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Why Paul Ryan Is A Liability For Romney In Florida

Christian Patterson |
September 25, 2012 | 7:49 p.m. PDT

Contributor

Romney's choice of Ryan as VP may have hurt him dearly in Florida. (Talk Radio News Service, Creative Commons)
Romney's choice of Ryan as VP may have hurt him dearly in Florida. (Talk Radio News Service, Creative Commons)
The Washington Post has been covering a story about conservative frustration over Paul Ryan’s role in the Romney campaign.

There’s a belief in the far right sector of the GOP that the Wisconsin congressman is being under-utilized. They argue that Ryan offers the beleaguered Romney campaign a much-needed jolt of enthusiasm, and that Romney and his handlers are squandering an important asset by not using that to their advantage.

While Romney has obviously made his share of mistakes this election cycle (offending the British, the Palestinians, 47 percent of Americans, etc.) hiding Paul Ryan is probably not one of them. Even the most casual election observer can tell you that if Romney doesn’t win Florida, he’s toast. And Paul Ryan is definitely not the person he wants Sunshine State residents thinking about when they go to the polls in November.

Let’s review Florida’s demographics before we delve into the specific reasons why Mitt Romney should probably hide Paul Ryan in an underground bunker somewhere.

Almost 20 percent of Florida’s population is over 65 years old, a statistic that makes plain how important the issue of Medicare will be in the 2012 election cycle. That impact of seniors is magnified by the fact that they vote at a much higher percentage than other segments of the population. Throw in the fact that people over 65 are also less likely to be actively looking for jobs (and therefore are less likely to be angry at Obama for high unemployment rates) and you have an extremely large voting block ready and willing to judge the Republican ticket almost entirely on its position on Medicare.

In case you’ve been living under a rock somewhere and have no idea why Medicare might be a touchy subject for Paul Ryan, allow me to fill you in.

The Ryan vision for Medicare would turn it into a voucher system, as opposed to the entitlement program it is today. If Ryan had his way, the federal government would provide financial assistance to seniors to help them cover the cost of paying for private insurance. This position that doesn’t seem all that bad, in theory. But the problem for seniors is that the amount these vouchers would be indexed to is a number that doesn’t rise at the same rate as healthcare costs, meaning that the cost of healthcare would keep increasing at alarming rates while the amount of money seniors received from the government would stay relatively flat. It would be like your parents giving you the same dollar amount of allowance they received when they were children. I’m sure you’d really appreciate the money, but 75 cents just doesn’t buy what it used to.

The Obama administration has taken a vastly different approach to protecting the healthcare of seniors. With the passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), the administration filled gaps in Medicare Part D, allowing seniors to purchase prescription drugs at significantly reduced costs. It eliminated fraud and waste within the program to ensure that federal money went to care for seniors as opposed to wasteful administrative costs. In the two years since the law was passed, the rate of increase in health expenditures in the U.S. has dropped a full three percent from the average throughout the 2000s. Because the skyrocketing cost of healthcare is one of the major factors contributing to the unsustainability of the Medicare system, the Obama administration’s efforts to curb these costs represent an attempt to solve the root of the problem, rather than cut benefits for seniors. Is it any wonder that the AARP – an organization entirely devoted to protecting the interests of seniors – supports the ACA?

Romney can’t run too far away from Ryan’s budget plan. After all, it’s the reason conservatives who were at first lukewarm about Romney’s candidacy have gotten so fired up about the prospect of a Romney-occupied Oval Office. But not parading Paul Ryan around the daytime talk show circuit would probably be a wise move.

Obama’s lead in Florida is surmountable at the moment (four percent at the time this article was published) but there are some figures that are sure to make the Romney campaign cringe. Florida voters trust Obama more Romney on the future of Medicare by a full 15 points, a number undoubtedly fueled by fears over Ryan’s Medicare plans. Florida’s going to be a close call, but if Romney decides to give into conservative pressure and put Paul Ryan back out front, then its going to be another long four years for the Republican party.

 

Reach Contributor Christian Patterson here; follow him here.



 

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