Will Russia And The Ukraine's Historical Ties Win Over Change?
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(Protests in Kiev, Ukraine/ Ryan Anderson, Creative Commons)
See Also: Protests Erupt In Kiev As President Abandons EU Intergration Pact
The country is divided—the western part wants to join Europe, but many in the east want to stick with Russia. The overall consensus of the Ukrainians who want to join the EU is that they are being bullied by Russia, who threatened economic sanctions if the Ukraine joined the EU. Some threats include cutting the Ukraine off from Russian oil.
Putin has a very keen interest in the Ukraine due to many reason, one being that Russian gas pipes run through the country. But the tension between Russia and the Ukraine is not a new one, rather is goes back centuries.
Russia and the Ukraine’s histories are so intertwined that it is sometimes hard to tell them apart. In fact, Russia was born out of Keivan Rus’, a loosely defined federation of East Slavic tribes. The Keivan Rus’ was formed in what is modern day Kiev, the capital of the Ukraine. So quite literally, without the Ukraine there would be no Russia as we know it.
The Ukraine was an ideal location to form such a federation because of the long rivers that ran through it, its proximity to Western Europe, and its rich soil. The land was famous for “black soil” that was perfect for growing wheat, barley, sunflowers, and rapeseed. Further east in what today is Russia the soil was hard and made growing grains difficult.
A quick lesson in history from the Business Insider:
Ukraine was dominated by foreign powers for years, and much of the country has been absorbed into the Russian empire by the 18th century. In 1922 Ukraine and Russia became the two founding members of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (the USSR), though the country's politics and culture were ultimately dominated by Moscow. Additionally, Joseph Stalin's aggressive agricultural policies are believed to have led to millions of Ukrainians dying from famine, something many Ukrainians have not forgotten.
After the fall of Communism and the break between Russia and Ukraine, things grew even more complicated. In particular, many oil and gas pipelines used by Russia to provide Western Europe ran through Ukrainian land. Since Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000, things have grown more tense, with Russia shutting down the Ukrainian gas supply in disputes over debts in both 2006 and 2009. In 2008 Putin reportedly threatened Ukraine with nuclear missiles if the country joined NATO.
It's important to note, however, that not all Ukrainians have negative feelings about Russia. The Eastern part of Ukraine was a part of the Russian empire for centuries, and many people who live there have strong emotional ties to Moscow rule.
Not even ten years after the October Orange Revolution, which was a reaction to blatant electoral fraud and economic trouble, the Ukraine is faced with another political upheaval. Except this time the civil unrest is not based around a single person or party, but rather a general sense of exhaustion from being stuck, while neighboring countries, like Poland begin to grow.
So, the question now is what will happen next in the Ukraine? It is very hard to say, but when considering the history between the Ukraine and Russia it is easy to fall into the traps of pessimism.
The Ukrainian government is notoriously corrupt. For example, in 2004 the government bought anti-retrovial drugs used for aids with donation many, at 27 times more than the market rate. The Global Fund for Aids, Tuberculosis, and Malaria subsequently cut its funding to the Health Ministry and gave it to private organizations. The government is also heavily influenced by the Kremlin. The Ukraine’s current president is a result of Putin’s hold over the country.
One likely outcome of these protests is the removal of president Viktor Yanukovych, which may outwardly seem like progress, but Putin can once again influence who will be the successor.
Need proof? It has happened before…
From Business Insider:
As an aside here, President Yanukovych himself plays an interesting role in the whole thing. The Orange Revolution of 2004 was aimed at stopping Yanukovych from becoming president after an election that was widely believed to be rigged. However, Yanukovych — who speaks Russian and comes from eastern Ukraine — had a comeback in 2010.
And if the Ukraine does ultimately join the EU, it could mean trouble for the already fragile alliance. Ukraine’s economy is terrible and without Russia bailing them out they would have to rely on the EU, specifically Germany and France. Both Germany and France already carry the burden for Greece, Italy, and Ireland, just to name a few. Could they also take on the Ukraine’s financial woes?
Until then one thing is clear, many people in the Ukraine are sick of living in the shadow of the Soviet era and desperately want modernity, whether it be with Russia or Western Europe.
