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How To Fix The Lakers: A Step-By-Step Guide

Ken Mashinchi |
November 13, 2014 | 2:36 p.m. PST

Staff Reporter

Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are three steps up away from contending. (@Lakers/Twitter)
Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are three steps up away from contending. (@Lakers/Twitter)

There has always been a magic to the Los Angeles Lakers, and, no, I am not just talking about Magic Johnson.

They have always been the best in the West, and that all started with Jerry West.

The Lakers have always been seen as worthy of championships, especially the nine they have won since drafting James Worthy first overall in 1982. 

So why the excruciating downfall the last three years?

Is the magic gone? Has the West become stronger? Are the Lakers still worthy of championships? 

Enough questions; no more harping on Kobe and his contract or likeability, no more dwelling on the failed Chris Paul trade in 2011, no more wishing for Ron Metta World Peace Artest to come back and save the day. Ok, ok, you can still dwell on the Chris Paul trade.

Moving on…how do these Lakers rise from the cellar of the NBA to rejoin the elite ranks? 

Here is how they can get back to elite in three years tops.

1. Trade for a point guard

Jeremy Lin is the man in charge this year, but while he has had great moments in the early part of the season, he is not the long term answer for the Lakers. With the new age of no hand-checking and fast-paced offenses, point guard play is at a premium.

The Lakers have long been linked to Rajon Rondo. This may be the perfect time to pursue him, because he is going to be a free agent this summer and a change of scenery may help rejuvenate him. The Celtics will not have any leverage because he could leave for LA as an unrestricted free agent, giving the Celtics nothing in return. A deal of Wayne Ellington and Steve Nash along with a swap of picks would work cap-wise to get Rondo.

But trying to convince Rondo to stay on a short deal could be difficult and his recent injury history could scare the Lakers away from a long-term deal. A safer bet for the Lakers would be to pursue Michael Carter-Williams or Tony Wroten from the Philadelphia 76ers. Both are young, on rookie contracts and the 76ers have been trying to unload Carter-Williams since last season. Carter-Williams is not a good shooter (40% from the field last season), but he is a 6’6” playmaker who rebounds well for a guard. Wroten may become unhappy with his situation in Philadelphia if Carter-Williams takes his minutes when he returns from his shoulder injury. The Lakers could try to move Nash’s contract to Philly because they have cap room to absorb it and grab one of these talented young guards. 

2. Get a high draft pick

Even though the season is less than ten games old, the Lakers are destined for the lottery. This will be a repeat trip to the lottery after grabbing Julius Randle with the seventh pick last year, but the stakes are higher for the Lakers in the 2015 draft. Thanks to the Steve Nash trade a few seasons ago, the Lakers must fall within the top five to keep their pick in 2015. Anything lower than five and they will have to give the pick to the Suns to finish compensation for the Nash deal.

Now let’s say the Lakers finish with the second-worst record in the NBA (the pace they are on right now). The percent chances of winning the number one, two and three picks with the second-worst record are: 19.9, 18.8 and 17.1, respectively. Only four teams with the second-worst record in the league have won the lottery since its inception in 1985 (the last was the Clippers in 2009 when they drafted Blake Griffin). So, historically the odds are not in the Lakers favor, even though the numbers indicate that they would have a good shot. But the team with the second-worst record can get no lower than the fifth pick, which would still be a victory for the Lakers. 

The Lakers could do two things with a high pick, draft or trade the pick. If they choose to draft, they could add a big man like Jahlil Okafor from Duke or Karl Towns from Kentucky. Despite the Miami Heat’s success without an established big man roaming the paint during LeBron’s tenure, NBA champions of the last 15 years either had a strong defensive center (Ben Wallace and Tyson Chandler) or Hall of Fame big (Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O’Neal and Tim Duncan). Okafor or Towns would require experience and, adding in the fact that Randle will essentially be a rookie next season when he returns from his injury, the Lakers would have two young bigs that would need a least a year or two before they become legitimate contributors. 

