warning Hi, we've moved to USCANNENBERGMEDIA.COM. Visit us there!

Neon Tommy - Annenberg digital news

NFL Week 15: Top Two Betting Picks

Max Meyer |
December 13, 2012 | 2:14 p.m. PST

Associate Sports Editor

A new offensive coordinator against Von Miller is not a recipe for success, Baltimore. (Jeffrey Beall/Creative Commons)
A new offensive coordinator against Von Miller is not a recipe for success, Baltimore. (Jeffrey Beall/Creative Commons)
Due to a great NFL slate (which means that there were a lot of tough spreads this week), I've had to revert to only two picks this week. However, no worries, because I am guaranteeing that both of these against the spread picks are winners. 

Jaguars (+8) over DOLPHINS

Remember the last time I suggested to bet on a big road underdog against the Miami Dolphins? The Titans not only covered the spread in Week 10, but they outright won the game. And that was by six points. In the last seven times the Dolphins have been favored by eight points or more, they have been 0-7 against the spread. Also, since 2008 the Dolphins are 0-11 against the spread when they are favored by 3.5 points or more. The Dolphins simply don't like being huge favorites.

The Dolphins also don't have much of a homefield advantage, which is the biggest reason why they cover very few home games. They are even weak playing losing teams at home going 6-24 against the spread in their last 30 games against them. In addition to the Jacksonville Jaguars being strong against the spread on the road (5-1 against the spread this season), this is Chad Henne's revenge game! While Henne isn't an elite NFL quarterback, he will definitely be seeking revenge against his former team that cut him. 

Sure, the Dolphins played the 49ers tough last week, but that still doesn't make Miami a very good team. Vegas is treating them as such, so take advantage by taking the Jaguars and the points. 

Broncos (-2.5) over RAVENS

These two AFC playoff teams are going in opposite directions. The Denver Broncos have not lost since Week 5, while the Baltimore Ravens have lost two in a row. The Ravens also made an unusual move this late in the season for a playoff team: They fired their offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. The Ravens will probably need some time to adjust to their new schemes on offense, and that will hurt against Von Miller and the Broncos defense. 

The Ravens will also be fatigued coming off two excruciating games: a loss to their rival Steelers and an overtime defeat against the Redskins. This team also isn't even that good, they have only two wins by double-digits this season. And while a lot of people think the Ravens are a great home team, in their last nine home games, they are a disappointing 2-7 against the spread. 

Expect Peyton Manning to continue his success against the Ravens, and for the Broncos to continue their success as beating the spread as a favorite. Not only have they beat the spread in seven of their last nine games as favorite, they've won all nine of those games straight up.



Reach Associate Sports Editor Max Meyer by email, or follow him on Twitter.




Craig Gillespie directed this true story about "the most daring rescue mission in the history of the U.S. Coast Guard.”

Watch USC Annenberg Media's live State of the Union recap and analysis here.