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MLB Preview: AL East

Alex Herbach |
April 8, 2009 | 1:36 p.m. PDT

Contributor

Yanks slugger Alex Rodriguez had his hands full in the offseason.
(Creative Commons licensed)

Boston Red Sox (95-67, second in division, Wild Card winners): Much has been made about the Yankees wastrel ways this off-season. By comparison, the Red Sox were thrifty - and may have come away with the better team. If they stay healthy, Boston will spend no more than $30.5 million on pitchers John Smoltz and former Dodgers Brad Penny and Takashi Saito, all of whom are low-risk, high-reward additions. The nucleus of a team that has won two World Series in five years is still intact, and at this point in the season, the only thing standing in the way of a third ring are the Yankees.
Season Outlook: Smoltz will come off shoulder surgery in May and will likely join a nasty starting rotation of Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. Penny could be a fifth starter or join Saito in the Sox bullpen, by far the best in MLB. Jonathan Papelbon, one of the most dominant arms in the game, will reign over the ninth inning; Hideki Okajima, Saito and Justin Masterson will set him up. And then there's the lineup, not as terrifying as in years past, but still plenty formidable. Jacoby Ellsbury stole 50 bases last season and will lead off, last year's reigning MVP Dustin Pedroia will follow and All-Stars Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz and Jason Bay will provide the power. This is as balanced a team as any in MLB. The only chink in the armor will be injury concerns. But with this much talent and balance, Beckett, Ortiz and Pedroia will have to land on the D.L. at the same time to do any damage to this team's chances. Expect them to play deep into October.
Keep an Eye On...SP Junichi Tazawa. The 22-year-old fireballer took a unique path to America, skirting the NPB by asking Japanese teams not to draft him, and then signing with the Red Sox in December. He is another low-risk, high-reward player. His fastball has been clocked at 97 mph but he hasn't pitched a single professional inning - not in Japan and not in the crazed pressure cooker known as Boston.
Key Additions: SP Smoltz, SP Penny, RP Saito, OF Rocco Baldelli

New York Yankees (89-73, third in division): The Yankees paid $423.5 million to land this off-season's three biggest free agents, Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett. According to the International Monetary Fund, that's nearly double the Gross Domestic Product of Tonga. And they say there's a recession on. But that's the Yankee way: buy every great player in the game and hope they stay healthy. The fact is, the Yankees have one of the most formidable teams, on paper, in the history of the game. But championships are not won on paper - green or otherwise - and the Yankees have some question marks - questions that will have to be answered quickly if the Yankees want to win a 27th World Championship.
Season Outlook: Last year, the Yankee Way didn't lead to the playoffs, the first time that's happened since 1993. With this team, the most expensive in franchise history, anything short of a World Series victory will be a failure. To do that, their new bonus babies, Burnett and Sabathia, both must stay healthy for most of the season (my gut says at least one will not); they must survive two months without injured MVP Alex Rodriguez; and they must prove that Joba Chamberlain is more valuable in the rotation than he is in a questionable Yankees bullpen - though they still have Mariano Rivera, who may go down as the greatest closer in history. New York has so much talent on the payroll that they could all wear eye patches and manage to win any other division by double figures. But with an impressive Red Sox team and the AL champion Rays nipping at their heels, expect the AL East to be a war, down to the last bloody week of September.
Keep an Eye On...Inf. Cody Ransom. The journeyman will be thrust into one of the most unenviable positions in sports: replacing A-Rod in the Yankees lineup. It will only be for two months, but for the first week of the season, all eyes will be on Ransom. The early news is good: In his first 35 spring at-bats, Ransom was hitting an even .400.
Key Additions: SP Sabathia, 1B Teixeira, SP Burnett, OF Nick Swisher

