As a predominantly Democratic state, California seems like a secured win for President Obama in the upcoming election. A recent poll conducted by USC Dornsife and the Los Angeles Times found that Obama is leading each Republican candidate by a fair margin. Nevertheless, the poll also found some sore spots in the president’s campaign.

The poll was the largest phone survey of registered voters in California, calling 1,500 people across the state. It found that Mitt Romney was the leading Republican candidate but that he still fell behind Obama by 21 points. Romney, who receives most of his support from Los Angeles County and the Bay Area, visited the state this week.

Only 37 percent of those polled had a favorable view of Romney. On the other hand, 62 percent said they had a favorable impression of Obama with almost six out of ten saying they approved of his job performance.

The poll was managed by Dan Schnur, the director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at USC, who said the positive support is “not surprising” but that the poll does not necessarily prove Obama’s success in November.

“The greatest value of the poll is not so much to predict outcomes but rather to get a sense of the trends in voter behavior,” Unruh said in a phone interview. “We can get a sense of what’s most important to Californians.”

And what do voters care about most?

“They are very dissatisfied with the way he is handling the issue of gasoline prices,” Schnur said, adding that this will be Obama’s biggest hurdle in California. 

“They think he’s doing a good job on issues relating to jobs and taxes [and] they tend to be a little more amiss on issues relating to immigration and the federal deficit. But neither one of those topics causes him significant problems,” said Schnur.

Interestingly, the president’s health care proposal, nicknamed “Obamacare” by his opponents, didn’t ignite a huge response from his supporters.  However, his supporters did look favorably on his efforts regarding women’s health.

“It’s pretty clear that the recent debate over contraception has been a real benefit to him among California voters,” said Schnur.

Needless to say, health care has been a significant part of Obama’s reelection efforts, according to California’s campaign press secretary, Mary Nemick. “We are actively discussing healthcare reform across the country,” she said in an email.

Because California is so strongly Democratic, the state’s campaign has been less focused on addressing Californians' concerns- like gasoline- and more targeted toward recruiting volunteers.

“We are focused on building our field organization to energize voters in California and help out border states like Nevada. We make phone calls to voters to ask them to volunteer their time,” Nemick said.

“The campaign definitely puts more resources into battleground states, like Ohio, Nevada and Florida than in California,” she continued. “But California, due to the huge number of people who want to help, has an expansive and active volunteer campaign on the ground. So far, since April when the campaign was formally launched, California volunteers have made 1 million phones calls.”

Based on the poll and strong volunteer support within California, it would seem that Obama is fairly secure as California’s chosen candidate.  Even so, a lot can happen in the months leading up to election.

“Real world events change voters' opinions,” Schnur warned. “If the Supreme Court rules one way or the other on the health care package, that’s going to affect the poll. If gasoline prices go higher or lower, that’s going to affect the poll. If the economy gets better or worse, that’s going to affect what voters think. There’s no question that real world events over the next several months are going to impact what people think.”

 

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Reach staff reporter Karla Robinson here.