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USC-Fresno State Week 1 Betting Preview

Max Meyer |
August 28, 2014 | 2:51 p.m. PDT

Senior Sports Editor

USC quarterback Cody Kessler (Neon Tommy)
USC quarterback Cody Kessler (Neon Tommy)
Fresno State Bulldogs at #15 USC Trojans

Saturday, August 30 at 4:30 p.m. PST on Fox Sports 1

Latest Odds: USC -21.5 and Over/Under 58

After a drama-filled week, USC will finally have a chance to make their mark on the field and silence the off-the-field noise. When the Trojans met Fresno State in last season's Vegas Bowl, they were only 4.5-point favorites. After their resounding 45-20 victory over the Bulldogs, the oddsmakers have adjusted to make USC a 21.5-point favorite in this rematch. 

Despite cornerback Josh Shaw's suspension, this USC defense is considered one of the best in the country. They only gave up 20 points to a high-scoring Fresno State offense led by stars Derek Carr and Davante Adams last year. Both of those players are now in the NFL, yet the Bulldogs will still employ their uptempo offense. The quarterback running the show is still in question.

Brian Burrell and Brandon Connette are the two guys competing for the job. Per The Fresno Bee's Robert Kuwada, Burrell's throwing accuracy is inconsistent, but as a backup, he knows Fresno's offense very well. Connette, a graduate transfer from Duke, doesn't have that same familiarity, but he has a better arm and is apt at running the football too. 

Coach Steve Sarkisian's new uptempo offense has gotten national buzz, and the USC defense has become accustomed to defending it during fall practice. Fresno State will have a tough time dealing with USC's defensive line, led by star Leonard Williams. USC's new hybrid defense offers several different looks to confuse opposing offenses, and consistently generates pressure. 

Fresno State's passing game has to replace a multitude of production, as two of their three 1,000-yard receivers, Adams and Isaiah Burse, are gone. Senior wide receiver Josh Harper is now the major threat in the Bulldogs' passing attack. Since USC's secondary doesn't have a lot of in-game experience under their belt, Harper will definitely be a guy to watch in this game. 

On the offensive side of the ball, USC quarterback Cody Kessler has looked a lot better running Sark's fast-paced offense. The wide receiving corps is very deep, but make no mistake, their running game is the focal point of the offense. With Tre Madden unlikely to play, the two running backs expected to have a major part in this game are Buck Allen and Justin Davis. Both are threats to bust a big play in passing and rushing situations. USC will most likely be starting three freshmen, two on the offensive line and one as the slot wide receiver. 

MORE: Behind Enemy Lines: Fresno State Looks To Spoil Sarkisian's Debut 

Fresno State's defense has a couple great pieces, but it's similar to the one that was the second-worst in the country in giving up 20-yard (59) and 30-yard passing plays (34). The ironic part is, the Bulldogs have one of the best safeties in the country in Derron Smith. The cornerback group is still in shambles though, and will have trouble dealing with Nelson Agholor, George Farmer and company. 

With USC having two freshmen offensive linemen in guards Damien Mama and Toa Lobendahn, Fresno's defensive line will be instrumental if they want to have any chance of slowing down the Trojans' offense. Tyeler Davison can play multiple positions across the line in the Bulldogs' 3-4 defense. USC overpowered this unit in the Vegas Bowl, so Fresno State will need to cause chaos in the trenches this time around.

Interestingly enough, I see a lot of parallels between this game and USC's opener against Hawaii last season. The Trojans were 22.5-point favorites facing a heavy-passing offense then, and it was the defense that led the way to a 30-13 win. The secondary intercepted Hawaii quarterback Taylor Graham, who started his first college football game after transferring from Ohio State. USC's offense has tended to start the season slowly in recent years, and there will be growing pains adjusting to Sark's offense. 

Fresno State will struggle to score points in this game, just as they did last season despite having Carr as their quarterback. USC's defense has been dominant at home, as the UNDER is 10-2 in USC's past 12 games as home favorites. It's easy to get distracted by the fact that both teams run uptempo offenses and that they combined to score 65 points in last year's meeting, but this should be a rather low scoring game, at least compared to Vegas's point total.

The Trojans' depth has taken a massive hit from sanctions and injuries, so there's a very realistic possibility that Sarkisian pulls his starters earlier than normal if USC gets out to a comfortable lead, especially with the Stanford game looming the following week. When you're betting on a three-touchdown favorite, this scenario is an absolute nightmare. Fresno State has lost 16-straight games to ranked opponents, and it's hard to see that trend changing for this game. But in a low-scoring game with the threat of USC's starters not playing the entire second half, it's hard not to take Fresno and the points.

Final Score Prediction: USC 31, Fresno State 13

My Best Bet: UNDER 58 Points

Reach Senior Sports Editor Max Meyer by email.

Follow @TheMaxMeyer



 

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