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Mayoral Race Q&A: Fernando Guerra On L.A.'s Buzz-less Election

Matt Pressberg |
February 27, 2013 | 9:21 p.m. PST

Editor-at-Large

Dr. Fernando Guerra is the director of the Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center at LMU. (michaeljblow/Flickr)
Dr. Fernando Guerra is the director of the Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center at LMU. (michaeljblow/Flickr)
Loyola Marymount Professor Dr. Fernando Guerra has witnessed the evolution of Los Angeles politics over the course of a long career as a political analyst, commentator and lobbyist. Guerra has been a close observer of this year's mayoral race and moderated a debate earlier this month at LMU, where he's taught for 28 years and serves as the director of the Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles.

The primary round of the mayoral election is next Tuesday, March 5; if no candidate manages to win 50 percent of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff election to be held May 21. Current polling shows Councilman Eric Garcetti with a slight lead over City Controller Wendy Greuel, with former talk radio host Kevin James and Councilwoman Jan Perry further back. A decisive victory in the primary is a real stretch for any of the candidates, who are focused on acheving a top-two finish and a chance to win it in May.

He spoke Wednesday with Neon Tommy about this year's contest, how L.A. politics has changed and whether longshot Kevin James actually has a chance.

Neon Tommy: It just seems like this year's mayoral race has a lack of interest by the general public. Why do you think that is? Is it just candidates that don't have the public support that maybe Mayor Villaraigosa did?

Fernando Guerra: I'm frankly surprised, because I thought this election was going to be quite interesting for the electorate, given that there was no incumbent running, there were several candidates that reflect all kinds of different parts of the city and different ethnic communities, so I thought it would capture the imagination of the voters, but it really hasn't. On top of that, not only are we going through a national and state crisis, but we also have our own fiscal crisis in the city.

I thought that would speak to more attention and more interest, but it just hasn't manifested itself in terms of the buzz that you hear people talking about it. Surely, the people I hang out with, because that's all we talk about, but for the typical resident, the typical voter, no. And we see that already in terms of the number of absentee ballots that have been turned in are quite low, and it's so low, that I was hoping that the turnout would be at least half of what the turnout in the city was for the November election, which would be about 35 percent, but I don't think we're even going to hit 30, the way things are looking. It's just a lack of interest.

The two broad, broad theories about that are always that people are so content that they don't bother to vote, or people are so disenchanted that they don't think their vote makes a difference; they don't think that whoever becomes mayor makes a difference.

NT: Do you think part of that is because Garcetti and Greuel are running well ahead of the field and they just agree on so many issues that people feel like, "if it's either one, it doesn't really matter?"

FG: Yes. I do think that if you pay attention, everybody knows that Wendy Greuel and Eric Garcetti have the most endorsements, the most money, the most experience and will probably get the most votes, but you also see Jan Perry and Kevin James [whom] I think have run very good campaigns that have the possibility of catching fire. They just haven't.

NT: [Talk about] Kevin James. He's kind of counting on a low turnout plus "Riordan Democrats," people disenchanted with City Hall to give him the magic number to make the runoff. Do you think if the turnout's low enough, he could pull that off and slide into second [place]?

FG: Many things would have to happen for Kevin to make the runoff. Things would have to line up perfectly. He has a path to success for his candidacy, but it's not likely. Too many things have to happen. Each one of them, individually, you say, "yeah, maybe it could happen," but he's got to really draw an inside straight, and that's just tough. It's possible, but not probable.

NT: We had [mayor of Newark, N.J. and 2014 Senate candidate] Cory Booker endorsing Eric Garcetti the other day. Garcetti's been polling really poorly with the black community. Why do you think that is?

FG: Well number one, part of it is that Jan Perry is clearly polling the majority of African-American voters. But compared to Greuel, she has done much better than Eric, and part of it is that she has wrapped herself around the mantle of [former five-term mayor of Los Angeles] Tom Bradley. She worked for Tom Bradley.

Even in today's L.A. Times, they have a picture of her and Tom Bradley—people are resonating. I don't think Eric needs the African-American vote in the primary, but he's definitely going to need more of it in the runoff. He doesn't have to win the African-American vote to become mayor, but he cannot let Wendy overwhelm him in that community.

NT: Speaking of Tom Bradley, the Bradley coalition—African-Americans and Westside Jews really pushed Tom Bradley for his terms, and then we had Mayor Villaraigosa kind of mobilized the Latino coalition. What do you think the realignment is now? Is there a realignment? Is it kind of scattered?

FG: I think what Eric is trying to do is create a multicultural coalition of Latinos, Asians, Jews and African-Americans. But as we just spoke earlier, it doesn't look like he's resonating with the African-Americans, and even when you take a look at the "Jewish vote", it's really splintered among various candidates. We've seen him try the Jewish community as the Jewish candidate and he's getting his fair share, whereas Wendy Greuel, interestingly enough, is trying to put together or has just been forced because of the way things are being played out, kind of a James Hahn coalition of African-Americans and people from the [San Fernando] Valley.

NT: Do you think the Valley may turn this election? That's Wendy Greuel's home base, Kevin James is likely to perform well, especially with the West Valley, and the turnout will probably be higher in the Valley just because it's more affluent.

FG: We used to talk about the Valley as being very culturally and politically distinct, but the data I've seen—while the Valley is 38 percent of registered voters, they're probably about 40 percent of the voters in the election because of their little higher turnout—they don't vote that much different than the city. And so there's not this really conservative base. Yeah, the West Valley probably is the most conservative part of the city, but it's not that conservative, and one would have to be careful about playing that up, because then you lose part of—the rest of the city.

So is the Valley significant? Absolutely. Is it very different than the rest of the city like it used to be? No. Is it monolithic? No. Does it stake out regional differences, if you say, "I'm from the Valley," are they more likely to vote for you? Yes. Because that's where Garcetti's going to say, "Hey man, I was born and raised in the valley too!"

NT: I know Emanuel Pleitez has really been pushing in East L.A. and South L.A. Latino communities. Garcetti is easily leading among Latino voters. Do you think Pleitez can become a spoiler for Garcetti with that segment of the electorate?

FG: No. I just think he's going to poll so low and even if every single voter who voted for Pleitez could have voted for Eric Garcetti, I don't think he pushes Eric Garcetti down to third place. So no, I don't think that's going to happen. If it does, this will be the second time that Pleitez has caused the Latino candidate to lose an election with him not winning, so I don't think that's going to be very good for Emanuel Pleitez. But I don't think it's going to happen.

I'd be surprised if he gets more than 5 percent, and does that 5 percent have the ability to impact the race? It could cause Eric Garcetti instead of coming in first, maybe coming in second, and I don't think it causes him to drop to third.

NT: The candidates have come out fairly unanimously against the gross receipts tax. Do you think once in office, a Mayor Garcetti or Mayor Greuel will change on that?

FG: Oh, absolutely. We can't do it. Where are they going to get the extra $400 million? Their plan is to phase it out over the years and to phase it out as other revenue comes in and shows that the idea of phasing it out would increase overall revenues. If that proves out that they would be willing to do that.

NT: In your neighborhood, the LAX renovation—I remember at that debate at LMU, all the candidates basically said "we need more time to talk about it," but again, once in office, do you think that was just lip service and they're going to sign off on moving the runway?

FG: Oh yeah, I think they will sign off on the runway. Even though I live in Westchester, technically it's the thing to do, they've done all the studies—I think they have to.

Read more of Neon Tommy's coverage of the Los Angeles mayoral race here.

Reach Editor-at-Large Matt Pressberg here.



 

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