An already troubled relationship between the United States and Pakistan is likely to be further severed as more details emerge in the coming days over the role the Islamic republic played in harboring Osama bin Laden, USC experts warned on Monday.

(Creative Commons)

U.S. special forces killed the al-Qaeda leader after a raid into Abbottabad, Pakistan on Sunday night while President Barack Obama monitored the operation from the Situation Room.
 
“The action that the president took, with such great virtuosity, is likely to infuriate Pakistan, because it happened on their territory and probably without their knowledge,” said USC political science professor Richard Dekmejian.

For some time, Pakistan was a key ally in the war on terror after 9/11 — but that relationship has become more and more strained as U.S. officials suspected the country of aiding terrorists.

It came to a breaking point in early February when the U.S. government suspended diplomatic and high-level contacts with the country.
 
On Sunday night, bin Laden was found in an extravagant mansion in one of the more affluent neighborhoods of Abbottabad. The compound was protected by 12- to 18-foot walls toped with barbed wire, according to reports.

“It shocked many people that he was not only alive and well, but living in relative luxury — a far cry from caves in the Northwest Frontier Province,” said USC Middle East expert Josh Lockman.

Pakistan is suspected of knowing of bin Laden’s presence, if not playing a bigger role in his safety.

“This will provoke a change in U.S.-Pakistani relations, where we will be much more assertive in pressuring them that if they don’t take care of the problems in their country, and take care of this growing threat, the U.S. will have to take measures,” Lockman said.

Pakistan is a leading recipient of military aid from the United States, receiving more than $1 billion in 2010.

“It’s been a torturous relationship for many years,” Dekmejian said.
Pakistan disagrees with America’s intervention in Afghanistan, according to Dekmejian.

“They look upon Afghanistan as their backyard and they want to control it …” Dekmejian said. “They really don’t want a stable, pro-American government. If anything in Afghanistan, they want it to be a pro-Pakistani government. This is a major issue.”

Of great concern is the threat of retaliation, he said.

“They have the atomic bomb,” Dekmejian said. “If that government collapses, and eventually there are things like civil war and meltdown of authority in Pakistan, the question is, who gets a hold of those atomic bombs?”

bin Laden’s killing will make the Pakistani government and military, “look very weak in the eyes of the Pakistani public,” he added.

The threat of retaliation from al-Queda is also real, particularly outside of the U.S.

Celebrations, including those outside the White House, will not sit well with bin Laden sympathizers.
 
“I think the way that Obama has handled it has been brilliant,” said USC Annenberg professor Thomas Hollihan. “The story breaking today is that bin Laden was buried at sea in the Islamic tradition, and after prayers were said and translated into Arabic. Appropriately, in a place where his followers can’t go there to create a location to martyrdom.”
 
Dekmejian lauded the decision to delay the releasing of the photo of bin Laden’s body.

Bin Laden’s support had plummeted since 2003, according to the Pew Research Center.

Since that time, confidence in bin Laden among Muslims saw a 43 percent drop in Jordan, 38 percent drop in Palestinian territories, 33 percent drop in Indonesia, 18 percent drop in Lebanon and 12 percent drop in Turkey, according to a Pew poll.

“After the attacks, he had become quite popular — charismatically popular throughout certain segments of the Muslim world, especially the more jihadist segment,” Dekmejian said. “He was quite powerful as a symbol of Islamic resistance. His message did resonate, especially among young people. That has changed.”

Franchises in Yemen, Northern Africa, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Pakistan, parts of Europe, and even Russia, operated “independent of him,” Dekmejian said.
 
“They share the ideology, however, they don’t bother being in touch with him or the group because it’s too risky, too difficult, and they really don’t need it,” he said.

Experts also expect the news to be a significant boost to Obama’s campaign, but warned that a counter-attack by Islamic extremists could quickly erase that momentum.

“This could not have played out any better,” Hollihan said.

Reach Dan here.
Join Neon Tommy's mailing list.