Texas Primary Expected To Seal Mitt Romney's Nomination
The state dangles 155 delegates, enough to clinch the 1,144 needed to take the nomination at the Republican convention in Tampa this August.
According to The Washington Post, Romney's primary fate has been all but certain since the Wisconsin primary April 3, followed up three weeks later with a triumphant return to New Hampshire where he began his campaign a year earlier.
The Post reported Romney is expected to sweep Texas and become "an unlikely standard-bearer for 2012: a New Englander in a party rooted in the South; a man of moderate temperament in a party fueled by hot rhetoric; a Mormon in a party guided by evangelical Christain; a flip-flopper in a party that demands ideological purity."
And speaking of flip-flopping, CBS News reported one big name may be switching his allegiances within the Republican party. Sheldon Adelson has a meeting scheduled with Romney Tuesday at the casino magnate's Venetian Hotel office in Las Vegas.
Adelson and his wife had already poured some $20 million into Newt Gingrich's campaign in the form of donations to super PAC Winning Our Future. Romney isn't in much of a position to turn away from the prospect of more dough: His own super PAC, Restore Our Future, pulled in just $4.6 million last month, the lowest monthly fundraising total so far this year.
From CBS News:
While Adelson's largesse and that of his wife was originally limited to his support for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, he has indicated his willingness to support the ultimate GOP candidate who runs against President Obama.
So far, it is not known if the billionaire has given to the super PAC supporting Mitt Romney called Restore Our Future.
Is it possible the incumbent candidate is starting to feel a bit threatened? Taking something of the low road, President Barack Obama launched a new attack ad Tuesday, drawing on billionaire Donald Trump's "birther" comments and faulting Romney for giving voice to extremists in the Republican party.
Fox News reported the video comes as Romney prepares for a fundraiser alongside Trump in Vegas—though the candidate has distanced himself from the mogul's remarks. "I don't agree with all the people who support me," Romney said Monday, "and my guess is they don't all agree with everything I believe in. I'm appreciative to have the help of a lot of good people."
It's unclear whether resorting to attack ads is necessary for the Obama reelection campaign at this point. Moody's Analytics predicted his chances will only increase as swing state economies improve.
Upward trends in states like Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia (despite supporting Obama in 2008, Indiana is largely leaning right this time around) may make it harder for Romney to push Obama out, Bloomberg reported.
But according to Talking Points Memo, this is by no means a done deal.
While it makes intuitive sense that voters whose pocketbook hasn’t been hit as badly feel more warmly about Obama, Moody’s isn’t the only model out there. And a number of political scientists are skeptical of whether the economic health of an individual’s state, county or even their own bank statement, is a major factor in his or her vote.
“To the extent that the economy matters, it’s the national economy that matters the most,” John Sides, a political science professor at George Washington University, told TPM. “In general, people’s evaluations of the national economy are stronger predictors of vote choice than are evaluations of their own personal financial circumstances.”
With several months still to go before the election, predictive models can only offer so much when it comes to solid forecasting.