Tuesday's 9th Circuit Court of Appeals ruling against California's voter-approved gay marriage ban set off a firestorm of speculation about what will happen next. The proponents of Prop 8 from ProtectMarriage.com are certain to appeal the ruling, though it's unclear whether they will appeal to the full 9th Circuit court or directly to the U.S. Supreme Court.

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When the case eventually lands on the high court's doorstep, the justices will have to choose whether or not to take up the case.

As Judge Stephen Reinhardt took pains to point out, the three-judge panel's ruling focused stringently on the circumstances of the California ban. As USC law professor David B. Cruz told Neon Tommy Tuesday, this could throw into question whether or not the Supreme Court will take on the case. It could also limit the effects of the decision nationwide if the court does rule.

Talking Points Memo's story elaborated on this point, quoting Stanford law professor Jane Schacter:

“It’s much more grounded in the specifics of the California ruling,” she said. For one thing, Schacter said, the Ninth Circuit’s opinion emphasizes that the right of same-sex couples to marry had been first granted, then eliminated. For another, unlike most other states, California already essentially granted all of the rights of marriage to same-sex couples, just under a different name than “marriage.” This means that Prop 8 was simply about the designation of same-sex unions as “marriages.”

“Those two things are somewhat peculiar to California,” Schacter said, meaning that the opinion doesn’t necessarily provide the basis for a nationally recognized right for same-sex couples to marry. “Because of that, the Supreme Court may feel the stakes are limited, and it’s not as necessary for them to get involved,” she said.

The decision, as many have pointed out, including the Sacramento Bee's Dan Walters, seems directed at oft swing-voter Justice Anthony Kennedy. Reinhardt's decision quoted extensively from a 1996 case that struck down a Colorado law limiting gay rights. This is not necessarily a safe bet, wrote Walters, who called Kennedy's opinions "notoriously unpredictable."

Judge Reinhardt, who wrote the majority opinion for the court, displayed a little levity in invoking popular culture through this memorable line: 

Had Marilyn Monroe's film been called How to Register a Domestic Partnership with a Millionaire, it would not have conveyed the same meaning as did her famous movie, even though the underlying drama for same-sex couples is no different.

The pop-culture reference reflects the notion that attitudes toward same-sex marriage are changing around the country. Veteran reporter Hank Plante writes on CalBuzz that to see how the overall debate is likely to end, just follow the "arc of history" and observe the changing views, even in corporate America:

Last November 70 of America’s top companies, including Microsoft, CBS and Nike, filed legal briefs opposing DOMA – the so-called Defense of Marriage Act, which prohibits federal recognition of same-sex marriage. The companies said DOMA is bad for business and it costs them money because of extra paperwork. Clearly, these big corporations are betting that they’ll be on the winning side of history after DOMA is decided.

Just this week, Lloyd Blankfein, the chairman of Goldman Sachs, became a corporate spokesman for marriage equality. What does gay marriage have to do with Wall Street? No doubt Mr. Blankfein is sincere, but also consider that Goldman Sachs – lightning rod that it is – could use a few friends. Besides, this is a firm that knows how to bet on the future.

Sacramento Bee editor Dan Morian cautions that, while Blankfein stars in a Human Rights Campaign video promoting marriage equality, campaign donations may tell a more complicated story:

As the nation emerges from the recession brought about in no small part by Wall Street avarice, Goldman Sachs employees, like most Wall Street denizens, are donating heavily to Republican front-runner Mitt Romney, not President Barack Obama.

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