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3 Ways Cardinals Can Win And Lose To Dodgers In NLCS

Andrew Tweedy |
October 11, 2013 | 4:39 p.m. PDT

Staff Writer

Kenley Jansen has been one of the best closers in baseball this season (Keith Allison/Creative Commons)
Kenley Jansen has been one of the best closers in baseball this season (Keith Allison/Creative Commons)

With the Los Angeles Dodgers headed on the road to face the St. Louis Cardinals for Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Friday night, baseball fans everywhere can expect a great series ahead, as these two teams were arguably the best in the league during the regular season.  Both teams are rich with talent, young and old, with a series that will feature veteran postseason heroes of years past as well as many youngsters getting ready to make their NLCS debuts.

On the Cardinals' side, this team is fresh off a five-game NLDS victory over the Pirates during which they saw one of their rookie starters, Michael Wacha, take a no-hit bid into the eighth inning of Game 4 and their staff ace, Adam Wainwright, propel them into the NLCS with a dominant complete game effort in Game 5.  Now the Cardinals are at home for Game 1, set to face the Dodgers in what should be a very evenly-matched series.  Here are three factors that will lead to the Cardinals losing the series, followed by three factors that will lead to the Cardinals winning the series.

SEE MORE: NLDS Recap: Uribe's Long Ball Lifts Dodgers Into NLCS

The Cardinals will lose this series if the Dodgers can capitalize on these three factors:

1. The Cardinals shallow bench vs. the strong LA bullpen.

The Cardinals do not have a reliable bench these days, given the talent (or lack thereof) they have, seeing as their best pinch-hitting option is probably Pete Kozma (who hit .217 with 1 home run this year), followed by Shane Robinson and Kolten Wong.  Allen Craig will not be activated for the series as manager Mike Matheny announced on Friday, so against a dominant Dodgers bullpen, these late-inning match-ups do not favor St. Louis.

With Brian Wilson as the eighth inning set-up man and Kenley Jansen as one of the best, most overlooked, closers in baseball, the Dodgers will have a good chance of winning games in which they have the lead going into the eighth inning.  Wilson has only allowed one run since coming back from Tommy John surgery, good for an 0.66 ERA over 13.2 innings, and looking as dominant as ever along the way.  Jansen has been one of the best closers in baseball this year, posting a 1.88 ERA and a 0.861 WHIP over 76.2 innings, while accumulating 28 saves.  The Cardinals will have trouble getting much offensive production out of their starters against the late-inning Dodgers bullpen, let alone from their role players on the bench, which could spell trouble for St. Louis.

2. The Dodgers have arguably the best starting pitching 1-2 punch in baseball.

Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke are really, really good.  Even if the Cardinals beat the Dodgers in every game that Kershaw and Greinke do not pitch in, St. Louis will still have to beat one of the two Dodgers' aces at least once as well.  This is a tall task given how well both of these guys have pitched this year.  Kershaw is one of the elite pitchers in the game at 25 years old, and just came off one of his best seasons to date, going 16-9 with 3 complete games, posting a ridiculously low ERA of 1.83 and a WHIP of only 0.915, while compiling 232 strikeouts compared to only 57 walks, over the course of 236.0 innings.  Greinke has not been too shabby himself, allowing only 21 runs in his past 17 starts, good for a 1.65 ERA.  He serves as a second ace of the staff, which is why Dodgers fans should have no qualms over Greinke having to start Game 1 after the Dodgers elected to use Kershaw on short rest in Game 4 to seal the NLDS win.

So, even if the Cardinals beat whichever combination of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Ricky Nolasco, and Edison Volquez the Dodgers decide to roll out for the games that Kershaw and Greinke do not start, they will still have to take down one of the two best pitchers in the game right now to have any shot at winning this series.

3. Hanley Ramirez is the hottest hitter in the game.

For as much attention as Yasiel Puig has gotten since making his major league debut on June 3, Hanley Ramirez has been the MVP of this team since his return from the thumb injury he sustained in the World Baseball Classic in March while playing for the Dominican Republic national team.  Hanley finished the season with a .345 average, .402 OBP, 1.040 OPS, 20 home runs, and 57 RBI in only 86 games.  Through September and October, he has hit at a .370 clip, carrying his strong season into the most important months of the year and leading the Dodgers through the NLDS, posting a .500 batting average, 1.619 OPS, 1 home run, and 6 RBI through four games.

