2013 ALDS Preview: Red Sox vs. Rays

Boston Pitching Concerns: It’s Not Fried Chicken and Beer
The Sox have managed to make by on their pitching all season, with many fans waiting on the edge of their seat for it all to blow up. Boston still lacks an ace, a position they have been looking to fill for a while.
While the pitchers look somewhat hot, with Game 1 starter Jon Lester going 7-2 with an ERA of 2.57 since the All-Star break, his overall ERA of 3.75 means things could go downhill quickly. He pitched 7 and 2/3 great innings in the opening win, but his stats aren't indicative of anything close to a sure bet on the mound.
Clay Buchholz is coming back from injury, and while he does look good with a record of 3-1 and a 1.88 ERA since being back, Sox fans probably wish they had at least half a month longer to get him back to where he needs to be.
One player who is a definite bright spot for the Sox’s bullpen is closer Koji Uehera, who has had a downright heroic run for Boston this season. In the 74.1 innings he has pitched, he has only allowed 33 hits and has an ERA of 1.08. On top of that, he has struck out 101 batters and only walked 11, including two intentional walks. The Sox are ready for this man to make his mark in the postseason.
Keep Their Bats Ringing: Boston’s Offense
The Red Sox offense is ranked second best in the American League, and it shows in the way that they seem to be constantly productive with the bat. While they have solid defense, Shane Victorino, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia all are great anchors.
They have an offensive split of .277/.349/.446 for the season, ranking them in the American League at second, first and first respectively. The usual suspects are definitely people who can be looked to as having an impact on this offense: Ortiz batting .309 with 30 homeruns, Pedroia cranking 193 hits and Ellsbury batting .298 with 172 hits.
But the beauty of this Sox team is that every player seems to be getting “theirs” offensively. Napoli has crushed 23 dingers this season, and Saltalamacchia has 65 RBIs. Daniel Nava has come out as a real offensive threat, batting .303 with a slugging percentage of .445.
The point is that when the game is on the line, the Sox no longer have to turn to just their stars. That is what this whole beard movement is about. They are a team, and the pitch hitter can make just as big of a play as the starter. They know it, and even more importantly they are confident of it.
Step Yo’ Game Up: Tampa’s Offense
The Rays are not known as an offensive team. Defense and pitching is what has gotten them this far, and they know that.
Their offensive splits are .257/.329/.408, which ranks them in AL at seventh, third and ninth respectively. They are not power hitters, belting only 165 homers (ninth in the AL) and opt for the walk-above-all strategy, leading the American League in bases-on-balls with 589.
The offensive side of the ball is going to be the biggest test for the Rays, as they have 143 less runs than the Sox this season, and have a record of 12-7 versus Boston.
This is not to say the Rays are bad at the bat. Evan Longoria ranked seventh in the league in cranking 32 home runs this season, and that high walk total shows a great patience when at bat.
The Rays are just going to have to dig deep into themselves to find a way to respond during the games when the Sox bats are hot, otherwise it will be a painful series.
Bread and Butter: Tampa’s Defense and Pitching
Tampa Bay has an amazing infield, anchored by Yunel Escobar at shortstop, Evan Longoria at third and Ben Zorbist at second, all of whom have a ultimate zone rating of at least 10 or over. Not only that, but Tampa Bay had an defensive efficiency of .990, making only 59 errors off of 6,044 chances.
Behind the plate they are no slouch either, as Jose Molina’s pitch framing ability is so good that since 2008, 13.4% of all pitches outside of the strike-zone have been called strikes when caught by him. This could definitely hamper the Red Sox, a team that values walks as part of their offense and ranks second in the American League behind the Rays with 581 bases-on-balls.
But for as good as the defense is, the pitching is even better. Matt Moore struggled mightily in Game 1, but is 17-4 on the season and should bounce if he has another start, while David Price, who has a 3.33 ERA, will start Game 2.

On top of their strong pitching, the Sox may struggle against Moore and Price because they are both left-handed, something that Boston has struggled with all season. The Sox bat .283 when facing right handed pitchers, but slump down to .265 against southpaws.
Their third pitcher in rotation is Alex Cobb, who has gone 7-0 when at home and will face the Red Sox at Tropicana for Game 3. Manager Joe Maddon has intricately thought out every single piece of this pitching rotation. It is not just that they have good pitchers; it is that they have good pitchers and placed in the right spots. That is what makes them such a threat to the Red Sox’s offense.
X-Factors
Red Sox
Blood, sweat, and beards. But actually.
It should be pointed out that these beards are real reminiscent to the “Cowboy Up” movement in 2004.
Not only that, but a lot of the players are taking a similar role as the 2004 squad. They engage with the fans, have fun, but at the end of the day work the hardest they can to win the ball game even if it might not look pretty.
It’s the blue-collar attitude that Bostonians have come to love and cherish, and it certainly is one that will be winning the fans in Fenway over.
Tampa
I don’t think Tampa likes the Sox at all. Do you remember this twitter feud the two clubs had earlier this season when the Rays were still in the hunt for the division?
It was kind of weird, and overly-aggressive. The fact is that the Red Sox have never really respected the Rays, considering that for the majority of their inception they have been a AAA team in the wrong league.
But now they actually match up well against the Sox and could really give them a run for their money, and they know it. How else would they be able to win three must-win road games at the end of the season and first round of the playoffs?
They want to face these Red Sox. They want to show the American League East and the rest of the league that the Sox and Yankees aren’t the only contenders. Look for that momentum to ride them into the series.
Prediction:
This is probably going to be the best series of the Division Series. Not to say that any series in playoff baseball isn’t worth watching, but the intensity from the players and the fans gives this matchup all the elements to be one of those classic playoff series.
Both teams want it, and both teams are going to grind for it.
There will be blood, sweat and, well... beards.
Boston in 5.
Reach Staff Reporter Mark Albano here or follow him on Twitter.