Nancy Pelosi has a tough road ahead of her if she wishes to remain Speaker of the House. It is far from a sure thing - but I firmly believe it is possible, and even probable. However, if we are talking probability - at the end of the day it is all a numbers game. First stop, take a look at The Cook Political Report; they tend to be the best in the business for predicting toss-up race.

One thing to note is that Pelosi's seat, unlike Senate Majority Leader Reid, is not even closely contested, so if the Democrats maintain control of the House, Pelosi will continue on as Speaker. According to the current numbers, Democrats have a 77-seat advantage with two vacancies. With Republicans currently at 178 seats, they need to pick up 40 to gain control of the House.

Assuming, based on the mood of the electorate, that all of Cooks' “Toss Up” through “Lean Republican” go Republican, that pushes the Republicans up 10 seats - leaving 30 left. Now, on the surface that is a scary thought, especially with another 43 seats currently held by Democrats classified by Cook as a "Democratic Toss Up," many of which polls show the Republican candidate up 5-plus points. Additionally 31 currently Democratic seats are only classified as a "Lean Democrat."

However, there is still very good reason for Pelosi's continued confidence.  Many of those Democratic toss up seats that are considered "up for grabs" are also considered "up for grabs" every year based on polling and demographic leanings of the districts; however, election after election those lawmakers manage to stay in office. Why? Because they know their district and they know how to campaign.

For example, Dina Titus (D-NV) is on the "toss-up" list, but if you look at her record, she has deep roots in the state as the State Senate Minority Leader from 1993 to 2009. Furthermore, she is an excellent campaigner. As a former professor of political science at UNLV, she knows how to run a campaign; in her prior election, she beat her opponent 47% to 42% to become the first Democrat to represent the district. This is not an anomaly - one reason she ran in this previously solid Republican district is because she won it in her unsuccessful 2006 run for governor. With the national party's popularity down, it may be harder for her to win than in 2008, but as seen in 2006 it is still entirely possible - and her campaign is already cranking at full speed ahead. The College Democrats at the University of Southern California (full disclosure: I am VP of this organization, if that explains the unabashed partisanship in most of my writing) already have a trip to Las Vegas coming up late in October to canvass for her and keep her in office. With out-of-state students knocking on doors and phone banking, and with out-of-state dollars pouring in, her operation will not be an easy one to beat.

It is stories like that - and many of the other candidates in the toss-up category share similar ones, such as Jerry McNerney, Chris Carney, Gabrielle Giffords, Baron Hill, Heath Shuler, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and Travis Childers - that give Pelosi the hope (along with her chutzpah) to feel confident in retaining her seat. And love her or hate her, one thing all parties should agree on: Nancy Pelosi is damn effective at getting things done.

Micah Schiendlin, Political Director of the USC College Democrats, contributed to this report.

Reach Reporter Aaron Perman here.

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