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China's Support Of North Korea Will Depend On Pyongyang, Expert Says

Joseph Krassenstein |
April 1, 2013 | 1:47 p.m. PDT

Staff Reporter

Nearly one month ago on March 11, North Korea officially ended the 60-year-old armistice that declared a cease-fire between North and South Korea, raising tension as both nations begin to prepare for the possibility of an attack. 

If needed, both the United States and China serve as nations that have the ability to either intervene as peace negotiators or become militarily involved. The U.S. has always stood firm in its vocal opposition to North Korea, while North Korea's oldest ally, China, supported the United Nations' most recent round of sanctions, being careful to resist stronger measures.

When North Korea and China agreed to become allies, both nations were weak, poor, and shared a hatred of democracy and the Western world.

However, experts say that the decades-old alliance may face a paradigm shift, given China's rise in economic prosperity and increasing links with the West. 

“I believe the Chinese government themselves are still indecisive with their current political alignment. They however are trying every possible means not to irritate North Korea,” said Xin Liu, Professor of Sociocultural Anthropology of the University of California, Berkeley Institute of East Asian Studies. 

Many, including the Chinese, have begun to question why China continues to support North Korea.Here are two primary reasons:

1. Beijing needs North Korea as a buffer zone. If North Korea were to fall to South Korea, unifying the two Korean nations, it would likely place U.S. troops closer to the Chinese border. This would both alarm and cause tension for the Chinese. In addition, a Dec. 2012 report by U.S. Senate Republicans warned that China would try to prevent Korean unification "because of its deepening economic ties with North Korea as well as its ancient claims on Korean land." 

2. The consequences of cutting off North Korea - China continues to fuel North Korea with both oil and food exports. If they were to end that support, it would ultimately lead to the collapse of North Korea, causing a humanitarian disaster on the peninsula and an unsecure nuclear program. Where would all the North Korean refugees go? 

In a way, China acts very much like North Korea's big brother in terms of leadership, guidance and support. However, China has a very important role in mediating relations between North and South Korea, particularly since it remains a large trading partner with the latter. 

While the U.S. also has an economic relationship with South Korea, ultimately China's historic and geographic relations with the country indicate a global expectancy for Beijing to step in.

According to Professor Liu however, action from the Chinese government will really depend on North Korea’s next step. “China will most likely continue to try to find peace between both nations but will not take any military action until North Korea does anything,” said Liu. “Even then, I doubt China will support North Korea if a war were to break out, China has too much to lose.”

Reach Staff Reporter Joseph Krassenstein here.



 

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