I'm sorry if you didn't get to see the column last week, as Hurricane Sandy interfered with the Neon Tommy servers. But, I still posted my picks of the week on Neon Tommy's Tumblr page, and had a perfect week. Don't believe me? Albeit it was just two picks, but I'm feeling a positive momentum swing going into Week 10. 

SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over Jets

The Seattle Seahawks are the NFL's Jekyll and Hyde team this season. The Seahawks are 4-0 at home, and have beaten teams such as the Patriots and Packers. However, on the road, they are 1-4, losing to teams such as the Cardinals, Rams and Lions. This week, the Seahawks are favored at home by less than a touchdown against a bad team, which is why they are a great bet this week.

In their past 14 games at CenturyLink Field, the Seahawks are 12-2 against the spread. Since 2007, when the Seahawks are home favorites, they are 16-5 against the spread. It's quite clear that they play much better at home than on the road. 

The matchup I love in this game is Marshawn Lynch versus the New York Jets run defense. Lynch is second in the NFL this season with 881 rushing yards, and his physical style of running plays heavily into his success. On the other side, there's been a lot of talk about how much the Jets miss Darrelle Revis. Yet, no one's discussing how bad the Jets run defense is. The Jets have allowed 141.4 rushing yards per game, which is the fourth worst in the NFL. Expect Lynch to have a field day. 

Additionally, the Seahawks have allowed over 20 points only twice this season. Against a struggling Jets offense that has yet to establish an identity, the Seahawks defense will rip them to pieces. Mark Sanchez has been awful this season, as he's last in the NFL with a 52.9 completion percentage. Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll will get into his former USC quarterback's head by blitzing him early and often, which will lead to several mistakes.

I think the Seahawks matchup against the Jets perfectly, and Vegas favoring them by less than a touchdown is highway robbery for the public. This is my lock of the week. 

Broncos (-3.5) over PANTHERS

Peyton Manning has been getting all the headlines this season, but another big reason for the Denver Broncos' success has been their defense. The Broncos have a top ten-defense in terms of yards allowed per game, and they are ninth in the NFL in sacks. The Broncos defense has played very well against Drew Brees and Andy Dalton the past two weeks, and they should do the same against Cam Newton.

At first glance, it seems like the 2-6 Panthers stink, but the Carolina Panthers have lost by less than a touchdowns in five of those games. However, the reason why I love the Broncos this week is that their run defense will make the difference. 

Even though Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams aren't elite, the Panthers still love to run the ball often. The Broncos stingy run defense has allowed just 3.7 yards per carry this season. Since 2003, the Panthers are 0-13 against the spread when they've faced a run defense after Week 3 that has allowed fewer than 3.75 yards per carry. This trend has been accurate this season, as the Seahawks only road victory was against the Panthers, thanks to their awesome run defense. 

Denver head coach John Fox would also love to get a win against his former team. The Panthers organization did not treat Fox well throughout his stint, and he was a lame duck coach during his final year. Now Fox has a better quarterback in Denver than he ever did at Carolina. Manning has been great this season, and while Carolina's defense has improved, its secondary is still weak. Peyton's arm strength may not be the same, but he still has the same precision. 

The Broncos have won and covered their last four games as a favorite, and you should expect them to extend that streak to five this weekend. 

Titans (+6) over DOLPHINS

The Miami Dolphins, unlike the Seahawks, play a lot better on the road than they do at home. Maybe they don't like playing in the extreme heat or for their relatively empty stadium, but the trends back this up. 

In their past 71 games, the road team in Dolphins games (so Dolphins on the road or visitor at Miami) has gone 49-22 against the spread. Additionally, the Dolphins are 0 for their last 14 against the spread when they were a home favorite in between two road games. 

I don't know if bettors should be comfortable betting for the Dolphins as favorites yet either. They've lost to the Jets, Cardinals, and Colts, and squeaked out close wins against the Rams and Bengals. Not exactly a good sign for a six-point favorite in any circumstance. The Dolphins themselves haven't been reliable favorites either. Since 2008 when favored by 3.5 points or more, the Dolphins are 0-10 against the spread. 

Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans are on the upswing. Their quarterback Jake Locker is expected to start this game after suffering a shoulder injury early in Week 4. Locker's ability to run is key against a very strong Dolphins secondary, who would've had a much easier time going against the veteran Matt Hasselbeck. 

The Titans got demolished by the Bears last week, and this should be a nice rebound game for them. The last four times the Titans have lost by 30 or more points, they are 4-0 against the spread in their next game. Also, while the Titans defense has been terrible, they are still facing against a rookie quarterback. Ryan Tannehill has exceeded expectations this season, but he's still inconsistent. Additionally, the ten times rookie quarterbacks were favored against the spread this year, they've covered in only two of those games. 

I'm not sure if the Titans will win this game outright, but this will definitely be a close game. The Dolphins won't be as sharp since they have a Thursday Night divisional game the following week. Take the points in this game. 

LAST WEEK'S PICKS 2-0|| SEASON'S PICKS 6-6-2

 

 

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