Current Republican incumbent Joe Heck (left) is being contested by the Democratic underdog Erin Bilbray (right). (Rep Joe Heck/Facebook and Erin Bilbray for Congress/Facebook)

With Democrat and Republican registration equally split and roughly 19 percent of its voters registered as nonpartisan, Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District has all the necessary ingredients for a competitive race in November. 

But campaign blunders from the Democratic candidate Erin Bilbray as well as a lack of internal support have cast doubt on the party’s ability to topple the Republican incumbent, Joe Heck. 

 “Bilbray is currently on her third campaign manager, which does not bode well,” said Michael Bowers, a professor of political science and public law at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. “She has had some difficulty raising money and the national party has not decided to invest in the race.”   

Democratic leadership in Congress has also been skeptical of a successful outcome for Bilbray’s campaign. Harry Reid, the party’s senior U.S. senator from Nevada and current Senate Majority Leader, told the Las Vegas Sun on Aug. 21 that Bilbray should win the seat, but has referred to her campaign disparagingly, saying “her campaign has been hit and miss” and that “it hasn’t been a great campaign.”

Nestled just south of Las Vegas, the 3rd district comprises the majority of Clark County, which is the state’s largest with a population that is nearly three quarters of Nevada’s total.  

The Silver State has been among the slowest in the country to rebound from the Great Recession, and a focus on revitalizing the economy and increasing job growth in Southern Nevada has been a central campaign point for both candidates. 

But Bilbray is largely facing an uphill battle in a district that has voted against Congressional Democratic leadership in the last two election cycles. 

 “[Democrats] haven’t done well in recruitment or in their ground game in the district,” said David Damore, an associate political science professor at UNLV specializing in campaign and elections. “[They] have struggled in this district to get candidates with experience or ones who can run and make sharp differences with the Republicans.”

Where they have succeeded, however, is on a larger scale, with President Obama winning Clark County and Nevada in 2012. Bowers noted Heck’s ability to win the seat two years ago during a Democratic-state hold could predict a victory in November. 

“He managed to win re-election during a presidential year when the state and country voted for Obama,” he said. “So he should be able to win in a low turnout midterm election such as this one is likely to be.”

Additionally, local interest in the campaign has not been indicative of a competitive election. Bowers mentioned that its lack of draw could point to a GOP win. 

“Those who are politically astute know that the Republicans are not going to lose the House so it might not make much difference how this seat goes,” he said. “And … those who are low information voters typically don't vote regularly.”

Nancy Glass-Stone, a 20-year resident of the 3rd District who is heavily involved in volunteering in the community, falls into the latter category, and notes there hasn’t been enough buzz to get her to the polls. 

“I don’t see a lot of signs everywhere like I usually do during an election,” she said. “I haven’t really heard anyone talking about it.”

Glass-Stone noted the difference in the area between now and the presidential election in 2012 is like “black and white” — a common sentiment that can often drive down midterm participation.  Damore predicts this lack of participation will more than likely lead to an incumbent victory. 

“There’s just not the engagement we’ve seen in the last couple of cycles here,” he said. “I expect there’ll be very status quo outcomes.”

Underdog Bilbray, however, may still have the chance to dig herself out from the pile of campaign mishaps.  Both Bowers and Damore cite that with the county’s split party registration, as well as the recent release of ad campaigns, it could give the first time candidate a standing chance.  

“We’ll see what happens — with the [advertising] buys going up there’ll still be a little bit of tension,” Damore said. “Maybe [Bilbray will] get a good poll or two and it’ll generate some more interest.”

Contact Staff Reporter Matt Lemas here and follow him on Twitter here.