warning Hi, we've moved to USCANNENBERGMEDIA.COM. Visit us there!

Neon Tommy - Annenberg digital news

2013 NBA Playoff Preview: Western Conference Quarterfinals

Evan Budrovich, Matt Padavick |
April 20, 2013 | 4:42 p.m. PDT

Staff Writers

 

Kevin Durant has his eyes set on a title; can the Rockets change his aspirations? (Keith Allison/Creative Commons)
Kevin Durant has his eyes set on a title; can the Rockets change his aspirations? (Keith Allison/Creative Commons)
Oklahoma City is the favorite, but the Wild West is wide-open this year as late bloomers like the Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies look to contend with the Thunder and consistent powerhouse San Antonio Spurs. We've got all the preview information you need.

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Houston Rockets

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets dueling in the first round of the playoffs is the matchup NBA fans have been dying for, as James Harden returns to Oklahoma to face the team he helped carry to the NBA Finals just last season. The best matchup in this series will be Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant versus the backcourt of Harden and Jeremy Lin.

The two squads made a blockbuster trade just before the season, sending Harden to Houston for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, and a couple of draft picks. Harden has salvaged the chance to play his old teammates so far, scoring 29.3 points per game in their three matchups this season. 

This series will not be short of offense, as these teams are two of the top three top scoring teams in the league. Oklahoma City is a two-headed machine with Durant and the ultra-athletic point guard Westbrook, who combine for 51 points per night while taking 44 percent of OKC’s total shots. Their adversaries rely on a three-horse attack as Lin, Harden and Chandler Parsons put up over half of their team’s offense with a combined 54 points a night. 

Despite those statistics, do not underestimate the value of the role players in this star-studded series. The Rockets showcase the sharp-shooting Carlos Delfino, who averages 10.6 PPG on 37 percent 3-point shooting off the bench, while Oklahoma City relies upon former Houston star Kevin Martin (14.0 PPG) to lead their second unit. The Thunder control the matchup in the paint, with piles of bodies to throw at Omer Asik in NBA block leader (3.03 BPG) Serge Ibaka, hustle man Nick Collison, and physical presence Kendrick Perkins. 

---

The Thunder are the better team from top to bottom, but the high-flying Houston Rockets are playing with a chip on their shoulder, which will allow them to steal some games in this series. The matchup of Parson and Durant will be the X-factor, as both small forwards do an excellent job on the defensive end. That being said, Durant is talented enough to take over the fourth quarters in this series and fight off the run-and-gun Rockets. 

Evan Budrovich's Prediction: Thunder in Six 

How far can Tony Parker lead his squad this year? (Keith Allison/Creative Commons)
How far can Tony Parker lead his squad this year? (Keith Allison/Creative Commons)
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers

With a win over Houston in the season finale, the Lakers clinched the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, and most importantly, avoided playing the Thunder in the first round. The Lakers carry momentum into the playoffs with five straight wins, two of which came without their leader Kobe Bryant. The Spurs are limping into the playoffs with nagging injuries to Manu Ginobili (hamstring), Tony Parker (sore neck, left ankle), Tim Duncan (sore left knee), Kawhi Leonard (sore left knee), and Boris Diaw (back surgery). With aging rosters, the key for both teams is to stay healthy.

Despite the injury to Bryant, the Lakers still stand a chance against the No. 2-seeded Spurs. In the two games since Bryant’s injury, the Lakers have been sharing the ball more and are averaging three more assists per game in his absence. Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol are more involved offensively and instead of standing around waiting for Kobe to attack his defender one-on-one, they are working the ball inside-out just like everyone pictured them to play at the beginning of the season. The Lakers pose match-up problems inside with Howard and Gasol, which may be the key to the series. Tiago Splitter and Duncan have the assignment on Howard, who is too strong and quick for both Spurs.

The Lakers finished the season winning eight of 10 while the Spurs stumble into the playoffs with seven losses in their last 10 games. Since their early 17-25 record, the Lakers have shown some cohesiveness, going 28-12 since and overcoming what many said was impossible for this team. They now look to make history without Mr. Laker himself.

Key Match-Up: Lakers Point Guards vs. Tony Parker

Tony Parker has been having another solid season, averaging 20 points and seven assists per game during the regular season. Over the past four years, the Lakers have struggled mightily against quick point guards, but they have surprisingly contained Parker this year. He is only averaging 15 points in his three contests against the Lakers this year. The Steves (Blake and Nash) have to make it difficult for Parker to get going. The Lakers are actually a better team with Blake on the court, but asking him to check Parker alone is asking a lot. It is going to take a collective effort to disrupt Parker from getting the Spurs into their offense, including help from Darius Morris and Andrew Goudelock. They need to force Parker towards Howard and play up on the screen and rolls to prevent the crafty Spurs guard from getting the mid-range looks that he consistently knocks down.

X-Factor: Pau Gasol

Gasol has posted two, yes that’s right, two triple-doubles in the last three games. That is more than most players have in a career. Not to mention, he is a power forward putting up these numbers. Pau will likely have Splitter guarding him most of the series, which means that he will have the ball in his hands often and have a huge advantage. It’s no secret that Gasol can be one of the best power forwards in the game and when Pau goes, the Lakers go. If he produces in this series, I like the Lakers to score the upset. 

Under the Radar Player: Kawhi Leonard

As he always does, Popovich took a talented player and made him an elite role player in the Spurs system. Leonard is the third-leading scorer on the Spurs, averaging 11 points per game. He also grabs six boards a game and records two steals per contest. Leonard is capable of big games, especially with much of the attention on Parker, Ginobili and Duncan. He is also a lock-up defender that is usually assigned to the opposing team’s best player. Although Leonard’s presence will be felt a little less on the defensive end since Bryant is out, The Spurs need him to perform or else it may be the end of the Big Three era in San Antonio.

