 24.7% to 24.6%.
8:05 p.m. PT: Fox News is projecting that Ron Paul will finish third in Iowa.
8:05 p.m. PT: Ron Paul, running third in the caucus, is now addressing his supporters.
7:50 p.m. PT: Santorum regains lead over Romney with 88% of the precincts reporting. The candidates are separated by less than 50. We're definitely headed towards an exciting finish!
7:45 p.m. PT: With 75% of the precincts reporting, CNN reports Mitt Romney leads Rick Santorum by about 500 votes. Both are polling around 25%.
7:40 p.m. PT: Rick Santorum's lead over Mitt Romney is growing. With 54% of the precincts reporting, Santorum is beating Romney by 24.2% to 23.5%. The two are separated by about 400 votes.
7:35 p.m. PT: According to entrance polls, Rick Santorum's vote total is being bolstered by Tea Party supporters and religious conservatives, the Associated Press reports. Romney is doing well among voters looking for a candidate to defeat President Obama in the general election, while Paul receives strong support from Indepdents, young voters and those concerned about the federal deficit.
7:30 p.m. PT: Fox News is projecting the bottom of the race: Bachmann 6th, Perry 5th and Gingrich 4th.
7:15 p.m. PT: Those who wondered whether Rick Santorum's sudden rise in Iowa was a fluke can stop wondering: tonight's results show Santorum's Iowa campaign is for real. With 48% of the precincts reporting, Santorum (24.3%) continues to lead Romney (23.7%). Santorum leads by roughly 300 votes. Regardless of whether he actually wins tonight, Santorum's campaign - which, as of about a week ago, was all but written off - might emerge as the biggest winner out of the Iowa caucuses.
7:10 p.m. PT: Per NBC News' Chuck Todd: "It now appears we will NOT be able to call the race. One of those rare occasions where we have to wait for all votes to be counted."
7:05 p.m. PT: And the lead has changed yet again! With 46% of the precincts reporting, Santorum (24.3%) is narrowly leading Romney (23.8%). Paul (21.8%) is third, though his numbers appear to be fading somewhat.
7:00 p.m. PT: Parts of Western Iowa has been slow to report results, which could favor Santorum down the home stretch. From Nate Silver: "About half the counties west of Des Moines have yet to report any results, a potentially good sign for Rick Santorum, since he has led the vote in most of western Iowa so far. Southern Iowa, where Ron Paul is running well, has also been slow to report results."
6:55 p.m. PT: With 31% of the precincts reporting, the race in Iowa is still much too close to call. Romney (23.4%) continues to lead (Santorum (23.0%) and Paul (22.8%).
6:40 p.m. PT: The New York Times' Nate Silver wonders if this will be the closest caucus ever. From Silver: "With fewer than 300 votes separating first-place Ron Paul from third-place Mitt Romney in votes counted so far, it should go without saying that we may be headed for a photo finish."
6:35 p.m. PT: With 26% of the precincts reporting, Romney (23.1%) is now leading Santorum (23%) and Paul (22.9%). Newt Gingrich is fourth (13.2%), Rick Perry is fifth (10.3%) and Michele Bachmann is sixth (5.8%).
6:30 p.m. PT: We have a new leader! With 24% of the precincts reporting, Rick Santorum (23.2%) narrowly leads Mitt Romney (23.2%) and Ron Paul (23%). According to The New York Times, Santorum and Romney are seperated by just 7 votes!
6:25 p.m. PT: With 18% of the precincts reporting, Paul (24.2%) continues to lead, while Santorum (23.2%) is now second and Romney (22.6%) has fallen to third.
6:15 p.m. PT: With 16% of the precincts reporting, the top three are Paul (24.1%), Romney (23.%) and Santorum (22.9%).
6:10 p.m. PT: The actual results so far appear to mirror CNN entrance poll final results: Ron Paul (23%), Mitt Romney (23.2%) and Rick Santorum (23%). Just 13% of the precincts have reported so far, so it's still anyone's race.
6:05 p.m. PT: Latest CNN entrance poll results - Ron Paul (24%), Mitt Romney (23%) and Rick Santorum (23%).
6:05 p.m. PT: With eight percent of the precincts reporting, Ron Paul is leading, Rick Santorum is second and Mitt Romney is third.
5:55 p.m. PT: With four percent of the precincts reporting, CNN says that Santorum and Paul are in the lead, with Rommey following close behind. Gingrich and Perry round out the top five.
5:50 p.m. PT: According to Politico, Rick Santorum is currently leading with 26.2% of the vote, Ron Paul is second at 22.9% and Mitt Romney is third at 18.0% Keep in mind that there are still quite a few votes to be counted, and not all of the precincts are done voting yet.
5:45 p.m. PT: CNN is reporting the latest results of its early entrance poll, and Ron Paul leads with 24%. Mitt Romney is second at 23%, while Rick Santorum is third at 19%.
