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Slim Prospects For A Brokered Convention

Laura Walsh |
February 20, 2012 | 10:49 p.m. PST

Staff Reporter

Sarah Palin speaking at 2012 CPAC (photo courtesy of Creative Commons).
Sarah Palin speaking at 2012 CPAC (photo courtesy of Creative Commons).
In 1982, the United States was hobbling out of one of the worst recessions of its history. The so-called “Reagan Recession” bruised job seekers with a 9 percent unemployment rate earlier that decade, while the Washington administration helped to barrel the country into debt by bandaging federal fund rates with disposable green paper.

Bank failures were about to peak at post-depression high rates and, to add insult to injury, President Reagan’s budget cuts were just beginning to take effect. Yet on February 26, 1982, the new president of the United States donned a black bow tie and rosy cheeks, and proceeded to woo the Conservative Political Action Conference as if ‘Reaganomics’ was already the stuff of legend.

It might seem that not much has changed. With an 8.3 percent unemployment rate, deregulation clouding the still-sore financial crisis, and a mounting federal deficit, many conservatives might be sensing a deja vu. Yet the GOP candidates have not been able to appease the fears of their audience like the one idol they all have in common.  Instead, inner-party fighting has met with a debate lull to culture rumors of a brokered convention. In a swirl of angry rhetoric and tired references, prominent Republicans addressed CPAC this week to pledge conservative values — presumably to secure or gain the presidential nomination. A closer look at a few of these speeches shows just why the potential for a brokered convention may be unusually desirable although highly unlikely.

The Romney Resolve

Not surprisingly, primary candidate Mitt Romney addressed the audience of the Conservative Political Action Conference with a message that simply couldn’t afford to appear moderate. His recent remarks on the “barbaric” policy aided by the United Nations Population fund and regulations that attack “religious liberty and threaten innocent life” have come as a cold-water shock to his usual lukewarm pool of rhetoric. The Romney who couldn’t escape a waffling persona at the outset of the GOP race may be reemerging.  This campaign devolution could be hugely detrimental to his frontrunner status as his bid for Michigan still appears to be up in the air. If Romney’s bandwagon fails to reach top speeds by Super Tuesday, a brokered convention would seem necessary to resolve the piecemeal support candidates have garnished.

All things considered, the bandwagon is probably just checking its brakes. Romney is extremely likely to gain more momentum by April, when campaign strategist Dan Schnur claims that the winner-take-all delegate awards will most likely allow a single candidate to exponentialize their popularity.

“The Republican election delegation selection process is much more backloaded than it has been in the past,” Schnur said, including that Romney would have to lose a few more high stakes elections for a brokered convention to be in the cards. 

On a similar note, the Party will better be able to rally around Romney's emphasis on unity by avoiding a brokered convention. The negative publicity that would surround the Republican party were a presidential candidate not to be guaranteed by the end of the presidential primary and caucus elections would strongly contradict that core conservative value.

The Santorum Sidestep

Rick Santorum managed to equate terrorism with Muslims, claim that every American immigrant has the same DNA, and somehow get a hold of non-prescription glasses. He spoke about his grandfather, then his father, then Reagan, then Bush and, finally, “the trenches of the social conservative movement.” It would have been a pedestal speech if the audience could have figured out any of his stances on the issues. By the end, one audience member innocently begged the question, “but how do we know when we’ve won?” The quetioner was referring to Santorum's planned triumph of conservative values but unclear projections of public policy.

Santorum’s deflection of the issues emphasizes the unusual chance for a brokered convention.  With the GOP candidate’s spending so much time attacking each other, some see a brokered convention as the deus ex machina to a civil war that has left the race low on credibility and bereft of a real general election platform. However, the miniature battle of issues has thus far beenovershadowed by the mission of the war: to beat Barack Obama. The expense, negative publicity and division that would accompany a brokered convention could severely jeopardize this plan, and it doesn’t present itself as a likely sacrifice.

The Palin Pass

The obvious appeal of a brokered convention is to consider a nominee who hasn’t felt the burn of the limelight in recent media coverage.  This candidate however, will have to stare straight into the sun in the general election. 

Sarah Palin is the picture perfect example of this; the rumored nominee was met with an extremely warm reception in her CPAC speech after having been off the map and on the road for the past few months. Audience members could not be quieted as she walked on stage, and erupted into “U-S-A" cheers while she spoke. Yet if her speech was one for office, the media might point out that a motorcycle is a pretty vulnerable symbol for economic recovery and “grassroots” can't actually be used as a noun. As Schnur put it, “the candidate is always greener on the other side,” but every angle is sure to be exposed by the nominee's opponent in the general election.

At the same time, the candidate clearly has longstanding appeal to the Tea Party movement, and might be able to secure a loyal base via a brokered convention. However, as Schnur pointed out, “historically, a brokered convention has meant that a small number of party leaders get together in a back room to pick the nominee,” a process which contradicts the Tea Party emphasis on majority power and public influence.  “It’s hard to imagine Tea Partiers or any other grassroots activists standing for that type of process,” he said. Let alone grass roots themselves.

 

With the frontrunner race heating up and Super Tuesday looming distant on the primary/caucus calendar, the temptation to consider a brokered convention is practical. A closer look, however, suggests that it will not be in the cards.

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Reach staff reporter Laura Walsh here.


 

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