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Neon Tommy - Annenberg digital news

Making Sense Of The 2010 Census Results

Callie Schweitzer |
December 22, 2010 | 10:48 a.m. PST

Editor-in-Chief

The release of Tuesday's 2010 Census data has left many wondering what these numbers mean for the future political balance of the country.

Though the United States' population growth slowed to its lowest rate since the Great Depression, significant political changes will come about as a result of the patterns and trends that appeared in the results.

POLITICO lays it out as the "beginning of a season of politics in its rawest form, a time of ruthlessness, scheming and, above all, self-preservation. For the next year, ambitious and sharp-elbowed legislators around the nation will look to Machiavelli, rather than Jefferson or Hamilton, for inspiration as they draw the congressional maps that will begin and end political careers and determine the partisan makeup of Congress over the next decade."

The description of the all-out fall-out continues, "Some incoming House freshmen are already marked men and women-before they've been sworn into office. Some veterans are about to be brusquely pushed into retirement. A few members of Congress will be forced into head-to-head battles with colleagues in order to survive another term."

As Neon Tommy previously reported, Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington will gain seats in the House of Representatives. Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania will lose seats.

One of the data's trends spoke loud and clear: "All five of the country’s fastest-growing states — Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Texas and Utah — are located in the Sun Belt and Rocky Mountain regions."

Oregon's Statesman Journal reports, "Although Oregon will not gain House of Representative seats because of the Census count, more representation from other Western states might mean greater emphasis on renewable energy, water resources and other issues that affect the West."

Mark Greenbaum at Salon writes that the results could be "devastating" for Democrats if President Obama isn't ready to take on the GOP:

"The sweeping gains Republicans posted in gubernatorial and state legislative races last month will give them control of the map-making process in virtually every key malleable state. In other words, the GOP could be positioned to use redistricting to cement its new majority in the House for years to come.

If Republicans do decide to mount a concerted push to radically redraw congressional maps in their favor, they could potentially squeeze out an impressive number of new seats. But they could also be stopped in their tracks -- if the Obama administration is willing to use the Voting Rights Act to fight them."

But Joel Meares over at Columbia Journalism review notes, "The general shift is a swell in the populations of the south and the west. While most have declared this a big advantage for the GOP—population growth in the south and west favors Republican-held states and districts—the rise in minority populations, traditionally part of the Democratic base, means the jury is still out on which party is best positioned to take advantage of America’s new demographics."



 

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