2013 NFL Draft: The Risks And The Guarantees
We are arriving at the homestretch of the NFL Draft season. Even perennially poor franchises have hope that their top selections will rejuvenate the organization, making it the most exciting day of the year for teams and fans alike. Countless prospects have been put through the rigors of the draft process, where a player’s every move is scrutinized.
With less than 48 hours until Commissioner Roger Goodell heads to the podium, we take a look at nine early-round prospects and the categories they fall into.
Worrisome Workout Warriors
These prospects significantly helped their draft stock into the first or second round with dominant showings at the Combine or Pro Day. Frequently, team’s reach for these prospects earlier than they should, despite questionable game tape.
Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU - The defensive end out of BYU can be flat-out dominating, evident by his Senior Bowl tape that blew scouts away. He possesses all of the physical attributes required to be an elite defensive end. However, he is wildly inconsistent, recorded mediocre statistics in a sub-par conference, and has only one year of starting experience. While reminiscent of Jason Pierre-Paul, Ansah’s selection as a likely top-10 pick is truly boom or bust.
Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff - This freakishly athletic offensive tackle prospect blew up the combine with a 4.65 40-yard dash. Armstead is a developmental project and faced an inferior level of competition in college. The late-first or early-second-round projection is simply too great of a reach for a player who is a major unknown.
Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida - Floyd is a solid player who will eat up double teams and be a disruptive force on the defensive line in the run game. However, the talk of Floyd being a top-five pick is too sweet for my tastes. In three seasons at Florida he has a career 4.5 sacks, and if I’m taking a defensive tackle that early in the draft, I want him to be a run-stuffer and a pass rusher—something that Floyd is not.
Plug and Play
These are the players who are ready to step right in and contribute, rock-solid rookies who strived at the highest level of competition in college football and are ready to start at the next level.
Robert Woods, WR, USC - Woods has the potential to be the most successful wide receiver in the draft. His polished route running and soft hands are second to none. If a team like the Texans or Vikings snagged him in the end of the first round, he would prove to be a formidable counterpart to Andre Johnson and Greg Jennings, respectively.
Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri - This behemoth defensive tackle from Missouri flew under the draft media radar largely due to a crowded defensive tackle crop, but Richardson will be the best of the bunch.
Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama - He helped anchor the Alabama offensive line for the past four years and is a quintessential plug-and-play prospect. He’s a mauler in the run game and a fortress in the passing game. Whichever team selects Warmack will have a steady presence on the offensive line right off the bat.
The Gambles
Holding up the rear are the gambles. These risky prospects force management to weigh the risk versus the reward.
Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia - This three-down linebacker’s talent is undisputable, but theft, drug, and alcohol violations leave Ogletree as a likely candidate to fall into the latter part of the first round. If Ogletree avoids off-the-field distractions, a team will have a steal; if not, he could be out of the league in a few years, a la Rolando McClain.
Tyrann Mathieu, DB, LSU - The Honey Badger personifies a gamble. His missteps were highly publicized, but his instinctive ball-hawking play will help any secondary. A team will take a shot on the dynamic playmaker and return man either in the second or third round.
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia - He's the default number one quarterback on a lot of team’s draft boards due to of a lack of elite talent at the position. He is mobile, can make every throw and had some phenomenal games this past season. While taking this into consideration, I cannot justify selecting Smith in the first round, let alone in the top ten. He disappeared towards the end of the season, and stares down receivers, all while having some of the most talented receivers in the nation last year at his disposal. Smith is a major wild card come Thursday.
That’s a wrap! Enough with the speculation, mock drafts, and smoke screens. Is it Thursday yet?
Reach Staff Writer Jeremy Shapiro here.