This leads to the better option, trading the high pick for a veteran. They could look at the Atlanta Hawks and try to take Al Horford for a year before he becomes a free agent in 2016. Or assuming Al Jefferson or Jeff Green pick up their player options, the Lakers could try and trade for one of them for frontcourt help.

A veteran who is still in the midst of his prime is worth a one-year rental in exchange for a draft pick for two reasons. First, it is LA and players could re-sign for long-term deals because the Lakers will have the money to offer large contracts. Second, a young player will not help the Lakers climb out from the bottom of the NBA for several years; just look at the Timberwolves or 76ers. Stars win in this league and the Lakers are lacking star power at the moment. 

Is Rajon Rondo the solution to LA's problems? (Eric Kilby/Flickr)
Is Rajon Rondo the solution to LA's problems? (Eric Kilby/Flickr)
SEE ALSO: The Lakers In Winter

3. Land a free agent or two (or three)

This has been the Lakers' bread and butter for decades. Aside from trading for great talent, the Lakers have had a track record of being successful in the free agent market. Even though they have struck out on the LeBrons and Carmelos of the NBA, the summer of 2015 provides great options for the Lakers to build a solid team.

They will have six players under contract and at least $20 million to spend on free agents like Paul Millsap, Rudy Gay, Rajon Rondo (if they don’t trade for him), Tyson Chandler, Greg Monroe, DeAndre Jordan, Marc Gasol, Omer Asik, Amar’e Stoudemire, Gerald Green and LaMarcus Aldridge. Those are some big time names. That doesn’t include players like Goran Dragic, Thaddeus Young and even Kevin Love who can opt out of their contracts after this season. With $20+ million, the Lakers could try to grab Millsap and Goran Dragic or spend big on a player like Marc Gasol and sign a lower-tier free agent like an Aaron Brooks or Louis Williams. 

Free agency will make or break the Lakers this offseason. Failure to bring in at least one big name or two or three more serviceable players will create another disastrous season. Once they have a team that can contend for a playoff spot in the West, they can seriously pursue the major prize of the 2016 free agent market: Kevin Durant. This free agency plan is a two-year strategy but it hinges on the success of 2015. Durant will not even consider LA if the Lakers are not at least competitive next season. 

My prediction

The Lakers will make a major trade this season because Nash’s expiring contract is too valuable a trade chip not to use. 

I believe they will explore the point guard trade possibilities. The Lakers will look into the Rajon Rondo situation and make a push at the February deadline. I also see the Lakers exploring the Michael Carter-Williams and Tony Wroten dilemma in Philadelphia. The most likely scenario is Carter-Williams goes to LA for Nash’s expiring contract.  

The Lakers will also get a pick in the top five and pick a freshman big, preferably Okafor if they are within the top three picks.

From there I believe the real shakeup for the Lakers will be in free agency. With only Kobe, Swaggy P, Julius Randle and Ryan Kelly signed for the 2015-2016 season (Jordan Clarkson, Jordan Hill and Robert Sacre have team options and Ed Davis has a player option), the Lakers will fill the roster with a mix of veterans and young players. I would like to see a group of players like Paul Millsap, Gerald Green, K.J. McDaniels and Tyson Chandler signed. This would give the Lakers a true center with defensive prowess (Chandler), a rebounding machine at power forward who can extend out to the three point line (Millsap was 36% last season), and two explosive young guards for the rotation (Green and McDaniels). 

This would give the Lakers a core group of Kobe, Swaggy, Green and McDaniels at the wings and Chandler, Millsap, Randle and Kelly in the frontcourt. 

Now say the Lakers get Michael Carter-Williams and draft Okafor, they add another big to the frontcourt and a point guard of the future on a rookie contract. This team is much more attractive than the current team and leaves the door open for a competitive bid for Kevin Durant once Kobe presumably retires after 2015.  

It will be a long year for the Lakers this season, but the foundation is being laid for a strong two year rebuild that centers around free agency. If there is any team in the league that can come out of the NBA cellar, it is the Lakers. Hang in there fans, it’s always darkest before the dawn.

Reach Staff Reporter Ken Mashinchi here


 

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