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NFL Week 10 Betting Preview

Max Meyer |
November 9, 2013 | 8:14 p.m. PST

Senior Sports Editor

 

(Creative Commons)
(Creative Commons)
This week in the NFL features some great afternoon games, one stellar primetime game and potentially the worst Monday Night Football game of all-time. As always, here are my best bets and the rest of my picks against the spread. 

Raiders (+9) over GIANTS

This line is a classic overreaction to a game played the prior week. The Oakland Raiders surrendered seven touchdown passes to the mighty Nick Foles and were blown out of the water against the Philadelphia Eagles. Before that week, Oakland looked great in a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, which is why they were favored last weekend. Now, they are nine-point underdogs against a team that isn't very good at all.

I'm not sure the New York Giants should be favored by more than a touchdown against anyone outside of the Jacksonville Jaguars. A lot of people are back on the Giants' bandwagon after they defeated the likes of Josh Freeman and Matt Barkley in consecutive weeks heading into their bye. However, their run defense has actually been good this season, they haven't allowed an 100-yard rusher this year. 

But, despite Terrelle Pryor's struggles of late, I think he turns it around against the Giants' abysmal secondary. He's ran the ball well recently, but he will need to spread it to his receivers in order to beat the Giants. Additionally, the Raiders have a very solid defense, as they've allowed only 3.7 yards per carry and they have a good pass rush. Considering the Giants two weaknesses on offense are their running backs and offensive line, the Raiders defense will carry them this game. 

The Raiders have bounced back before this season as well. In two of their previous three games in which they lost by double-digits the game before, they've won those contests outright. The Raiders covered as a road underdog on the East Coast in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts, and they will do so again. I just can't trust the Giants as a big favorite, especially at home where they are prone to choke.

RAVENS (+2) over Bengals

I've taken the Baltimore Ravens as a home underdog twice, and both times they have covered against the spread. The Ravens rarely lose at home, they've only lost four times there since the 2010 season. Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers were responsible for two of them, while the other two losses came against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Against an injury-riddled Cincinnati Bengals team, it's time to take advantage of the gift that keeps on giving. 

It's obvious that the Ravens are suffering a Super Bowl hangover season. However, this is a must-win game for them this week if they want to remain in playoff contention, and they will play their hearts out. The Ravens are undervalued after their tough loss to the Cleveland Browns, who are actually a good football team who may have finally found a competent quarterback.

The Bengals lost their top defensive player in defensive tackle Geno Atkins for the remainder of the season. They've also lost Leon Hall and Andrew Whitworth, two of their better players. Like the Ravens, they've also lost to the Browns. They won squeakers against the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions. The Bengals are on the opposite end of the spectrum, they should be considered overvalued. They lost their last game on the road against the Miami Dolphins in overtime, and overtime losers tend to struggle against the spread in their next game. 

The Ravens have won four of their last five meetings against the Bengals, and Joe Flacco often thrives when he's an underdog or a small favorite at home. The Ravens will be hungrier in this game, and will manage to keep their dim playoff hopes alive. 

49ERS (-5.5) over Panthers

The San Francisco 49ers have covered in five straight games, and now they are coming off of a bye week, so they will have had two weeks to prepare for this Carolina Panthers team. The 49ers have really clicked as a team ever since their back-to-back losses against the Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts early in the year. Now their offense is adding another weapon, as wide receiver Mario Manningham will be making his season debut. 

The Panthers have won their last four games by a combined 82 points, but they've also played the lowly Vikings, Rams, Buccaneers and Falcons over that span. Those four teams have won six games this season. The two times Cam Newton has faced elite defenses (Cardinals and Seahawks), he's put up a combined 13 points. The 49ers defense hasn't allowed more than 20 points in five games, and difference-maker Aldon Smith will be returning after his alcohol-related absence. 

The 49ers have the top-ranked rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 153 yards per game. With a healthy Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin and Manningham, Colin Kaepernick can open up the passing game and make the 49ers offense extremely dangerous. They will need to, as the Panthers have a very good run defense, allowing only 3.8 yards per carry. 

When the 49ers have been favored by 3.5 points or more at home under Jim Harbaugh, they are 12-5 against the spread. They have a great home-field advantage, and they will continue to roll in a battle amongst the hottest teams in the NFL. 

Other Picks:

TITANS (-13) over Jaguars

PACKERS (PK) over Eagles

Bills (+3) over STEELERS

Rams (+10.5) over COLTS

Seahawks (-3.5) over FALCONS

Lions (PK) over BEARS

CARDINALS (-2.5) over Texans

CHARGERS (+7.5) over Broncos

SAINTS (-6.5) over Cowboys

Dolphins (-1) over BUCCANEERS

LAST WEEK 7-6 || SEASON 65-51-1 || BEST BETS 10-8

Reach Senior Sports Editor Max Meyer by email.

Follow @TheMaxMeyer


 



 

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