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Super Bowl XLIX: Seahawks Defense Vs. Patriots Offense

Andrew McKagan |
January 27, 2015 | 12:15 p.m. PST

Staff Reporter

Strength vs. strength. That's what this Super Bowl will come down to in my mind. Both teams doing what they do best.

And that's why the most intriguing matchup in Super Bowl 49 is the Seahawks' defense, which ranked first in DVOA, pitted against the Patriot offense, ranked fourth on the year. 

The 2014-15 Patriot offense is known for its versatility--they can win and have won in so many different ways, whether it's completely abandoning the running game against the Ravens or pounding Jonas Gray and LeGarrette Blount down the Colts throats.

Brandon LaFell has emerged this year as a yards-after-catch specialist, and Julian Edelman continues to be one of the most undervalued, versatile and overall talented receivers in the league.

Of course, Rob Gronkowski is a huge part of what New England does. Not only does he have to be double-teamed on every passing play, but the run blocking he provides really puts defensive coordinators in a bind--it begs the fundamental question: do I substitute a defensive back and risk being run on, or leave a linebacker in the game and risk being run by

Add to that an offensive line that has really stepped up in run blocking as of late, and that makes the Pats' offense pretty damn tough to figure out. 

But most of us know New England's personnel and the matchup issues it presents. What we don't know is: how will they use that personnel to attack Seattle's defense, which is in the midst of a historic two-year run? 

The Seahawks play largely a cover-3 (or cover-1 robber) with Earl Thomas manning the deep middle, and Richard Sherman and Byron Maxwell playing the deep outside thirds. Those guys are essentially responsible for limiting the deep ball and not letting anyone behind them. 

In front of those guys, you'll often see Bobby Wagner, KJ Wright, Bruce Irvin, and Kam Chancellor playing "hook" zones right over the middle of the field. They're responsible for coming up to the line of scrimmage in the case of a run play or getting depth to cover the middle of the field in the event of a pass. 

The latter group will be vital in their matchup with the Patriots since New England likes to do so many things over the short middle of the field. 

The Patriots like to run little crossers, a lot of the time with a "rub" concept to help get the intended receiver open. Like this:

This works beautifully against Buffalo's man coverage, and the pick at the top of the screen gets Brandon LaFell wide open with room to run. 

However, the Seahawks don't play a lot of man coverage underneath. Short drag routes and pick plays that the Patriots like to run will likely more often be against zone coverage rather than man coverage, and the Seahawks' defense is as good as there is at shutting these plays down. 

I mentioned before than Seattle likes to play one of their safeties as a "robber." This means that either Kam Chancellor or Earl Thomas (usually Chancellor) steps up in zone coverage from his deep safety position to theoretically jump (or "rob") crossing routes, or make a big hit. Here it is in illustrated form:

And the result:

Seattle is so good at closing in on short routes. Their linebackers (and Kam Chancellor, who is basically a linebacker) are some of the best tacklers in the league, and are excellent at limiting yards after catch. Here they go again:

In short, the Patriots probably won't have much success running the dink-and-dunk stuff they like to do over the middle. However, if they get a little creative, they might be able to pick their spots. Earlier this season, the Broncos made a slight modification to one of their short-crossing plays to take advantage of Seattle's zone defense:

Instead of a man-pick concept, the Broncos switched to pick off the defenders in zone coverage. Their receivers (besides Wes Welker) didn't even look back for the ball, and are illustrated blocking downfield before the catch is even made by Welker. I wouldn't be surprised to see New England run something like this.

The Patriots might have to, because they likely won't get much throwing down the field. Seattle's corners are notoriously large human beings, and match up well in downfield situations with New England's outside receivers.

To illustrate the range of Richard Sherman, here is a play from the NFC Championship that he actually managed to intercept a pass on:

It was a well-thrown ball, but Sherman's long arms took away the throwing lane, even when Davante Adams had Sherman beaten by half a step.

And here's Maxwell (top of the screen):

He masterfully squeezes Jordy Nelson into the sideline, subtly getting physical and taking away any room for a completion.

I can't imagine LaFell and/or Edelman will have much downfield success on Sunday.

However, one area I think New England can take advantage of is Jeremy Lane, who plays slot cornerback for Seattle.

Lane (20) is a very good athlete, and very fast. However, he is also very small and not very strong by NFL standards. Watch him get out-muscled here on the goal line on what should have been a touchdown:

Later, he misses a tackle and gets beaten badly for a first down:

Isolating Lane on Edelman is something I can see the Patriots trying to do a lot of. 

