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What Would A U.S. Veto Of A Palestinian State Mean?

Jackie Mansky |
September 30, 2011 | 3:03 a.m. PDT

Staff Reporter

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Photo via Creative Commons).
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Photo via Creative Commons).
Earlier this week, the United Nations Security Council voted to postpone its decision regarding the status of creating a Palestinian state. Now, the motion has been moved to the U.N. Security Council for review, which will meet for the first time Friday.

With a United States veto looming over the current Palestinian proposal, analysts have predicted the committee’s debate for full U.N. member state status to be mostly symbolic.

 Considering that the U.S.' position and vote will come as no surprise to the global community, having declared where it stands on this issue for some time now, the question is, if the U.S. is pressed to vote, will a veto hurt the relationship between the U.S. and Middle East and if so, how significantly?

Elizabeth Brownson a professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara and Middle East expert said she doubted a U.S. veto in the Security Council would have much of an impact on U.S. relations with Middle Eastern nations. 

“When President Obama announced he would veto the Palestinian’s application for full UN membership, this was not news to anyone in the Middle East," Brownson said. "The U.S. regularly vetoes resolutions that contain any criticism of Israel, and many in the Middle East view this as an endorsement of Israel’s flagrant noncompliance with international law. This could all change when -- or more accurately but less optimistically, if -- the Arab Spring brings about democratically elected governments that must be responsive to the opinions of their constituents."

Brownson said, however, that the U.S. should be concerned about the recent democratic revolutions of the Arab Spring spreading to the oil-rich countries in the gulf, which "would have the most leverage to compel the U.S. to adjust its positions on Israel-Palestine." 

"The plight of the Palestinians has long been an issue of great concern for the Arab world, as well as for Muslims worldwide," Brownson said. "Just how long the US can continue to obtain its strategic interests in the Middle East and have the region perceive it as Israel’s BFF will largely depend on the outcome of the Arab Spring.”

John Bolton, the former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and an expert in international diplomacy, urged Israel and the United States, "not to take it (the Palestinian initiative) so seriously," in The Huffington Post.

"You don't want to invest authority and legitimacy in something that doesn't have authority and legitimacy," Bolton wrote.

However, some disagree with Bolton's ascertains.

 Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics in Voice of America: 

"What we need to understand is that the Arab world has changed forever. Public opinion has become a critical variable in Arab and Muslim politics. There are awakenings all over the region -- from Tunisia to Egypt, from Libya to Yemen, from Yemen to Syria, from Syria to Bahrain. And the reality is, I fear, that the American veto will fuel anti-American sentiments, will mobilize segments of Arab and Muslim public opinion against the United States, will complicate President Obama's outreach efforts to Arab and Muslim public opinion and also his embrace of the Arab revolutions."

The French President Nicolas Sarkozy predicted that deadly reverberations would be felt across the Arab world in the event of a U.S. veto.

In an interview with The New York Times, Sarkozy said, "Who could doubt that a veto at the Security Council risks engendering a cycle of violence in the Middle East?"

One thing is certain: all eyes will be on the U.N. and the Middle East Friday afternoon, as the first of the Security Council talks play out.

If the Security Council rejects the bid, as they most likely will, the motion will then be brought to the General Assembly.

There Palestinians will seek recognition as a non-member observer state. However, this is expected to be a very long and drawn out process and could take even longer should the Security Council choose to postpone dealing with the application, as reported by The Star

For the time being, the U.S. and the world will watch on their television screens to follow the start of this saga and what changes, if any, will come from it.

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