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NFC Championship Preview: 49ers Vs. Falcons

David Tobia |
January 17, 2013 | 4:10 p.m. PST

Staff Writer

Colin Kaepernick hopes to lead SF to the Big Dance in his first season as starter. (JSNKU/Creative Commons)
Colin Kaepernick hopes to lead SF to the Big Dance in his first season as starter. (JSNKU/Creative Commons)
It took the NFL three years and a renaming from “Wildcat” to “Read option” to realize quarterbacks run offenses better than Ronnie Brown. The wildcat successfully caught NFL defenses off guard for about a week and a half before they realized they could just blitz and stop the madness. But the athletic ability of Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson has given birth to a mutated form of the wildcat - the read option. 

The read option is to football what the triple threat position is to basketball. Basketball coaches stress that bending your knees and holding the ball next to your waist makes you an unpredictable, unguardable offensive machine since defenders have no idea if you will dribble, pass, or shoot. Technically you can do all three but shooting from the hip is less accurate in basketball than it is in Call of Duty, and there’s a reason it’s called a chest pass and not a hip pass. So you can dribble, I guess. Real triple threat. 

Basketball’s triple threat is a starting point, but the move after the triple threat - a jab step to create space for a shot, dribbling around a defender, or passing to an open man - creates the real problem for the defense. And the NFL triple threat, the read option, operates similarly. Sure, theoretically the quarterback can pass, hand off, or run it himself, but it really only works in conjunction with defensive mistakes. So while Colin Kaepernick’s 181 rushing yards showcased the upside of the read option, the Atlanta Falcons' defense will control its own fate in stopping San Francisco’s offense.

Reduce the Triple Threat to the Double Threat

Every team can throw or pass on any play, so the difference between normal NFL teams and teams running the read option is the threat of a quarterback run. Against Carolina and Cam Newton, Atlanta successfully stymied the normal run game (DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert combined for 76 yards on 23 carries), but allowed Cam Newton to rush for 116 yards on nine carries, including a 72-yard touchdown on a play virtually identical to Kaepernick’s 56 yard touchdown run last week. 

Defensive end Kroy Biermann (No. 71) chases DeAngelo Williams from the backside, while Newton runs straight through Biermann’s defensive lane. Atlanta has likely played this tape, as well as the tape of Kaepernick running through Erik Walden’s lane last week, in every defensive meeting this week, and will stress lane assignments when defending the read option. The emphasis on stopping Kaepernick’s running should slow Atlanta’s pass rush, as getting caught upfield allows big plays. Also expect a steady dose of four and five-yard gains from Frank Gore, as Atlanta’s defense will not be able to attack the traditional run game as aggressively.

In terms of the passing game, expect Kaepernick to continue to feature Michael Crabtree, who has averaged double-digit targets and seven receptions since Week 13. The Falcons' cornerbacks play sides rather than shadowing receivers, so Crabtree will face Dunta Robinson, Asante Samuel and Robert McClain at different points in the game. Samuel has had the best season of the three, so look for the 49ers to isolate Crabtree against the overrated Robinson. 

If Atlanta does sell out to stop the run, expect Jim Harbaugh to unleash Vernon Davis. Davis has been an integral part of San Francisco’s rushing success, but has been absent from the passing attack since Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith earlier this year. Atlanta struggles to cover tight ends, and Davis has the skills to exploit an unsuspecting secondary.

Balance for the Sake of Balance

Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rogers are both fairly terrible and should have a tough time finding success against the 49ers' speedy linebackers. But expect a steady diet of one- and two-yard runs off tackle, behind the right tackle Tyson Clabo. The Falcons have averaged more than five yards per carry when rushing behind Clabo, so Turner could break a double-digit run or two before getting caught from behind. The Falcons need to force Aldon Smith to defend the run in order to give Matt Ryan more time in passing situations. Despite an injured tricep, Justin Smith still commands double teams and allows Aldon Smith to unleash the NFC’s most complete array of pass rushing moves. 

Matt Ryan leads the most complete passing attack remaining in the playoffs. After battling the NFL’s best cornerback pair last week, Roddy White and Julio Jones should find success against the good-but-not-great trio of Tarell Brown, Chris Culliver, and Carlos Rogers (Brown played one of his best games of the year last week, but expect some regression this week).

Prediction: Falcons 33, 49ers 31

Reach Staff Writer David Tobia here or follow him on Twitter.



 

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