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Skewed Polls Actually Show That Romney Is Winning

Tyler Talgo |
September 29, 2012 | 9:01 a.m. PDT


Obama isn't really ahead in the polls. (standupamericaus.org)
Obama isn't really ahead in the polls. (standupamericaus.org)

The most recent polling shows that President Obama is gaining a sizeable lead over Governor Romney in the 2012 presidential election, and many on the left have decided to call the race while they’re ahead.

But is Obama really ahead in the polls?

First, let me give you some background:

In the 2008 election, Democrats had around a 3 percent turnout advantage over Republicans, and there were about 40.3 percent Democrats in the country and 33.3 percent Republicans in the country before the election. Democrats received a 61 percent Gallup voting enthusiasm rate while the Republicans were only at 35 percent.

Today, 33.3 percent of the country is Democrat and 37.6 percent is Republican, which is the largest percentage of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report. Democrats’ voter enthusiasm rate has gone down to 39 percent and the Republicans’ has gone up to 51 percent. What the turnout rate at the ballot box this November will be remains unknown at this point, but the trends are fairly obvious.

American politics is currently going through one of the most widespread epidemics of all time. Polling companies such as NYT/CBS, NBC/WSJ, Reuters and many others are using Democrat turnout models that reflect 2008 data.

For example, every single poll compromising the RealClearPolitics average (with the exception of Rasmussen) that has been released in the last two weeks, oversampled Democrats by a larger margin than one that represented Obama's actual lead. Unless the experts in the mainstream media are predicting that the Democrat turnout advantage will be three to four times larger than it was in 2008, I would say that they are hiding the full picture, because they know that all that counts is the headline.

This absurd and infuriating polling data has prompted the creation of unskewedpolls.com, which reapportions the turnout model of every current poll to reflect Rasmussen’s last party identification report. After updating the demographics of all recent mainstream polls, unskewedpolls.com averaged Romney at 51.5 percent and Obama at 44.1 percent. The rest of unskewedpolls.com's data is shown below.



Of course, this would only be the result if from now until election day, party affiliation stays about the same, and if Republicans are in fact more enthusiastic to go out and vote. Still, the point is that even if both sides’ turnout were the same, Romney would win quite easily. The only shot that Obama has at winning is if his base can top its 2008 enthusiasm.

The ignorance of mainstream polls reflects the media’s commitment to getting Obama re-elected and discouraging Republican turnout by inaccurately reflecting the current state of the race.

Another example of this is the pairing of Obama with the idea that he is the one who can connect with the average voter (because we all know that in the middle of an economic crisis the only thing we need is a friend who understands us in the White House). The middle class has become a popular theme in this election cycle and Obama and the Democrat Party are portrayed as the champions of the middle class.

Being 54 percent of the American electorate, the middle class indeed will be a very important factor in this election, and most polls make it pretty clear that Obama is generally the candidate that people perceive as being better for the middle class. However, when middle class voters are asked who they favor the results reveal a vastly different narrative. According to a Politico/George Washington University poll, Romney holds a 14-point advantage among the middle class with 55 percent favoring him and 41 percent favoring Obama.

What can be drawn from this analysis is that you, no matter your political persuasion, cannot let the mainstream media do your own thinking for you. Oftentimes, things are different than what they seem and although it may be comfortable to live in a fantasy world where pre-approved information is handed to you on a silver platter, I sense that many people will be in for a rude awakening on election day.


Reach Tyler Talgo here; follow him here.


Editor's Note: Read a response to Tyler's article, "Polls Aren't Skewed, Republicans Are Just Paranoid," here.



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