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Obama's Syria Speech Should Reflect Recent Developments

Cameron Beaulieu |
September 10, 2013 | 11:36 a.m. PDT

Staff Reporter

President Obama/Wikimedia Commons
President Obama/Wikimedia Commons
President Barack Obama will address the nation on the current situation in Syria Tuesday at 6pm PST . Less than 24 hours ago, Obama's speech would have been geared as an effort to convince the American public on the importance of international military intervention in Syria, but the agenda has changed.  

A seemingly offhanded remark by Secretary of State John Kerry on Monday pertaining to Syrian President Assad's option to avoid U.S. military intervention may have actually given Syria a viable alternative to war.

Kerry stated, "Sure, (Assad) could turn over every single bit of his chemical weapons to the international community in the next week... but he isn't about to do it and it can't be done."

Syria, however, thinks it can be done.

Early Tuesday morning the Foreign Minister of Syria announced that the nation would relinquish control of their chemical weapons stockpile to the international community. 

What then does this mean for Obama's address to the nation tonight? President Obama will have to appear both willing to compromise with Syrian cooperation and yet remain steadfast in his dedication to the importance of a military response should the Syrian government not comply.

A poll released on Monday indicated that only 28% of the American public supported international action with 63% against and 9% unsure of the correct course of action. More than a decade of military of continued involvement in the Middle East has left the American public skeptical of the value of further intervention and possibly war. 

Especially present in the minds of American's is Presiden't Bush's early term promises that Iraq was in possession of WMD's, a proclamation that helped garner quite a bit of support for the Iraq war.

Obama has made similar promises about Syria's use of chemical weapons. A top Obama aide stated Monday that the administration lacks "irrefutable, beyond-a-reasonable-doubt evidence" that Assad ordered a chemical weapons attack, although they are adamant that a "common sense test" confirms their suspicions. The world of military intelligence has long been considered an art, not a science, and it will be up to the American public to determine after Obama's speech wether they believe his claims. 

Additionally, any military intervention by the United States government is planned to be no where near the scope of recent previous U.S. military action in the Middle East. Secretary of State Kerry relayed that the military intervention would be an "unbelievably small, limited kind of effort," without any sort of troops on the ground. He reiterated that the attack would be used only to hold Assad accountable for the use of chemical weapons and that the Syrian civil war as a whole still required a political solution. 

With more than three years left in Obama's presidency, Tuesday's speech will be important in addressing his credibility as a leader. President Obama has long ago recognized the Syrian rebels as the legitimate representation of the Syrian people and set a red line on the use of chemical weapons. Should Obama continue to back off of this red line in his speech, as recent statements have indicated, he must do so without demonstrating weak resolve in his foreign policy towards Syria.

Despite Syria's recent agreement to hand over its stash of chemical weapons, the Obama administration remains skeptical of the Syrian Government's sincerity in the statement. In response to Secretary of State Kerry's statement about Syria handing over its chemical weapons, the U.S. state department stated, "His point was that this brutal dictator with a history of playing fast and loose with the facts cannot be trusted to turn over chemical weapons, otherwise he would have done so long ago."

There is always a possibility that Syria's cooperation is a ruse in order to buy more time for President Assad as he continues to wage a civil war. Additionally it will always be difficult to confirm whether Syria has turned over all weapons, if the government decides to do so at all. The supposed chemical weapon cooperation has already caused The White House to linger slightly on its decision to call for a quick congressional vote to approve the use of military force. 

Republicans and Democrats are divided on the issue, especially after British Parliament voted no on a Syrian intervention in late August. A few Senators, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, have already publicly stated that they would vote no on a Syria resolution. As Obama attempts to sway Congress to support a military plan, Majority Leader Harry Reid delayed a procedural vote scheduled for Wednesday to give the President more time to address every Senator. Obama still has not publicly statee what his course of action will be if Congress votes against the resolution, reiterating on Monday "It's fair to say I haven't decided."

Syria has also reportedly agreed to discolse the location of its chemical weapons and will consider joining The Chemical Weapons Convention, per the U.N.'s request, but it is unclear how the cancellation of The Security Council meeting will affect the Obama adminsitration's decision process. 

Costly and unsuccessful wars in the Middle East seem to be an ongoing trend for American presidents and weigh heavily on the minds of American citizens, since the United States has engaged in military action abroad about once a year since the founding of the Republic. Syria could be the next U.S. military focus, even though a majority of Americans decry the idea.

President Obama's Speech can be viewed on most major news networks at 6pm PST

Contact Staff Reporter Cameron here and follow him on twitter 



 

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