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Analyst: Obamacare Likely To Be Upheld By Supreme Court

Jerry Ting |
November 9, 2011 | 3:28 p.m. PST

Senior Staff Reporter

Barack Obama is asking the Supreme Court to review Obamacare before the 2012 elections
Barack Obama is asking the Supreme Court to review Obamacare before the 2012 elections
The Supreme Court may agree to review Obama's health care plan as early as Thursday after an appeals court upheld the constitutionality of the law earlier this week.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ruled that Congress did not overstep its authority by requiring Americans to have health insurance, reported CBS News.

"That a direct requirement for most Americans to purchase any product or service seems an intrusive exercise of legislative power surely explains why Congress has not used this authority before - but that seems to us a political judgment rather than a recognition of constitutional limitations," wrote Judge Laurence Silberman in the court’s opinion.

The ruling comes as the latest in a series of lawsuits against the president's plan Courts around the nation have ruled differently, and the White House has asked the Supreme Court to review the case.

If the Supreme Court upholds Obama's health care plan, every American will be required to have health insurance by 2014 or face a fine. The law will require insurance companies to renew coverage for clients unless there was a fraud or misrepresentation of information. Insurance plans will cover preventative care and immunizations, and a child will be qualified for protection under their parent’s plan until the age of 26.

“Most people believe on both sides that it will have huge societal impacts, but they don’t agree whether it's positive or negative,” said Dan Schnur, director of the University of Southern California’s Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics.

Opponents to the law argue that the government does not have the constitutional authority to require Americans to purchase a product or a service.

The White House contends that the president's health care plan is legal and helps protect Americans.

"People who make a decision to forego health insurance do not opt out of the health care market," said Stephanie Cutter, an adviser to Obama. "Their action is not felt by themselves alone. Instead, when they become ill or injured and cannot pay their bills, their costs are shifted to others."
 
The White House can keep the case in the lower courts, but has decided to ask the Supreme Court to review the case. According to Schnur, the Obama Administration is confident that the court will uphold the law. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the administration, the decision would provide a much needed boast for the Obama Campaign in 2012.

“By going directly to the Supreme Court, they rolled the dice," Schnur, who also served as John McCain's communications director in 2000, said. "They are obviously very confident the court will uphold the healthcare law which will be a tremendous asset to the election. If they were less confident, they would have probably stuck with the lower court and stuck until after 2012 for a decision."

Of the nine justices currently serving on the court, Democrat presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama appointed four, while Republican presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush appointed five. The White House therefore needs the court's liberal bloc and one of the conservative justice to vote for the law in order for it to be upheld.

“[Supreme Court Justice Anthony] Kennedy has emerged as a kind of a swing vote. They only need one more vote, and Kennedy is the logical candidate,” Schnur said.

The new health care law comes into full effect in 2014 after Obama’s bid for reelection if the Supreme Court rules the law is constitutional. The law would impact 48 million Americans who currently do not have healthcare, according to the CDC.

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