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Syria: Experts Discuss The Limitations Of Non-Lethal Aid And The Risks Associated With Military Intervention

Hayley Burgess |
April 30, 2013 | 12:06 p.m. PDT

Staff Reporter

Secretary of State John Kerry. (Creative Commons)
Secretary of State John Kerry. (Creative Commons)
With Secretary of State John Kerry's announcement last week that the United States will be doubling aid to support Syrian rebels in their effort to defeat current President Bashar al-Assad, observers question whether the aid will be able to make a significant difference.

Since 2011, the Assad regime and the Syrian rebels have been fighting viciously, leading to the deaths of more than 70,000 and the displacement of hundreds of thousands more.

“This is probably one of the worst humanitarian crises that has occurred in the last decade,” said Josh Lockman, a foreign policy expert from the USC Gould School of Law, citing the number of people who have died and been displaced.

“There are more than two million internally displaced,” added Edwin Smith, professor of law and international relations at the Gould School of Law. “And there are probably a million refugees outside of Syria.”

Although the U.S. didn’t specify what exactly will be provided to the rebels, they have revealed that it will consist of “nonlethal” provisions.

“Yes, it can do a great deal to avert further crisis in Syria, but what it will take is a concerted and coordinated effort by the U.S., European Union, and regional allies to proceed on a coordinated basis to aid the Syrian rebel forces,” said Lockman.

“It’s not going to be a game changer, let’s put it that way,” said Smith.

However with officials saying that Assad is now likely using chemical weapons, there is potential for further U.S. intervention. On April 25 the White House suggested that there was evidence of such weapons being used, but that it could not be confirmed.

According to an April 25 LA Times article, “As recently as March 21, Obama said: ‘I’ve made it clear to Bashar al-Assad and all who follows his orders: We will not tolerate the use of chemical weapons against the Syrian people, or the transfer of those weapons to terrorists. The world is watching; we will hold you accountable.’”

“The more likely option here is that the U.S. will intervene not only because of the humanitarian crisis, but because of the security crisis,” said Lockman.

Lockman, however, doesn’t believe the U.S. would go in with forces on the ground.

“At least the American public is not interested in another war with the Middle East,” he said. “This is a war-weary public and the case would have to be made by the media and the government.”

“The U.S. is in a really bad place,” Smith agreed. “There are Syrian rebels inside the country who don’t want any attachment to the U.S. – even those who are pursuing a democratic result.”

What the government will decide to do if the use of chemical weapons is confirmed is still unclear, but Obama continues to suggest that further actions will be taken.

“Horrific as it is when mortars are being fired on civilians and people are being indiscriminately killed, to use potential weapons of mass destruction on civilian populations crosses another line with respect to international norms and international law,” Obama said. “This is going to be a game changer. We have to act prudently. We have to make these assessments deliberately. But I think all of us… recognize how we cannot stand by and permit the systematic use of weapons like chemical weapons on civilian populations.”

But as Lockman said, the government must exercise caution, and has been doing so thus far for good reason.

“The delivery of nonlethal aid is important and there are plenty of reasons why caution was exercised,” he said. “We are not sure of what the make up is of the Syrian rebel forces.”

“The most effective military unit operating against Assad may well be connected with al-Qaeda,” said Smith.

In light of this, the government must plan each move carefully.

“I think they’re doing what they can,” Smith said of the U.S. government’s current strategy.

The biggest fear as of now seems to be that the violence in Syria will increasingly affect international security.

“The consequences of not trying to alleviate this humanitarian crisis are grave,” warned Lockman, “because we’re already seeing the spill-over tragedy of Assad’s brutal attacks pouring into Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.”

Reach reporter Hayley Burgess here



 

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