Lane Kiffin is the reason reason why the USC over isn't a lock. (James Santelli, Neon Tommy)

Naturally, my eyes wandered quickly to see what LVH SuperBook had projected for USC. I was a little surprised to see USC’s over/under set at 9.5 wins, especially coming off their disappointing season. Even though there’s no juice on either side of the total (it’s -110 for both over and under 9.5 wins), bettors are expected to hammer USC’s under because they will have a new starting quarterback and the gambling community loves to bet against Lane Kiffin, whether he’s in the NFL or college football. 

Yet, for sports gamblers, betting right after making a quick perception can often lead towards a disastrous result. And believe it or not, I am now fully on board in believing that USC can very well win 10 or more games this season.

Last season was brutal, after USC arguably had the most disappointing season in college football history. However, taking advantage of the public’s negative perception towards how USC will fare this season seems like a very smart play. 

Listen, I hate having to bet on anything Lane Kiffin touches. But, if the USC’s over/under win total drops even further or if the juice increases for betting the over, I am actually very intrigued by this bet. I know this is the unpopular opinion, but here are the reasons why:

1. USC Plays An Extra Game In The Regular Season

This for me is the biggest reason why USC’s over for their win total is such a strong underdog bet. When USC was banned from the postseason in 2010, they took advantage of a loophole in the NCAA rulebook to play an extra game.

Here’s the rule in the NCAA Division 1 Manual: 

17.28.2 Alaska/Hawaii, Additional Football Contest
Member institutions located in Alaska and Hawaii shall be permitted to exceed, by one, the maximum number of football contests permitted under Bylaw 17.9.5.1 but otherwise shall conform to the same maximum number of contests and dates of competition permitted other members of the Association.

The reason why the NCAA allows this is because of the amount of money it costs to travel to Hawaii just to play a football game. By playing an additional game, the NCAA feels that the additional revenue in playing an extra game makes up for it.

2. USC’s Non-Conference Schedule

So USC will play four out of conference games instead of three this season. Besides their annual battle with Notre Dame, the Trojans will play Hawaii, Boston College and Utah State. 

While it’s a road game, USC has had no trouble handling Hawaii in the past. In 2010, USC won 49-36, even though the game was at Aloha Stadium. USC’s 39-point thrashing of Hawaii was their second biggest margin of victory last season. 

USC is a 22.5-point road favorite against Hawaii, so predicting the Trojans to dispatch them is an easy call. 

Boston College finished 2-10 last season, and they have to travel to the West Coast to take on USC at Los Angeles Coliseum. There’s been tougher tasks accomplished, but I just don’t see BC prevailing in the game.

Utah State is tougher, even if it’s a home game for USC. The Aggies finished 11-2 last season, and they beat 20th ranked Louisiana Tech on the road. They only lost by two points against Wisconsin in Madison. They beat their in-state rival and Pac-12 school Utah. But keep in mind, Utah and Wisconsin struggled early in the season before picking it up later on. Also, I’m sorry, but wins in the WAC don’t impress me very much. Just ask the voters when they have to select their Top 25 from week to week. 

Notre Dame on the road is the toughest non-conference game for USC this season. However, this year’s Irish looks a lot different from last year’s one-loss squad. A big reason for Notre Dame’s success in 2012 was because it was a senior-filled team. Besides losing many graduates, their starting quarterback, Everett Golson, got kicked off the team this offseason. USC has to be relieved that they’ll most likely be facing the immortal Tommy Rees instead.

Honestly, at worst, I see USC finishing 3-1 in those four games.

3. USC’s Conference Schedule

USC caught a huge break this season by not having to face two Pac-12 teams with winning records in 2012, Oregon and Washington, in the regular season. Additionally, USC plays three conference games that they will be able to win easily: Washington State and Utah at home, along with traveling to play against Colorado.

If USC were to beat their over/under win total in the regular season, they will most likely have to win five out of these six tougher conference games. They include home games against UCLA, Stanford, Arizona and road games against Arizona State, Cal and Oregon State.

The three hardest games I see on this slate are UCLA, Stanford and Arizona State. Luckily, two of these games are at home. UCLA improved dramatically in Jim Mora’s first year as head coach, but USC did beat UCLA just two seasons ago 50-0. 

But, there are troubling trends in the other two games. USC hasn’t beaten Stanford in four years. Stanford also clearly has the coaching advantage with David Shaw over Lane Kiffin. 

Additionally, USC’s last two road games in the state of Arizona have resulted in losses, including a 21-point demolition against Arizona State in 2011. Vegas also thinks Arizona State will have a very good year, their over/under win total is set at eight at LVH. 

If USC loses only two out of these six tougher conference games, they should finish with at least 10 wins. While I think Stanford should be favored even though they are on the road against USC, the Trojans should be favorites to win every other Pac-12 game in my book. 

4. Lane Kiffin Needs A Strong Season To Survive

I am already on record in believing that Kiffin should not be the head coach. However, if Kiffin still wants to have his dream job after this season, he’s going to need a strong season. Honestly, a BCS appearance is most likely his only saving grace, but the minimum is an appearance in the Pac-12 Championship game. 

Kiffin needs to light a fire under his team. If he can do that, his team is still very talented and can compete with the rest of the country. They have one of the top, if not the best, receiving corps in the country. Outside of cornerback, USC has talent at every other defensive position. Along with hiring new defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast, their defense will improve from the unit that allowed at least 28 points five times last season.

Quarterback is the biggest question mark for the Trojans, but I can think of many worse situations than throwing to Marqise Lee and Nelson Agholor. Kiffin also has the schedule to pull off a strong season, considering USC doesn’t play Oregon and get Stanford and UCLA at home.

I would wait a bit because this bet is going to get even juicier, but watch out for 2013 USC football to be one of the better gambles during this college football season.

Reach Senior Sports Editor Max Meyer by email.

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