No Republican has won the presidency without carrying Ohio. For President Obama – who has a slight lead in the Ohio polls over Mitt Romney - the state is seen as a firewall, the locus of his support in the Midwest and a portent of the turnout elsewhere in the region.

Hamilton County was not always the epicenter of a swing state. Republicans used to have an entrenched advantage in the county. Since 1900, only four Democratic candidates have won a majority, and the first three instances - Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s first two terms and Lyndon B. Johnson’s election, were all landslides.

In 2008, then-Sen. Barack Obama became the first Democrat in forty years to carry Hamilton County. 

The shift is attributed to record turnout – nearly 71 percent of registered voters participated – but also demographic changes. Since 2000, the population of white residents has declined by more than 11 percent, while Latino community – although small – has grown by 116 percent, according to statistics compiled by the Hamilton County government.

“We have had people move to Warren and Clermont counties,” said Caleb Faux, Executive Director of the Hamilton County Democratic Party. “Folks who made that move are more likely to be Republican.”

Yet, the Republican party sees the Republican egress from industrial centers to suburbs in other counties as irrelevant.

“Hamilton County went for the Republican governor in 2010, two years after the Democratic candidate for president won,” said Ashwin Corattiyil, Executive Director of the county’s Republican party.

Both sides are relying on grassroots methods to increase voter turnout, which Corattiyil said is crucial in such a tight race. 

Faux said volunteers have arrived “by the busload” from neighboring states like Kentucky and Illinois and as far away as Massachusetts and California.

Despite Hamilton County’s economic health relative to the rest of the United States – in September, unemployment was 1.4 percent lower than the national rate - both sides emphasized that the economy is a primary issue. 

Corattiyil said Obama has stifled the economy with regulations that “make it much more challenging for small businesses in [Ohio] to succeed.” 

The economy is important, said Faux, but other issues are in the background.

Kevin Macey, a self-employed Cincinnati realtor, said he still voted for Obama, as he had in 2008, and cited healthcare reform among the incumbent’s accomplishments.

“A lack of healthcare stifles a lot of creative folks who erstwhile stay with some corporate jobs,” said Macey.

Jennifer Johnson, 35, owns a tanning salon in Cincinnati said Romney’s character coupled with women’s issues influenced her vote for Obama. 

Faux said the Republican’s attempt to repeal collective bargaining for public employees with Senate Bill 5 galvanized support for the Democratic party – and pushed many voters to vote blue. 

“I had people walking into our office saying, ‘I’ve been a Republican all my life and I can’t believe I’m here,’” said Faux.

Reach the reporters here.