Matt Padavicks's Prediction: Lakers in 6

Can Stephen Curry continue his magical shooting act into the playoffs? (Keith Allison/Creative Commons)
Can Stephen Curry continue his magical shooting act into the playoffs? (Keith Allison/Creative Commons)
(3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Golden State Warriors

This is by far the best offensive series of the first round. Denver leads the league in points per game, while the Warriors aren’t far behind in seventh. Golden State features the best shooting backcourt in the league with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Curry has been on a scoring tear this season, and broke Ray Allen’s single-season three-point record in the season finale. David Lee is a double-double machine and a nice compliment to the guard play.

Curry has had to carry the load for this Warriors team, while Denver is probably the best “team” in the league. The Nuggets are also among the leaders in the NBA in fast break points, points in the paint, rebounding, shot blocking, steals, assists, shooting percentage, and offensive efficiency. Having said that, they also give up a ton of points. The way to beat this team is to slow down the game and run half-court sets, since it’s Game Over for teams trying to run with the Nuggets. Even with the injury to Gallinari, Denver has advantages at almost every position. Kenneth Faried and JaVale McGee are two extremely athletic bigs who can run the break and defend. Lawson is coming into his own after the departure of Carmelo Anthony, while Wilson Chandler and Corey Brewer have become solid bench players for coach George Karl.

As for the Warriors bench, the only players who consistently contribute are Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry. Mark Jackson has a relatively short bench, usually only playing seven or eight guys a night. And did I mention the Nuggets are 38-3 at home?

Key Match-Up: Ty Lawson vs Stephen Curry

Can Lawson slow down the best three-point shooter in the league? Curry isn’t your average shooting specialist, as he can create his own shot with his crafty ball handling skills and pump fakes. On the other hand, Lawson is an exceptional defender, so something has got to give. If Lawson wants to be somewhat successful against Curry, he needs to give him no breathing room and force him to drive. The Nuggets also have two shot-blockers in McGee and Faried that will make it difficult for Curry once he is in the paint. On offense, Lawson needs to get his team out in the open court where they are the most successful. His points will come to him, as they always do, so his main focus should be distributing the ball. Whoever plays their role the best will win this series.

X-Factor: Fast-Break Offense

Denver ranks first in the league in fast-break points with 20 per game. Their advantage is that guys like Iguodala and Brewer can grab the ball and start the break, whereas the Warriors have to find Curry to get the break started. The key for the Warriors is finding their three-point shooters on the break. The Nuggets gave up the most three-pointers in the NBA (687) and the Warriors were the league’s best three-point shooting team, shooting 40.1 percent. The air is thin in the Mile High City, so the Warriors may want to consider slowing down the pace on the road. 

Under the Radar Players: Carl Landry, Wilson Chandler and Corey Brewer

These three bench players are the keys to their team’s success. Landry scores 11 points per game, which ranks fifth on his team, while also grabbing six rebounds per game. But his biggest impact is on hustle plays. Landry is a player who dives for every loose ball and crashes the boards at every opportunity. For the Nuggets, Chandler and Brewer combine for 25 points per game and are the squad’s spark plugs. Brewer is known to score in bunches and brings a ton of energy to the line-up, while Chandler can lock up against a team’s best offensive player while stretching the defense with his three-point shooting offensively. 

Matt Padavick's Prediction: Nuggets in 5

The Clippers have only made it past the first round twice in franchise history (Keith Allison/Creative Commons).
The Clippers have only made it past the first round twice in franchise history (Keith Allison/Creative Commons).
(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies

What a better way to describe the Clippers-Grizzlies series than a battle between nice and naughty? The high-flying Los Angeles Clippers take on the hard-hitting and cash-friendly Memphis Grizzlies, with the Clippers are coming off their first-ever Pacific Division title and Memphis powering along with traded star Rudy Gay now in Toronto.

This matchup puts teams with two opposing personalities on the court, but will make for some good television. The Clippers have made tremendous strides from being only known as “Lob City” last season, led by a deep rotation known as the  “Tribe Called Bench”. Meanwhile, Memphis is a team that has lost their depth and now relies upon a tight rotation.

The Clippers have 34 points per game coming off the bench in Jamal Crawford, Matt Barnes and Eric Bledsoe. The squad has also shown flashes of brilliance in their 17-game winning streak, but also normality with their 3-8 stretch of late January into February. 

The game plan for the Grizzlies will be simple: Pound the ball in the post to Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, then let defense take over. This current Grizzlies bunch allows a league-low 89.3 PPG by stifling their opponents with toughness, size and strength under the direction of Lionel Hollins. Tayshaun Prince has also been a solid addition to the team, bringing veteran experience and savvy wing scoring to the frontcourt-heavy attack. 

Looking in terms of match ups, Mike Conley vs. Chris Paul should be quite the tilt as both point guards play vital roles in distributing the ball and keeping flow in the offense. Paul looked rather human against Memphis this season, committing three turnovers per game (his third-worst total against any team). Conley struggled to score against the pocket thief in Paul, scoring more than four points below his average in four regular season games against the Clippers.

---

In a rematch of last year’s opening round, the Clippers will utilize the improvement of their bench and the rise of Blake Griffin’s jump shot to best the Grizzlies. Randolph should have an outstanding series for Memphis, but his efforts will go for naught as the lack of perimeter shooting will stagnant the offense in crucial minutes. Los Angeles will use their veteran guard play, led by Paul and Chauncey Billups, to survive a scare and advance to the second round. 

Evan Budrovich's Prediction: Clippers in Six



 

Buzz

Craig Gillespie directed this true story about "the most daring rescue mission in the history of the U.S. Coast Guard.”

Watch USC Annenberg Media's live State of the Union recap and analysis here.