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Small Business Owners' Optimism About Economy Fell In August

Lexie Barker |
September 13, 2013 | 10:54 a.m. PDT

Staff Contributor

NFIB's monthly survey monitors changes in small business performance and expectations.
NFIB's monthly survey monitors changes in small business performance and expectations.
Small business owners’ outlook on the economy barely budged from a month earlier, as a lousy late-summer performance was tempered by high expectations for the coming months.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)’s Small Business Optimism Index for August came in at 94.0, a slight decline from the July reading of 94.1. Reports have showed an overall increase in the Index over the past six months. The July reading was the fourth highest since the recovery began in June 2009. 

NFIB surveys a swath of its membership every month, asking about 30 questions to determine trends in 10 categories, such as job creation and plans to increase employment. Findings are then synthesized into a single number, based on a scale of 100 that is supposed to reflect the economic outlook of small business owners.

The outcome of the survey is an important reading on the health of the “Main Street” economy, as small businesses contribute nearly half of GDP and employ more than half of the private workforce.

The results showed expectations for increased employment and improved sales in July went unfulfilled in August. Job openings fell four points and earnings took a more staggering 13 point hit.  

These unfavorable readings, however, didn’t dim expectations for a more buoyant fall quarter. Plans to increase employment rose seven points this month over last. Expected sales also saw a bump, gaining eight points this month. 

NFIB chief economist, Bill Dunkelberg, attributed the stagnation, in part, to the Congressional recess which spanned the month of August. He doesn’t think their return will affect small business optimism, given everything else on Congress’s plate.  

“[W]ith Syria on the horizon, the budget situation still up in the air, and Obamacare being rolled out, clarity over our economic direction is not likely to be the outcome,” Dunkelberg said in a press release Tuesday. 

The NFIB’s lobbying arm in Washington D.C., recognized as one of the more successful advocacy groups by Forbes, campaigns on behalf of their members whose recent worries have included the cost to implement the new health care law.  

NFIB State Director of California John Kabateck said the “elephant in the room is the health care law. There is so much uncertainty given the cost pressures.” He has noticed a trend in the lack of development and innovation among member businesses. 

“Many business are in maintenance mode. Just hunkering down, keeping the car in neutral. They are not trying to put a target on their back. It’s a sad statement, but they’re just not doing much to shake it up,” he added.

Reach Staff Contributor Lexie Barker here



 

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