Tampa Bay Rays (97-65, first in division): The Rays were the feel-good story of 2008: A team that hadn't won more than 67 games in a season rides a wave of talented 20-somethings past the mighty Red Sox and Yankees and into the World Series. Though they lost to the Philadelphia Phillies, they proved the impossible by showing that baseball can succeed in Tampa Bay.
Season Outlook: The team that won the best division in baseball got better this off-season. The addition of OF Pat Burrell from the Phillies gives this young lineup some maturity and some pop to go along with burgeoning superstars Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria. The rotation's big three (James Shields, Scott Kazmir* and Matt Garza) can compete with the Red Sox and Yankees' and might even win more games if they all stay healthy. They'll certainly strike more guys out. The only weak spot for the Rays is the bullpen, which was their best feature last year. Losing Trever Miller hurt, and puts even more pressure on vets Troy Percival and the newly-acquired Jason Isringhausen to stay off the D.L. and close out games. After watching last year's miraculous run, it's hard to doubt these kids. But the Yankees and Red Sox got so much better this summer it will be tough beating either of them. Then again, I said that last year.
Keep an Eye On...P David Price. Everyone that has even a passing interest in baseball has heard the name David Price by now. His backwards K of the Red Sox's J.D. Drew in Game 7 of last year's ALCS is arguably the greatest strikeout in Rays history. But the Rays won't push their young phenom and he will start the season in the minors. With the question marks in the bullpen and the rotation, they might have no choice but to recall him quickly. When they do, feel free to hop back on the Tampa bandwagon.
Key Additions: 2B Adam Kennedy, OF Burrell, RP Isringhausen

Baltimore Orioles (68-94, last in division): The long-term plan in Birdland these days seems to hinge on a player that doesn't have a single big league at-bat. Matt Wieters, the 22-year-old catcher and Minor League Player of the Year, could be one of the best backstops in the AL by the end of the season. But he's got to get there first. If he gets called up before the All-Star break, expect Evan Longoria-type production from the rookie.
Season Outlook: Wieters is definitely the future in Baltimore. But he just might be the present as well. When the biggest addition to a 94-loss team is Cesar Izturis, you've got to generate excitement somewhere, and the buzz around Wieters might be it. The O's have another outstanding young player in RF Nick Markakis. In two-plus years, the future All-Star has improved in every facet of his game. Last year, his 20 home runs and 87 RBI were down from 2007, but his walk numbers and batting average improved mightily to give him a .306/.406/.491 split on the season. Markakis and Wieters - whenever he finally arrives - will help Baltimore forget about their complete lack of a starting rotation or a bullpen. Other than that, it'll be a long countdown to Ravens training camp in Baltimore this summer.
Keep an Eye On...P Koji Uehara. One of three Japanese pitchers to cross the Pacific this season, Uehara will arrive with the most impressive pedigree. In 10 seasons with the Yomiuri (Tokyo) Giants in the NPB, Uehara won 112 games and saved 33, with a career 3.01 ERA. He won two Sawamura Awards - the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young - and two strikeout titles. His reward? A $10 million contract and a chance to face the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays. Good luck.
Key Additions: OF Felix Pie, SP Rich Hill, C Gregg Zaun

Toronto Blue Jays (86-76, fourth in division): The Blue Jays have got to feel like they're in a Ben Stiller movie - bad luck just has a way of finding them. And it's not funny. First they lose A.J. Burnett to their division rivals, the Yankees, which is like Brad Pitt stealing your girlfriend and then having to run into them once a month while they're on their way to a restaurant that you can't afford. Then the Blue Jays lose top pitcher Shaun Marcum for the year to Tommy John surgery, and will have to go half a season without the injured Dustin McGowan. That's three key starting pitchers, for a team with an average offense, gone like a fart in the wind. Roy Halladay is good, but even he can't put an entire team on his back.
Season Outlook: With only one front-line pitcher in the rotation, an oft-injured one at that, the lineup is going to have to average more than five runs a game to stay afloat in this division. And outside of outfielders Vernon Wells and Alex Rios the offense will be underwhelming. The Jays are relying on too many reclamation projects (3B Scott Rolen, SP Matt Clement) to be able to hang with the beasts of the East. The saving grace will be the bullpen, which was quietly one of the league's best last year, and should be again in 2009.
Keep an Eye On...OF Travis Snider. Snider, one of the minors' best young power hitters, will get his first shot at the big leagues after debuting late last season. He projects to hit 20-25 home runs in a full season and he should see plenty of playing time.
Key Additions: 1B Kevin Millar, SP Clement



 

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