Ron Paul Will Win The Iowa Caucus
Comments (30)
(Gage Skidmore, Creative Commons)
Every day Iowa has a change of heart in the polls—showing surges for Mitt Romney one day and Rick Santorum the next. The one and only candidate that has consistently polled favorably throughout the past few weeks is Ron Paul. Mr. Paul has the base support in Iowa that will come out and support him with their vote no matter what. That is important, and no other candidate can say that. What's more is that the voter turnout for the Republican caucus in Iowa is extremely low—and that is music to Mr. Paul's ears.
In 2008, then Republican candidate for president Mike Huckabee won Iowa with only 40,000 votes. Only 118,696 total votes were cast. This helps Ron Paul's chances at victory. His support in Iowa is energized, unflinching, and quite large. Paul has consistently polled in the 20% in every poll during the past few weeks, which puts him neck to neck with Mitt Romney, who is also polling around the 20% range. What puts Paul above Romney however is the support he has among Independent and Democratic voters that are fed up with the status quo. So Ron Paul has some support among Independents and Democrats—so what? This is a Republican caucus after all, why should non-Republicans matter?
The answers is simple: They can register as Republicans and cast their vote for Ron Paul the same day as the caucus on Jan. 3. A great article highlighting this rule can be read here. These voters are icing on the cake for Ron Paul. When they are combined with his 20 something percent support from real Republicans, he wins the caucus.
If Ron Paul does in fact win the Iowa Republican caucus, he can thank his fervent base of support, and same day Republican registration for his victory.
Call me crazy, but I think Rick Santorum, because of his late surge in the polls, will come in second. This leaves Mitt Romney, who will at that point fall to third. Of course all of this could be completely wrong. Maybe the Romney campaign will be celebrating the victory tomorrow night. Perhaps Rick Santorum will be the one Tebowing when the votes are tallied. It looks like Paul has this one in the bag, but we'll know for sure soon enough.
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Comments
dr paul has been in the lead since day one. the media has did a good job covering it up.
is ron paul nothing more than a "good protest vote"?
http://littlebiggy.org/3634467
Ron Paul 2012! End the Grouping. Begin the Uniting. Take back Control!
the Baby Boomers (sorry for Grouping) will be shaking in their boots.
I can't wait to see what happens, I hope you are right, I didn't know that democrats could vote in the caucus. He is the personality type I want to see as President unbending and unshakeable
I sincerely hope that you are right. I have been disenchanted with the options we have for political candidates for a long time now. This is not the United States I knew and Loved. The nations values have been so maligned that I find myself no longer routing for America. The political corruption, Our acceptance of corporate fraud, our medical system, our legal system, our insurance practices, our taxation system, our military activities, global stance and foreign policy all need to be reset! Ron Paul represents this ideal and I believe would try to reset this nation. I will be voting for Ron Paul for president regardless of if his name appears on the ballet. I simply will not vote for the awful options we have. Aside from Ron Paul all of the candidates are full of the same old tired, useless, BS rhetoric. They are all catering to lobbies and other interests. Iran is a perfect example. I will not support anyone willing to risk the lives of our kids unless our Freedom & sovereignty are in direct and immediate danger. Iran poses NO threat to the United States. If that nation even brought a military device anywhere near our shores we could kill every man, woman and child in that nation within 35 minutes. They are no threat to us what so ever. It is the Israeli lobby who once again wants the children of America to risk their lives helping their cause. When you look at the incredibly low Jewish representation in our military it really makes me think; "Why don't you handle things yourself!" If the United States did not help Israel in all of their little wars like 67 & 73 then the Arabs would not hate us the way they do. They never hated us before Israels creation, Never an attack against the US before Israels creation. The west carved up the middle east for imperial reasons long ago, then as we let go of imperialism, artificially create a nation, support it with money, trade deals, loans & military aid. England even imported much of it's population. All this done because a small group of people successfully lobbied multiple governments for many generations and all based on biblical history as if the bible was scientific fact. The Arabs see things very differently and our actions with Israel have now placed us in harms way. We have received nothing of value for creating Israel rather we have lost money, become targets of terrorism, seen the creation of OPEC plus oil shortages as retribution and have destabilized a part of the world while allowing an undisclosed nuclear state (Israel) to exist. Meanwhile we supposedly stand up for human rights yet we allow Mordechai Vanunu to be held in solitary confinement for much of his jail sentence and now is held in Israel and not allowed to leave after his sentence was completed. All this because the man took pictures of Israels nuclear weapons facilities and showed them to the world, proving that the Israeli government was lying to the world... Ron Paul, will stop aid to Israel and its foes. GOOD! bring the kids home and let them secure our borders!!!
Pray the Ron Paul wins its our only hope Iam Dem but will vote For Ron Paul if he is the (R) runner
This might sound funny, but It's a shame the rest of the world doesn't get on vote on this. Because let's be honest, the actions of the president of the united states of America, has an effect on almost everyone in the world. I'm from Australia myself, but everything your government does, ours seems to follow or atleast support( including war). Our Economy and monetary system is also setup the same way, and tends to follow yours also. No disspect to the American people but why do you keep voting for these idiots, it's like your media has so much control they've thrown the blanket over your heads- While other citizens from around the world sit back in horror. So please do the right thing this time. SAVE US ALL!!!- VOTE RON PAUL LIKE THE REST OF THE WORLD WOULD
Hi, I agree 100% with you, my friend of freedom. Did you know that if you slay 1 dragon via dungeoneers.com that the game programmer will donate $5USD towards Ron Paul via superbrochure .com? Tell your friends and countrymen who are like minded! its at dungeoneers. com and its easy and it's free, no download of any program necessary. Just register with a valid email address and confirm after you slay one. Paul for Peace in 2012!!
I agree with the picture presented. I think it's quite accurate indeed. Ron Paul 1st place, Rick Santorum 2nd and Mitt Romney comes in 3rd. I think Romney has New Hampshire and Paul will place 2nd there. However, there are still a debate coming up, and I think Ron Paul should unleash the whirlwind in South Carolina, Florida and Nevada. Time to bag this one! Ron Paul & Real Consistent Conservatives for 2012
I "pray" your prediction is accurate. We are in dire need of the leadership Ron Paul offers. If any of these other clowns win, get ready to trade your constitution in for Bibles.