5:40 p.m. PT: With 1 out of 1,774 precincts reporting, Ron Paul is leading Rick Perry 18 votes to 7. Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are tied for third place with 6 votes (Source: Des Moines Register).
5:35 p.m. PT: While votes are still being cast at some precincts in Iowa, others have already started tallying the ballots.
5:25 p.m. PT: Ron Paul just addressed the Ankeny caucus, where he espoused his anti-war views.
5:15 p.m. PT: CNN is reporting more early entrance poll results: Ron Paul and MItt Romney are tied at 24% apiece. Rick Santorum is third at 18%, while Newt Gingrich is fourth at 13%. Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman make up the bottom three candidates.
5:10 p.m. PT: While Republicans await to hear which of their candidates wins Iowa, Barack Obama's reelection campaign posted a video today of the president's Iowa caucus victory speech from four years ago. "2008 Iowa Caucus Victory Speech: Promises Kept" highlights Obama's accomlishments since took office in 2009. Take a look:
5:05 p.m. PT: Official results should start coming in around 5:30 p.m. PT.
5:00 p.m. PT: First CNN entrance poll results are in: as expected, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are so far doing the best and make up the top tier. The bottom tier is made up of Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman (who mostly did not campaign in Iowa).
4:40 p.m. PT: With about 20 minutes until doors close and the cacuses begin, candidates are making one last plea to Iowa caucus-goers for their support.
4:25 p.m. PT: Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad is predicting a record turnout at the caucuses, the Des Moines Register is reporting.
4:20 p.m. PT: Is this a sign of low expectations? Newt Gingrich has quitely cancelled a "Caucus Watch Party" that was supposed to be held during the event, The Huffington Post reported. Instead, it was replaced by an event that is scheduled to start after the voting ends. All of the other GOP presidential candidates have events scheduled to begin before the voting ends.
4:10 p.m. PT: The Associated Press has a preview of Newt Gingrich's campaign strategy after Iowa. According to the AP, Gingrich - who took a major hit in the polls following a barrage of negative ads against him - is planning a full on assualt on rival Mitt Romney. The first shot will be a full page ad that will run tomorrow in afternoon in the New Hampshire Union Leader. The ad will reportedly call Romney a "Timid Massachusetts Moderate."
4:00 p.m. PT: With an hour to go until the caucuses, CNN just revealed that Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad predicted back in November that Romney would win the Iowa caucuses. Branstad gave John King the pick in a sealed envelope on November 4, with the caveat the he was not to open it until right before the primary. Was Barnstad's prediciton correct? We should know within the next couple of hours.
3:55 p.m. PT: Cain told CNN's John King that he doubts he will run for another political office, but, he says "never say never."
3:55 p.m. PT: Saying that he didn't want to fragment his base, Herman Cain refused to endorse a Republican presidential candidate during an interview with CNN this afternoon. Cain said his mission now is to help get the Republican candidate elected to the White House.
3:50 p.m. PT: Calling this a "50 state campaign," Rick Perry told CNN this afternoon that he planned to carry on with his campaign even if he has a poor showing in Iowa. Perry said he was headed to South Carolina next.
3:30 p.m. PT: What exactly happens during a caucus? Take a look at this quick primer from NPR for details on what you can expect tonight.
3:10 p.m. PT: Ron Paul has responded to Rick Santorum's charge that he is "disgusting." Paul appeared on Fox News this afternoon, where he told Neil Cavuto, "I would say that’s not a very nice thing to do." He added: "I think he wants to deflect away from some of the charges made against him about having been a supporter of Arlen Specter and he was a pretty liberal senator, he supported prescription drug programs, and No Child Left Behind, and voted for all of the foreign aid, so I would say he ought to be talking about that rather than calling me names.”
3:00 p.m. PT: Rick Santorum had some special guests at a campaign stop in Iowa today. The Duggar family, from TLC's "19 Kids And Counting" were on hand to sing the national anthem.
2:55 p.m. PT: With hours to go until the caucuses, Newt Gingrich was still looking for precinct captains and speakers during a tele-town hall, The Huffington Post reported. According to HuffPost, this could be an indicator that Gingrich is behind in the on-the-ground organization needed for the caucuses.
2:45 p.m. PT: Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post's "The Fix" is reporting that Romney will begin running TV ads in Florida tomorrow. The ad, called "Leader," has already run in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Watch the ad:
2:40 p.m. PT: How is presumed presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney spending his afternoon before the caucuses? According to The Washington Post, Romney is holed up in a hotel conference room prepping for the weekend's debates in New Hampshire.
2:15 p.m. PT: If you listen to Rick Perry, the Republican's quest to defeat Obama in 2012 is kind of like the D-Day landings in Normandy during World War II, or the beginning of the American Revolutionary War. "This election is about stopping a president of the United States and his administration that is abusing the Constitution of this country," he said to more than 200 volunteers, adding "This is Concord. This is Omaha Beach. This is going up the hill realizing that the battle is worth winning."
