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In Hospice, L.A. Republicans Could Use A Good Ol' Crisis

Matt Pressberg |
May 14, 2013 | 1:54 p.m. PDT

Editor-at-Large

It may take a tempest in the city to produce another Republican mayor. (channone/Flickr)
It may take a tempest in the city to produce another Republican mayor. (channone/Flickr)
This article is part of an ongoing partnership with L.A. Currents.

With the two mayoral candidates locked in a neck-and-neck race, there is at least one certainty in next week’s election: A Democrat will become the 42nd mayor of Los Angeles. Assuming that either Eric Garcetti or Wendy Greuel serves out at least one term as mayor, that will mean the Democratic Party will have controlled City Hall for 16 years.

The good news for local Republicans is that American political history all but guarantees Democratic dominance in L.A. will not last forever. But how are the Republicans going to get out of this current fix? According to several Republican insiders, it may not be as hard as it seems, as the conditions for a strong, pro-business candidate (with a laser-like focus on local issues) to take back the mayoralty might be only one crisis away.

“I do believe there’s [enough] votes that the right Republican, the right independent, could definitely become mayor of Los Angeles, but it all depends on whether they’re truly responsive to what the people of L.A. need,” said Bonnie Reiss, the global director of the Schwarzenegger Institute at the University of Southern California and a former California education secretary and senior adviser to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. “Whether it’s riots or whether it’s fiscal crisis or our schools . . . whatever the issue that rises to the level of ‘it’s so bad that people are mad as hell and they’re not going to take it anymore’ — normally that also means new and different kinds of candidates emerge.”

“Here’s how it could happen,” said Walter Moore, who ran for mayor as an independent in 2009, winning 26 percent of the vote after receiving only three percent when he ran as a Republican in 2005. “You have an individual with charisma, who although he or she is not registered as a Democrat, is very articulate and focuses on the very nonpartisan city issues, because the issues of the city aren’t all ideological. And you’d need a person like that to go up against someone, say an incumbent, who has just been a disaster.”

 “Other than that,” he continued, “I just don’t see it happening, because the R-word horrifies the majority of L.A. voters.”

Much has been made of the failings of the national Republican party, which certainly hasn’t helped the party brand in L.A. But Reiss says L.A. voters care less about the foolish musings of a senator in Missouri and more about the local issues that affect their day-to-day lives.

“Will you get them out of traffic? Will you help fix schools? Will you be good on public safety? Will there be jobs? Will your kids be able to go to college? I think [these concerns] are always more important to voters of a city, necessarily, than social issues,” she said.

L.A.’s last Republican mayor, Richard Riordan, won handily in two elections before retiring in 2001. He remains a popular figure in Los Angeles (with the exception of the public-sector unions, with whom he has clashed both in and out of office). Even at 83 years of age Riordan still holds considerable sway.

“We don’t know if there’s another Dick Riordan–type person,” said Reiss, who described this theoretical candidate as a Republican who “reflects the values and understands the needs of the majority of people in L.A. better than what we think of as the standard positions of the state or of the national Republican Party.”

Reiss mentioned real estate developer Rick Caruso as a possible Riordan-like figure who could change the calculus and galvanize Republicans, independents, and disenchanted Democrats.

“Could there be a ‘business Republican’ that ends up running next time and really understands what the needs of the people of L.A. are and runs a great campaign?” Reiss asked. “Yeah, it’s possible.”

Neither party has shown much leadership with regard to a different business issue, the debate over marijuana dispensaries. Local marijuana-legalization efforts, which have led to a slew of confusing ballot initiatives, could be an ideal issue for a personal-freedom-minded Republican to attract crossover support. Moore believes such a candidate could outperform a more traditional Republican in L.A.

“Ron Paul could kill,” he said. “Ron Paul got college students motivated to show up. So yeah, a libertarian-type Republican could do much better.”

Moore believes the local and state party apparatus should dedicate more resources to voter turnout. By the end of the primary, Kevin James — the sole Republican — was applauded for strong showings in the debates  yet despite his formidable public speaking abilities, he only received about 60,000 votes.

There are about 290,000 registered Republicans in Los Angeles. Garcetti and Greuel advanced to the mayoral runoff with around 121,000 and 107,000 votes, respectively.

The current stable of L.A. Republicans may appear uninspiring, but that works both ways: While voters are not rushing to the polls to vote for anyone — Republican or Democrat — they're also not clamoring to “throw the bums out.” But if conditions fail to improve in the next four years, that could change, likely improving the lot of whichever outlier candidate ultimately emerges.

“It depends on the Republican, who they are, where they stand on the issues, and their ability to understand what the voters want and to campaign accordingly,” Reiss said.

In the meantime, ambitious Republicans interested in office space on Spring Street can look forward to 2017, when they’ll get another shot in what will likely be another low-turnout municipal election. Moore thinks their only chance is to run as what he calls an “undercover Republican” — or an elephant in donkey’s clothing.

“I don’t have a crystal ball, but based on my years of experience with local politics here, I don’t think it is likely that Republicans will win in the next citywide elections. And I think anyone who has political aspirations here, even if they have more libertarian or fiscally conservative views, they’ll just run as a Democrat.”

Read more of Neon Tommy's coverage of the Los Angeles mayoral race here.

Reach Editor-at-Large Matt Pressberg here.



 

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