Russia may be loosening its ties with ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after signs of that his regime may be coming to an end. Lakhdar Brahimi, the United Nations special envoy hosted Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov  in Dublin on Thursday to discuss Syria’s future. 

Russia has been one of Syria’s remaining few allies that is outspoken against any tougher U.N. action to end Syria’s 20-month civil war that has left over 30,000 people dead. 

Recently The United States has said that it is considering a tougher stance against Syria because they believe Assad is planning on using chemical weapons on his own people in order to maintain what little power he has left. 

The diplomatic meeting between The United States and Russia is just one week before another Western-back Friends of Syria meeting in Morocco. The New York Times reports that “the United States is expected to recognize a reorganized Syrian political opposition as the legitimate successor to Assad.”

But chances of organizing a viable successor government are weak if Russia is not onboard. 

In the past Russia and The United States have fought over what the correct course of action should be in Syria. Russia has also accused The United States of medaling and calling for military action and The United States has charged Russia with protecting its Arab ally. 

 

The New York Times reports: 

This is not the first time that American and Russian consultations have spurred hopes of a possible breakthrough. In June, Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Lavrov and the United Nations’s envoy on the Syrian crisis at the time, former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, appeared to be close to an agreement that a transitional government should be established and that President Bashar al-Assad give up power.

But that seeming understanding quickly broke down, with Americans officials complaining privately that the Russian side had pulled back from the deal. A major sticking point, it later emerged, was the American insistence that the United Nations Security Council authorize steps to pressure Mr. Assad if he refused to go along under Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter, which could be used to authorize tougher economic sanctions and, in theory, the use of force.

It remained to be seen if the new round of negotiations would be more successful.

On the one hand, the military situation on the ground appears to be shifting in the rebels’ favor. Some Russian officials reportedly no longer believe that Mr. Assad will succeed in holding on to power and may have a new interest in working out arrangements for a transition. The changing battlefield, some experts say, may have led to a softening of the Russian position.

 

The Gaurdian reports on a possible plan: 

In Ireland's capital, one idea that Brahimi could seek to resuscitate with US and Russian support would be the political agreement strategy both countries agreed on in Geneva in June.

That plan demanded several steps by the Assad regime to de-escalate tensions and end the violence that activists say has killed more than 40,000 people since March 2011. It would then have required Syria's opposition and the regime to put forward candidates for a transitional government, with each side having the right to veto nominees proposed by the other.

If employed, the strategy would surely mean the end of more than four decades of an Assad family member at Syria's helm. The opposition has demanded Assad's departure and has rejected any talk of him staying in power. Yet it also would grant regime representatives the opportunity to block Sunni extremists and others in the opposition that they reject.

 

The Washington Post reports:

But the goal for the United States was clear. A stronger U.N. mandate would put further pressure on Assad to step down, and Russian agreement with such an effort would leave Assad with no meaningful international support.

Russia is extremely unlikely to back any military action against Syria, and U.S. officials say military action is not their goal. But stronger U.N. condemnation of Assad could help Russia persuade Assad that he cannot hold out. It was not clear, however, that Lavrov has any intention of pressuring Assad.

Russian intervention is likely to come only if Russian President Vladimir Putin has concluded that the Syrian regime ultimately will be defeated. Putin wants guarantees that Russia will keep its naval base and preferential trade ties even in a post-Assad Syria; one way of maintaining that influence is for Moscow to join international efforts to push and plan for Assad’s departure.

 

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