As far as the Seahawks are concerned, I would strongly consider moving Byron Maxwell into the slot in sub packages and bringing in Tharold Simon to play the outside opposite Sherman. Seattle tried this in their matchup with Philadelphia this year, and it was very effective. Maxwell provides more strength, tackling and reliability, even though he may not be as fast as Lane is. Still, because the Patriots are so good at exploiting mismatches, reliability should be an asset for the Seahawks on Sunday.

Before we get to the fun stuff in the trenches, here's one more thing I can see the Patriots doing through the air against Seattle:

The Bills are actually in cover-3 here, which is the exact same defense Seattle likes to play. Ideally, the outside linebackers playing "hook" zones (situated at the 41 and 36 yard lines above) should be getting wider toward the sidelines to give the outside cornerbacks support underneath. However, New England runs interference with their tight ends, which holds the linebackers infield, and opens up passing lanes for the curl routes on the outside. 

Since the outside cornerbacks' job in a cover-3 is to play the deep third of the field, they pretty much have to give up those short curl routes all day. And with no linebacker there to take away the passing lane, that play will be there for the Patriots pretty much all they want, especially with Rob Gronkowski likely drawing so much attention. 

Expect the Patriots to run a lot of zone coverage beaters like that, and like this "levels" concept:

The receiver at the 26-yard line pulls Earl Thomas up from his zone, leaving the receiver running across the field at the 19-yard line wide open. Aaron Rodgers missed the open man here, but this is a play that obviously should have been made.

Okay, now for the cool stuff!

The Patriots do a lot of interesting things in their running game. They're mostly a power running team (as opposed to a zone running team like the Seahawks are), and they're known to throw in some cool wrinkles to out-leverage opponents. I expect to see nothing less come Sunday.

What I mean by that is this:

They run a designed cutback running play here, but see the tight end #47? He lines up at fullback and out-leverages the linebacker (53) because of the angle he comes in at. Since 47 starts from the outside, he doesn't have to be bigger or stronger than 53, since he already has the leverage advantage. He gets 53 out of his assigned gap, giving the runner room to get to the second level.

And again, even though the right tackle blows his block on Mario Williams, you can still see the tight end coming around (from the right side of the screen to the left) to block linebacker #52. 

He again has the leverage advantage, and all he needs to do is essentially make contact with the defender in order to spring the running play.

Even in the NFC Championship, we saw this simple law of physics prove quite effective against Seattle, and Kam Chancellor (31) in particular:

These are wide receivers who are blocking Chancellor here, and Chancellor has at least a good 30 pounds on them. But instead of trying to block Chancellor straight-up, they come in from the outside, pinning Chancellor inside. This is a smart tactic against Chancellor in particular since he's too athletic to stay blocked by offensive linemen, and too strong to be blocked straight-up by just about anyone else. 

Back on the Patriots, Gronkowski is an exceptional blocker, and the Patriots are lethal at times running the ball because they're so good at getting defenders out of their gaps.

These angles created in the Patriots running game are very effective and could spell trouble for Seattle, especially considering that this power-style running attack is something the Seahawks have had some trouble with (particularly agains the 49ers) in the recent past, since it uses their aggression agains them.

Check it out:

You can see Bobby Wagner (54) coming up to shoot the gap on the running play, but tight end Vance McDonald (the right-most player in the first image) comes in and cracks Wagner from the side at the last second, springing the play. 

And here, Tony McDaniel (99) gets "trapped."

You can see the 49ers guard (75) immediately lets McDaniels through the line of scrimmage on the right side of your screen, only to be taken out by the pulling Mike Iupati (77). This enables 75 to get up to the second level quicker to take out the linebackers, opening up some nice running lanes. 

These "trap" plays take advantage of aggressive defenses playing single-gap schemes, which is exactly what Seattle is. The only way to beat trap plays is to be smart and aware, and it really forces a defense to play less aggressively or else they risk losing their assigned gap. 

I definitely expect the Patriots to run a fair amount of these "trap" plays, and trying to out-leverage Seattle with creative angles (and Gronkowski) will be exciting to watch. 

I don't like doing predictions. All I can say is that this game will be so interesting to watch from a coaching perspective as adjustments are made throughout the game. These are two of the best football minds in the world, and watching them perform on the biggest stage in sports will undoubtedly be spectacular.

Reach Staff Reporter Andrew McKagan via e-mail here and on Twitter here.



 

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