If Ramirez continues on his torrid hitting streak (and there is really no reason to believe that he won't), he will pose a serious threat to the Cardinals' chances of moving on to the World Series.  St. Louis will have to do their best to contain his power and they may be better off simply pitching around Ramirez to take their chances against other Dodgers hitters, because there does not seem to be any way to get Hanley out these days.

Carlos Beltran has been historically dominant in the postseason (bobcrowe_com/Creative Commons)
Carlos Beltran has been historically dominant in the postseason (bobcrowe_com/Creative Commons)
SEE MORE: Adam Wainwright's Complete Game Sends Cardinals To NLCS

The Cardinals will win this series if they accomplish these three things:

1. Better production with runners in scoring position.

The Cardinals set a major league record this season by hitting at a .330 clip with runners in scoring position, but hit only .185 in those same situations against the Pirates in the NLDS.  Against a star-studded Dodgers' rotation, the Cardinals will have to capitalize on whatever offensive opportunities they can get, because those opportunities may very well be few and far between against Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw.

St. Louis trotted out arguably the best lineup in the league this year, anchored by Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, and Allen Craig.  However, with Craig sitting out this series with a Lisfranc injury, much of the responsibility of driving runners in will fall on the top of the Cardinals' batting order.  If Carlos Beltran can continue his annual postseason impersonation of Babe Ruth and maintain his dominance in October, he could carry this team past the Dodgers and into the World Series.

2. Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright continue to dominate.

Wacha is only a 22-year-old rookie, but after his last two starts, he has generated quite a lot of hype around himself.  After taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning in his last regular season start against the Washington Nationals, he followed up with a no-hit bid into the eighth inning in his postseason debut in Game 4 of the NLDS.  In his last two starts combined, Wacha has surrendered 2 hits in 16 innings, making it look easy along the way.  While no one can expect him to maintain these numbers, if he turns in two solid starts in the NLCS, he could solidify the rotation until Game 3, when Adam Wainwright will make his next start.

Wainwright has been filthy in his own right, winning Games 1 and 5 of the NLDS while giving up only two runs over 16 innings of work.  He dominated Game 5 with a complete game gem, and the Cardinals will need that type of production from their ace in order to have any chance of winning the series against the Dodgers.

3. Mike Matheny out-manages Don Mattingly.

While it seems like ages ago that Dodgers' manager Don Mattingly was in fear of losing his job after LA got off to a 30-42 start, he made some questionable decisions in the NLDS that led to a Game 2 loss and could very well have resulted in a Game 4 loss as well.  In Game 2 in Atlanta, the Braves had runners on second and third with two outs in the seventh inning, while leading 2-1.  When Mattingly brought lefty reliever, Paco Rodriguez, into the game to face Jose Costanza, Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez countered by bringing right-handed hitter Reed Johnson to the plate. Mattingly had Rodriguez intentionally walk Johnson to create a lefty-on-lefty matchup with the bases loaded against Jason Heyward, who actually had a higher batting average this year against lefties than he did against righties, and is one of the best young stars in the game.  This strategy backfired on Mattingly and the Braves extended their lead to 4-1 after Heyward rocketed a 2 RBI single up the middle.

Mattingly also almost cost the Dodgers a win in Game 4 when he called for Juan Uribe to bunt over the tying run from second to third in the eighth inning.  Uribe's strong suit has never been bunting, and he failed to get the bunt down on two attempts, digging himself into an 0-2 hole, largely caused by Mattingly's poor managerial decision to put the bunt sign on in the first place, with Uribe at the plate.  Luckily for Mattingly, Uribe launched a go-ahead home run into the left field seats to give the Dodgers a lead they would not relinquish.

While these are small details in the larger scheme of the games and the series as a whole, it is a manager's job to make the right calls in situations in which managing is necessary, such as pitching changes and bunt signs.  Matheny did not have very many opportunities to make serious mistakes as a manager in the NLDS, because in the Cardinals' three wins, their pitchers went deep into games, limiting his need to use the bullpen.  However, if Mattingly continues to make questionable calls and Matheny can effectively use his bullpen, the St. Louis manager could contribute immensely to the Cardinals' effort in the series.

The pick: Cardinals in seven.

 

Reach Staff Writer Andrew Tweedy here.  Follow @nyy_baseball.



 

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