Super Bowl 2014: The Winning Prop Bets
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Seattle's offense has been stagnant for long periods of time in games this season, even with Marshawn Lynch. (Creative Commons)
Bovada: Total Receiving Yards- Julius Thomas, UNDER 55.5 (-115)
Julius Thomas has been outstanding this year, and he is one of Peyton Manning's favorite target. Yet, there might be a little too much love for Julius by Vegas, as this line is quite high. Thomas averaged 56 receiving yards per game in the regular season, so it's easy to see the reasoning behind the line. But, in 10 of those 14 games, he failed to reach the 50-yard receiving plateau.
Additionally, the Seahawks are incredibly good at defending the tight end. In the 18 games they've played, only three tight ends would have won this prop bet by accumulated 56 receiving yards or more. In fact, Seattle's secondary has played even better against elite tight ends.
The Seahawks faced tight ends with a higher season yardage total than Thomas seven times thus far. Only one of them had more than 50 receiving yards, and that was Greg Olsen with 56 in Week 1. The Seahawks faced Vernon Davis three times, and held him to a combined 57 yards. Jimmy Graham mustered 50 yards in two contests against the Seahawks, compared to the 77 yards he averaged per game in his other 16. Tony Gonzalez was also neutralized, as he only gained 29 yards against that vaunted secondary.
Thomas is a good tight end, and the Seahawks will devise a scheme to stop him like they did against Graham and Davis in their earlier playoff games. In fact, those two combined for a measly 24 yards in those playoff games. Peyton Manning has other weapons to work with in the passing game in Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Knowshon Moreno. Speaking of which…
LVH: Total Receptions- Knowshon Moreno, OVER 2.5 (-140)
Knowshon Moreno averaged almost four receptions per game in the regular season, and had at least three catches in 11 of those games. The reason why this line is so low is because of the rib injury that he suffered in the fourth quarter in the AFC Championship Game against the Patriots. Additionally, he's also had only three catches combined in Denver's two playoff games.
Yet, this seems like the sort of game in which Moreno will thrive in the passing attack. Seattle's secondary does not give up big plays and their pass rush will force Manning to throw the ball quickly. Many of Manning's checkdown passes will go to the running backs, especially with Seattle's aforementioned ability to shut down tight ends.
Opposing offenses have realized that throwing to the running back can be an effective way to gain yardage against that historic pass defense. In the past nine games, a running back had at least three receptions eight times against the Seahawks.
Coach John Fox said this past weekend that Moreno will be a "huge part of the game." After all, Moreno is going back home to New Jersey, and will desperately want to have a huge game in front of his family. He'll see plenty of playing time, and should be a popular target for Manning on Sunday. Additionally, I'm also a fan of this bet too: Total Receptions- Montee Ball, OVER 1.5 (-110), but I won't make it part of my official five.
LVH: Will there be a scoreless quarter? YES (+235)
This is easily my riskiest bet on the board. This prop has cashed only three times out of the past 10 Super Bowls. The Broncos had the highest scoring offense (37.9 points per game) in NFL regular season history. In fact, the Broncos have scored in every single quarter thus far in the postseason. Call me crazy, but I still like this line.
Granted, Denver hasn't faced a defense quite like Seattle's. Their defense has already racked up four scoreless quarters this postseason against the Saints and 49ers. In their 18 games this season, the defense has accumulated 34 scoreless quarters, almost an average of two per game. The Seahawks were also shut out in 16 quarters on offense, including two in the playoffs. Eight of their 18 games featured a scoreless quarter, including when both the Seahawks and Saints did not score in the third in the NFC Divisional Round.
Denver's defense should not be overlooked either though. While they struggled in the beginning of the season, they've really come on late, even without Von Miller. In nine of their past 13 quarters, the Broncos have held their opponents scoreless. That includes the Patriots not scoring on their defense for two quarters and the Chargers totaling three scoreless quarters this postseason. In fact, they only surrendered a combined 33 points in their two playoff games, so it wouldn't be a surprise for them to stop Seattle's frequently stagnant offense for a long period of time.
The Broncos' offense also is not invincible, they had 11 scoreless quarters of their own in the regular season. In the last Super Bowl that Manning played in, the Saints held his vaunted offense scoreless for two quarters. With the way that both defenses have been playing of late and the projected weather for this game, this bet has a lot of value.
Will 8 OR MORE Broncos catch a pass? NO (+135)
This line from RJ Bell is my second-riskiest bet according to Vegas, yet I don't think this line makes any sense. The odds on NO implicate that Vegas think that there is a 59 percent chance that at least eight Broncos will catch a pass on Sunday. According to my research, it simply isn't that common.
In Manning's 18 games this season, eight receivers have caught passes from him only seven instances. Digging deeper, in Manning's 11 games in which he has completed fewer than 30 passes in a game, he's only spread the wealth to eight different players twice.
Considering the line for Peyton Manning's completions in the Super Bowl is set at 26.5, Vegas doesn't believe that he will be amassing that magic number of 30. Simply put, if Manning doesn't complete a lot of passes, there's a much better chance that he'll only be completing those throws to a smaller number of receivers.
Additionally, in their 18 games, Seattle's defense has only let eight different players catch a ball six times. They've also only allowed a quarterback to complete at least 30 passes on them twice. Denver does have a multitude of weapons, but I just don't see eight different Broncos catching passes against Seattle's elite pass defense, especially with a decent chance that Manning has a subpar game regarding number of completions.
Oddshark: What will be higher? Total Rebounds in the game for Victor Oladipo vs. Boston (-130) OVER Golden Tate Receptions
Let's end with a fun cross sport prop bet. Tate had 64 receptions on the season, which is good for four catches per game. However, he's only caught five passes in two postseason games and a reportedly healthy Percy Harvin will steal many of his looks in the Super Bowl. That could be concerning for Tate backers, as he caught more than five passes only three times this year without Harvin playing for most of it.
Oladipo is averaging 4.5 rebounds per game, but in the month of January that number has risen to 5.1. Boston is 23rd in the NBA in FG percentage, which means that there will be many rebound opportunities. He's also consistently been getting more minutes, as he's played at least 30 minutes in 13 of the 16 January games. A lot of court time against a below-average shooting team for an aggressive player sounds like a very solid rebounding game for Oladipo.
Other Fun Prop Bets (that I won't recommend betting on)
1. Will the announcers say "marijuana" during the game? (YES +350, NO -600)
2. Will Michael Crabtree mention Richard Sherman in a tweet during the game? (YES +300, NO -500)
3. At kickoff, will the temperature be over 32 degrees? (YES -150, NO +110)
4. What song will Bruno Mars sing first?
Locked Out of Heaven (-125)
Treasure (3/1)
Grenade (11/2)
Just the Way You Are (9/1)
Gorilla (10/1)
Marry You (12/1)
The Lazy Song (12/1)
5. Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the National Anthem? (YES +250, NO -400)
Good luck everyone!
Reach Senior Sports Editor Max Meyer by email.
