Pot initiatives are up for consideration across the country this November. (Creative Commons)

This November, three states are considering decriminalizing marijuana while another three states have related initiatives on their ballots, putting the issue in the national spotlight and potentially creating pressure to change the national policy.

“If you look at the history of most of the state-national conflicts over domestic public policy, you usually find that this kind of cascade effect and eventually we adopt a kind of national norm that contorts with what’s happening with the states. That happens quite often,” said Janine Parry, political science professor at the University of Arkansas and Arkansas poll director.

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Colorado, Oregon and Washington each have propositions for regulating, controlling and taxing marijuana for recreational use. If the measures pass, these states will be the first to legalize non-medical cannabis.

Meanwhile, two propositions for legalizing marijuana for medical use are on the ballots in Massachusetts (Question 3) and Arkansas (Issue 5). Another initiative in Montana (Referendum 124) asks voters whether to continue strict medical marijuana regulations that were approved in 2004.

Arkansas’s measure has received special attention because it is the first southern state to consider loosening regulation on marijuana. The Arkansas Poll, which Parry conducted, found that the proposition is not likely to pass with only 44 percent in favor and 52 percent opposing.

“But the fact that it qualified is pretty remarkable and I suspect we’ll see a different form of it in the near future,” Parry said in a phone interview. “If the idea of using marijuana for medicinal purposes or just loosening controls on that substance in general is being seriously considered by a southern state, it probably signals its acceptance in the broader culture.”

Although opposition to the various propositions tends to be centered on a dislike of marijuana instead of concern about federal takedowns, broader acceptance of the drug could make it harder for federal authorities to maintain regulation.

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A Drug Enforcement Administration spokeswoman said the agency does not comment on state or local legislation, including the propositions on the state ballots. The DEA enforces federal law, which states that marijuana is illegal, she said.

Of the three considering legalizing recreational marijuana, Washington is the most likely to pass its measure, Initiative 502, based on public polls that show 54 percent of voters are in favor, compared with the 38 percent who are not. Supporters argue that decriminalizing marijuana will help consumers find trustworthy suppliers in addition to cutting down on gang activity.

In an opinion piece for the Seattle Times, Evan Wood and David Bratzer argue that passing Initiative 502 could cut down on drug networks in British Columbia: “From a public-health and community-safety perspective, since marijuana remains illegal in Canada, Initiative 502 has the potential to take away local organized crime’s biggest cash cow."

Some are less optimistic about the measure’s effect on crime.

“To think that by legalizing marijuana, the cartels would be out of business is just naive and absurd,” Yakima County Sheriff Ken Irwin told the Seattle Times. “Criminals are criminals. They would find a way to undercut the price.”

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State analysts project that the measure could bring in $2 billion in tax revenue for Washington over the next five years, half of which would be spent on substance-abuse prevention, research, education and health care, according to MSNBC.

Colorado is evenly divided on Amendment 64 according to statewide surveys. The state’s Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper released a statement opposing the measure.

“Colorado is known for many things — marijuana should not be one of them,” Hickenlooper said. “Amendment 64 has the potential to increase the number of children using drugs and would detract from efforts to make Colorado the healthiest state in the nation. It sends the wrong message to kids that drugs are OK.”

Hickenlooper’s stance contrasts that of the Colorado’s Democratic party. Two prominent Colorado Republicans — former Rep. Tom Tancredo and state Sen. Shawn Mitchell — have also expressed support for the amendment, hoping it will cut down on cartels.

The fiscal impact is unclear; Amendment 64 could collect between $5 million and $22 million in tax revenue, according to analysts’ predictions.

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Oregon’s Measure 80 seems least likely to pass. Forty-two percent of Oregon voters have responded in favor while 49 percent opposed the initiative, according to an Elway poll.

A spokesman for the Yes on 80 campaign suggested new college-aged voters could, however, tip the scale in favor of the measure.

The act would send 90 percent of the proceeds from recreational marijuana to the state’s general fund. The amount of revenue generated is still unknown, but there are expenses attached to the measure, such as operating the proposed Oregon Cannabis Commission (estimated $22 million each year).

Even if the measures don’t pass, Parry anticipates similar propositions rising up again in the near future.

“I suspect it will be the next cycle or two if the proponents can muster the resources. It’s not like our gambling measures that are financed by really big corporations," she said. "It’s difficult for them as largely a grassroots organization."

In Arkansas, a close call could be considered a win. “If indeed the measure gets at least 40 percent support here — 40 percent support in a southern state — I think it might energize its proponents to ramp up their efforts frankly,” Parry suggested.

Reach Staff Reporter Karla Robinson here.