(Gage Skidmore, Creative Commons)

Every day Iowa has a change of heart in the polls—showing surges for Mitt Romney one day and Rick Santorum the next.  The one and only candidate that has consistently polled favorably throughout the past few weeks is Ron Paul.  Mr. Paul has the base support in Iowa that will come out and support him with their vote no matter what.  That is important, and no other candidate can say that.  What's more is that the voter turnout for the Republican caucus in Iowa is extremely low—and that is music to Mr. Paul's ears. 

In 2008, then Republican candidate for president Mike Huckabee won Iowa with only 40,000 votes. Only 118,696 total votes were cast.  This helps Ron Paul's chances at victory.  His support in Iowa is energized, unflinching, and quite large.  Paul has consistently polled in the 20% in every poll during the past few weeks, which puts him neck to neck with Mitt Romney, who is also polling around the 20% range.  What puts Paul above Romney however is the support he has among Independent and Democratic voters that are fed up with the status quo.  So Ron Paul has some support among Independents and Democrats—so what?  This is a Republican caucus after all, why should non-Republicans matter? 

The answers is simple:  They can register as Republicans and cast their vote for Ron Paul the same day as the caucus on Jan. 3.  A great article highlighting this rule can be read here.  These voters are icing on the cake for Ron Paul. When they are combined with his 20 something percent support from real Republicans, he wins the caucus. 

If Ron Paul does in fact win the Iowa Republican caucus, he can thank his fervent base of support, and same day Republican registration for his victory.

Call me crazy, but I think Rick Santorum, because of his late surge in the polls, will come in second.  This leaves Mitt Romney, who will at that point fall to third.  Of course all of this could be completely wrong.  Maybe the Romney campaign will be celebrating  the victory tomorrow night.  Perhaps Rick Santorum will be the one Tebowing when the votes are tallied.  It looks like Paul has this one in the bag, but we'll know for sure soon enough. 

Follow Ryan on Twitter and tell him what you think here.