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Romney Expected To Win Florida, Then What?

Christine Detz |
January 30, 2012 | 8:32 p.m. PST

Executive Producer

Will a Romney victory in Florida be the end of Gingrich? (Photo courtesy Creative Commons)
Will a Romney victory in Florida be the end of Gingrich? (Photo courtesy Creative Commons)
With Mitt Romney’s victory in Tuesday’s Florida primary all but assured and Newt Gingrich vowing to fight to the GOP Convention, the logical question is what’s next? 

Romney opened up a double-digit lead over the former Speaker of the House in the Sunshine State since Thursday’s debate in Jacksonville.  A victory in Florida would give the former Massachusetts governor and venture capitalist two victories out of four this primary season.  But Romney was quick to point out that nothing should be considered set in stone when it comes to politics.

“I don’t think you can ever count on a state being in your corner,” Romney told reporters. “I think people look at what happens in the give-and-take of a campaign, and what the messages are that you’re connecting with, and hopefully that will work in my favor. Time will tell.”

And he would know.  Romney saw an Iowa victory reversed two weeks later, instead coming in a very close second to Rick Santorum and lost South Carolina to Gingrich after holding a 19-point lead a week before that state’s primary, though he did manage to pick up two South Carolina delegates.

Florida’s “winner-take-all” system means Romney will collect all of the state’s 50 delegates with a victory Tuesday, giving Romney a total 76 delegates – 1,144 delegates are needed to win the nomination.  Gingrich currently has 27 delegates.

The campaign trail will really heat up with contests in Maine, Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri by Feb. 7 and the Romney camp is not taking the foot off the pedal.  The GOP race may culminate on March 6, also known as Super Tuesday, when voters in the delegate-rich states of Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virgina will cast ballots or participate in caucuses.  Romney and Ron Paul are the only candidates on the Virginia ballot as Gingrich was unable to obtain enough valid signatures to be placed on the ballot there.  Santorum did not file the paperwork to be included in the Virginia primary.

How long can the Santorum campaign continue?

Rick Santorum may have won the Iowa caucuses, but he has been unable to convert that victory into victory, or near-victory in any other contest since.  He does not have Romney’s millions or the support of a wealthy casino magnate like Gingrich and money is an issue for his campaign.  His campaign chose not to spend money on television commercials in Florida and Santorum was forced to abandon his Florida campaign scheduled when his daughter, who has a serious health condition, was hospitalized over the weekend. 

There are rumors that Santorum may soon suspend his presidential campaign and instead focus on becoming the running mate to the eventual GOP nominee.  Santorum’s campaign has thus far denied the rumors and he was back on the campaign trail in Missouri on Monday, though it is unclear for how much longer.  

The Role of Super-PACs

The 2012 primary season has been marked by unpredictability and by the rise of the Super-PAC.  Super-PACS have accounted for more than $44 million in campaign spending this election cycle, compared to roughly $10 million by outside groups during the same period in 2008.

 According to a USA Today article, Super-PAC spending has been rampant in Florida:

“The spending is leaving its mark on Florida, the site of today's crucial GOP primary. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and his allies, especially the pro-Romney Restore Our Future, aired 12,768 television commercials in the state through Wednesday compared with 210 by former House speaker Newt Gingrich and his supporters, a study released Monday by the Wesleyan Media Project shows. 

"It's one-sided domination," said Erika Franklin Fowler, the project's co-director and a Wesleyan University political scientist. "If you have a television on in Orlando or Fort Myers or West Palm Beach, you are seeing Romney ads and very few pro-Gingrich ads."

The cascade of television attack ads is a "major factor" in Romney's resurgence in Florida polls, following his stunning South Carolina loss to Gingrich less than two weeks ago, said Matthew Corrigan, a political scientist at the University of North Florida in Jacksonville. 

"You can look at one ad and ignore it," Corrigan said, "but when it keeps getting pounded into your head, it has an effect." 

Four years ago, outside groups had aired 1,763 ads — or 2.6% of all the commercials — in the GOP presidential primary, Wesleyan's data show. In this battle, outside groups have broadcast 30,442 ads or 43.6% of the total.”


The candidates may claim to dislike Super-PACs, but there is no denying the boost they bring to a campaign.  If Gingrich is true to his word about staying in the race until the end, he will need every penny a Super-PAC can provide.  Campaign finance reports for the period from October through December were due to be filed with the Federal Election Commission on Monday.

 



 

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