2:05 p.m. PT: Ron Paul has a new radio ad out in Iowa again Mitt Romney. In it, Paul calls the former Massachusetts Governor "liberal." Romney is not the first candidate Paul has accused of being liberal. On Monday, Paul told CNN that Rick Santorum was "very liberal."
1:55 p.m. PT: Want to know what Herman Cain, Donald Trump and Sarah Palin have to say about the Iowa caucuses? Then tune into Fox Business tonight. The trio will be contributing to the cable network's covereage of Iowa later today, Talking Points Memo reported.
1:45 p.m. PT: Newt Gingrich told a voter on Tuesday that he wouldn't make an exception for abortions in cases of rape and incest, Think Progress reported. When questioned whether he would allow exception, the pro-life Gingrich said: "No, I wouldn't make exceptions. What I would try to do is create a program that would enable women in those circumstances to have support and help them through whatever process they needed both in terms of counseling and in terms of if they wanted to give up the baby for adoption."
1:00 p.m. PT: Ron Paul has apparently won over the high school vote in Iowa - or at least he has won over the students at West Des Moines Valley High School at today's Rock The Caucus event.
12:50 p.m. PT: NBC's First Read has a live vote up on its site where readers can predict the winner of the Iowa caucus. The results so far show Ron Paul winning with more than 50 percent of the vote.
12:45 p.m. PT: President Obama will join in on the Iowa caucuses tonight via teleconference. According to the Associated Press, Obama will outline his first term progress and appeal to voters to help out in the upcoming campaign during an address to Iowa Democrats.
12:35 p.m. PT: Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley just told CNN that he will not back any of the GOP candidate ahead of the caucuses.
12:30 p.m. PT: The Los Angeles Times has an interesting look at the likely outcomes of the Iowa caucuses. The L.A. Times predicts that all of the possible outcomes--including those that show Paul or Santorum winning--favor Romney.
12:15 p.m. PT: Nate Silver of The New York Times has forecast the odds of each candidate winning Iowa. According to Silver, Romney has a 42 percent of winning the caucus, the highest among all GOP candidates; Ron Paul has a 34 highest chance of winning Iowa; Rick Santorum has a 20 percent chance of winning; and Newt Gingrich's chances of coming out victorious are three percent. The forecast shows that all other candidates have no chance of winning. Silver's predictions are forumalted based on numerous factors, including an average of recent polls and candidate momentum.
12:05 p.m. PT: How confident is Mitt Romney heading into Iowa? Well, his campaign evidently is already looking ahead to the Florida primary on January 31. Romney's campaign announced today it would begin airing a TV ad there. Florida is the fourth voting contest of the presidential primary season.
11:50 a.m. PT: Amid low polling numbes and even lower expectations, Michele Bachmann dismissed the idea that her campaign will be doomed by a poor finish in the Hawkeye State while also predicting that people will be surprised by tonight's results. Said Bachmann: "We think people are going to be very surprised with what the vote is tonight. We're confident. We're moving on. We're moving forward because this election is far from over. This is the opening chapter. Tonight is the first vote. We've got a long road to go."
11:40 a.m. PT: Rick Perry is not among the candidates expected to finish in the top three of tonight's caucus, but regarldess, he's making one last push to persuade caucus-goers to cast their ballot for him. Check out this latest video his campaign releaed today, called "America is Calling":
11:35 a.m. PT: Regardless of what happens tonight in Iowa, Barack Obama's top pollster is already claiming that the president will emerge as the winner. Joel Benenson told BuzzFeed that the GOP will be haunted through 2012 by their "self-inflicted wounds." Said Benenson: "The reality is that there’s a lot less enthusiasm for this field than people may have touted. This is a field where every candidate comes with significant flaws in terms of the general election, in terms of their economic values, in terms of their extreme positions, in terms being under the influence of the Tea Party. They’ve created problems for themselves."
11:25 a.m. PT: It's getting down and dirty in Iowa, as the candidates are going after each other in a last-ditch effort to sway votes. In an interview with CBS News this morning, Gingrich called Romney a liar. Meanwhile, Rick Santorum went after Paul, calling the Texas congressman, "digusting."
11:10 a.m. PT: The Occupy Des Moines movement most likely will not be a factor on Caucus Day. The Des Moines Register is reporting that no Occupy Des Moines protests are planned for today, though some are discussing the possibility of protesting at the hotels where the candidates are staying, or outside the after-caucus parties.
11:00 a.m. PT: According to the latest Des Moines Register poll, Mitt Romney is the favorite to win Iowa heading into tonight's caucuses. The poll shows that 24 percent of the caucus-goers favor Romney as their first choice. Right behind Romney is Ron Paul at 22 percent, while Rick Santorum finished third in the poll with 15 percent. Only 7 percent of Iowa caucus-goers are undecided.
Related Content: Politics Today: The Iowa Caucus 2012 Edition
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