NBA Betting Preview: Best Win Total Bets
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Despite having Ty Lawson, the Nuggets will struggle making the postseason this year. (Creative Commons)
Denver Nuggets: UNDER 47 Wins
The Nuggets had a fantastic season last year, but after their first-round loss to the Golden State Warriors, their team has crumbled quite a bit. They lost their two best defenders in the offseason in Andre Iguodala and Corey Brewer. Those two were also spark plugs throughout last season, playing with intense energy and even the occasional offensive outburst.
Denver is replacing those wingmen with Randy Foye and Nate Robinson, two guys who don't impact the game in as many areas as their predecessors. It will also be difficult for them to give playing time to Robinson when they have Ty Lawson and Andre Miller ahead of him on the point guard depth chart.
Their big men are even more of a question mark. They traded starting center Kosta Koufas to the Memphis Grizzlies for Darrell Arthur, who was nothing more than a rotation guy last year. So now, one of the biggest enigmas in the NBA, Javale McGee, is the starting center for them. They also have Kenneth Faried and newly acquired J.J. Hickson as their other main bigs in their rotation. The problem is though, none of these guys are very good interior defenders.
The Nuggets also had turnover off the court, as Brian Shaw is their new coach, replacing George Karl. Former general manager and executive of the year Masai Ujiri has moved on to the Raptors, and Denver has brought in Tim Connelly.
Shaw will probably slow down the Nuggets this season, even though their fast play overshadowed a few of their weaknesses last year. Danilo Gallinari will miss a portion of the season after suffering a knee injury. Denver doesn't have a shutdown defender anymore, and they will struggle keeping their opponents from scoring fewer than 100 points per game.
A projected 47 win total is too high for a team that has changed a lot this offseason. Add in the fact that they play in a very deep Western Conference, and the under seems like a very safe bet.
Oklahoma City Thunder: OVER 50.5 Wins
So you're telling me that Vegas thinks that a 60 win team last season will have 10 fewer wins this season? People seem to forget that the Thunder were one of the best teams in the NBA last season, since they still have the sour taste in their mouths from the Thunder's postseason performance and the James Harden trade.
The major reason for this low line is Russell Westbrook's torn meniscus injury that he suffered in last year's playoffs. Yet, Westbrook is already partially practicing, and is only expected to miss the first four to six weeks of the season. Oklahoma City's schedule to start off the season isn't that tough though. They play teams that did not make the postseason last year in their first six games.
The other big loss for the Thunder is Kevin Martin, who was the main player they got back in the James Harden deal. Martin was key because he was their third-best offensive threat last season. The Thunder hope that second-year swingman Jeremy Lamb can take over that role.
Regardless, those two reasons aren't enough for a projected 9.5 win drop-off. They still have the second-best player in the NBA in Kevin Durant. Westbrook is a top-ten player when healthy. Serge Ibaka struggled in the postseason, but he's still a dynamic presence on the court. The Thunder also have a nice mix of young talent and depth.
Washington Wizards: UNDER 42 Wins
The Wizards had a strong finish last season, but the notion that they are a clear playoff team with a healthy John Wall is laughable. In fact, the Wizards finished 24-25 last season when Wall played, which projects them at only 40 wins over a full season.
Washington did not have a great offseason. They re-signed Martell Webster for $22 million over four years, essentially overpaying for a guy who had a decent season and who coincidentally has the same agent as Wall. Because of the money they spent on Webster, the two other free agent acquisitions they landed were Eric Maynor and Al Harrington. The Wizards don't have enough star power yet to rely on a subpar bench.
Rookie and third-overall pick Otto Porter has an injured hip and reportedly has had a slow start to his NBA career. The Wizards need a big rookie season from Porter in order to have a winning record. Their big man depth isn't ideal, as Nene and Emeka Okafor are both old and injury-prone. And I don't think that Harrington, Kevin Seraphin or Jan Vesely are suitable to take over in a starting role if one of the starters went down.
The Wizards have young talent led by Wall and Bradley Beal, but they don't have the rest of the roster ready to compete for a playoff spot. General manager Ernie Grunfield is in the last year of his contract, and could feel pressure to make a midseason deal. Yet, his last big blockbuster in the midst of a playoff chase was trading the eventually #5 pick in the NBA draft (which ended up being Ricky Rubio) for the immortal Randy Foye and Mike Miller.
Portland Trail Blazers: OVER 38.5 Wins
The Trail Blazers could definitely be a surprise playoff team this year, and I was surprised that Vegas gave them a very low win total. After all, Portland had a fantastic offseason, one of the better ones in the NBA, even though they didn't add a franchise player.
The big key was that they acquired a bench. The reason behind the Trail Blazers' struggles last season was that they didn't have anyone to backup a very strong starting lineup. Now, they have a very formidable second unit.
One of their best signings was Mo Williams, a veteran point guard who will be playing behind Damian Lillard. Williams is a good distributor who can also shoot, and will be a good presence in the locker room. They drafted C.J. McCollum, who will be a big boost off the bench in his rookie season. The Blazers also signed Dorrell Wright, a sharpshooting forward.
The other substantial upgrade Portland has is big man depth. The Blazers struggled with interior defense last season, thanks to have one of the worst post-defenders in the NBA in J.J. Hickson and an undersized center in LaMarcus Aldridge. Thanks to the acquisition of center Robin Lopez, Aldridge can now move back to power forward, his natural position. Aldridge had to deal with playing against bigger bodies and not getting enough rest last season.
Aldridge will be getting his rest as well, because the Trail Blazers traded for Thomas Robinson as their backup power forward. Robinson has had an unfair shake so far in his NBA career, but the former lottery pick still has promise. The big question with the big men is their post defense, but it can't be any worse than it was last year.
This is a strong offensive team with two potential All-Stars and a much-improved bench. The Blazers will finish with a winning record this season, and will easily have at least 39 wins.
Reach Senior Sports Editor Max Meyer by email.
