A U.S. oil rig (Creative Commons)

The agency’s annual World Energy Outlook report states that U.S. oil imports will continue to fall until the nation becomes a net oil exporter by 2030. The IEA also predicts the U.S. will become “all but self-sufficient” in what they call a “dramatic reversal of the trend” of oil consumption in developed countries.

But the New York Times reports that despite the positive forecast, the U.S. won’t be immune to fluctuating international markets. According to Michael Levi, the senior fellow for energy and environment at the Council on Foreign Relations:

“You may be somewhat less vulnerable to price shocks and the U.S. may be slightly more protected, but it doesn’t give you the energy independence some people claim,” he said.

With these projections, the report suggests that the oil trade will change directions towards Asia, and the focus will shift to creating secure channels for shipment between the Middle East and Asian countries.

The report also details how important Iraq is to the oil trade and predicts that the country will overtake Russia to become the second-largest global exporter by the 2030s. And if Iraq fails to meet their projected supply growth, oil pricing could rise by $15 a barrel higher than the projected pricing for 2035.

Read the report summary here.

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