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Experts: Despite Weak Field Of Candidates, Brokered Convention Is 'Unlikely'

Christine Detz |
March 7, 2012 | 4:32 p.m. PST

Executive Producer

A brokered GOP convention looks increasingly unlikely
A brokered GOP convention looks increasingly unlikely
It hasn’t happened since 1932, when Franklin D. Roosevelt was awarded the Democratic nomination at that year’s convention.

But that hasn’t stopped political pundits from pushing the idea of a brokered convention to choose the Republican nominee for president. Super Tuesday will go down in the history books and no Republican contender was able to deliver a much-needed knockout punch. 

Two months into the primary season, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney holds the lead, thus far garnering 401 of the needed 1,144 delegates to earn the nomination. Those delegates have been hard won with Romney barely eking out victory over Rick Santorum in Michigan and the battleground state of Ohio.

Sean Trende, Senior Elections Analyst for Real Clear Politics, believes the chances of a brokered GOP convention are slim, but it is still a possibility.

“I had put it at 20 percent a week ago, but now that Romney won Michigan and it looks like he has a better shot tonight [Super Tuesday], I’d drop the chances down to 10 percent.  But there is still a rough road ahead,” Trende said.

Trende thinks that if Romney is able to come within 100-150 delegates of the needed total he would probably make a deal with Santorum or Paul. What that deal might look like is pure speculation but it is not implausible that such a deal would include a position in a potential Romney administration.

Though a brokered convention now seems unlikely, Trende says there is no question who the big winner and loser would be if it came to that.

“The person that arguable benefits most is Obama,” Trende said. “He wants this race to continue on and wants it to look as disorderly as possible. Within the GOP, the loser is Romney because he was the nominee in January and now seems to have trouble sealing the deal.”

Thomas E. Mann, a senior fellow at the political think tank Brookings Institution, said that though the campaign is far from over, Romney will be the Republican nominee when the convention convenes in Tampa in August.

“Santorum, Gingrich and Paul will stay in the race and Romney will continue to have some bad days on the campaign trail,” said during a web chat Wednesday. “But none of them have even a remote chance of winning the nomination, so it is just a matter of tine before Romney becomes the nominee.”

Both Mann and Trende see the potential for the race lasting until the California primary in June. It may seem unthinkable that it will take six months for Republicans to choose their nominee, but there are a few reasons why it might. For one, the political landscape is different from 2008.

“The interesting thing to take away from this is four years ago Gingrich and Santorum would have dropped out by now because they wouldn’t have super PAC money,” Trende said.

He concedes that Romney’s wealth and extensive network of backers works to his advantage in a prolonged primary period.

Mann, on the other hand, points to a different reason for the drawn out nomination process.

“This has been the weakest field of candidates I’ve ever seen,” Mann said. “Many factors are involved. The best of them [potential candidates], Jeb Bush, has an unfortunate last name. Mitch Daniels’ family was adamantly opposed to his running and Chris Christie was smart enough to know 2012 is too early for him.”

Romney could end the race sooner rather than later with upset victories in states like Mississippi and Arkansas where Republican voters are ultra-conservative but it appears likely he will limp to the finish line.

 

Reach Christine Detz here.



 

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